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re: Wash Your Hands Thread

Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:30 pm to
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33292 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:30 pm to
My guess, from a numbers standpoint, is that cities are going to peak at different times. And we should probably stop looking at this as a United States issue and more as separate Seattle, New York, Denver, SF, Birmingham, etc issues.

The curve flattening unevenly can be advantageous if governors and mayors commit to mobilizing equipment, health care professionals, and PPE as they’re on the downswing of this. I think we see that happen
Posted by BuckFama334
Central Alabama
Member since Aug 2018
1826 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

Aubie Spr96


Two basic American principles are being threatened because of a virus, Freedom and Capitalism. It is extremely frustrating. Hang in there, chief. I believe it will all be over by May.
Posted by auburn32
Auburn
Member since Dec 2009
2167 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:39 pm to
I feel like Georgia is about to get really bad. We only test the severe cases, and send home everyone else. Our Atlanta hospitals are already at ICU capacity. I can't help but feel that our numbers are 5x what they are reporting due to lack of testing.
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33292 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

I can't help but feel that our numbers are 5x what they are reporting due to lack of testing.


I think one of the major reasons why we’re at this point in terms of government response is that we don’t know the numbers. And we don’t have a great statistical tool that can tell us what the total infection numbers are. Our models now are demonstrating huge variances.

Gov. Cuomo touched on this today but when it’s all over with, when we have the capability to find out who exactly had this we’ll probably see that most people had it and didn’t notice it, followed by those that experienced symptoms, and so on down the continuum. I think this will fundamentally change our healthcare system too. I know that we’ll come out of this with a much heartier national stockpile of medical equipment. Hospitals will be better designed to flex space for different uses and maybe finally medical professional programs will streamline courses, cut the fat, and expand our nation’s ability to adequately respond to these events with the amount of personnel needed.

I do think, like BuckFama said, places like New York could be reversing these measures sometime in May and that we‘ll get back to some resemblance of normal life in other cities in the months thereafter
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 1:48 pm
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
46175 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 2:07 pm to
The theory that a lot of people have it/have had it but are not included in the statistics because they were never tested would actually make the situation look better.


If that many people have had it and didn’t have major symptoms then we’re not in store for a huge peak like everybody predicts. There wouldn’t be as big of a need for hospital capacity.
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42555 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 2:10 pm to
The fact you referenced Buck as a legit source made me chuckle IRL.
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33292 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 2:15 pm to
Well I don’t know that I did that But I agree, for some places, that we’ll be on the downslope of this at some point in May and those places will lift their orders.

In Colorado, for example, it’s starting to look like some our mountain community hospitals have already peaked. They’re no longer at capacity and no longer sending folks down to Denver metro for care.
Posted by AA7
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2009
26678 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

If that many people have had it and didn’t have major symptoms then we’re not in store for a huge peak like everybody predicts. There wouldn’t be as big of a need for hospital capacity.

I’m with you on this, there’s just still the uncertainty of why it affects people so differently. As things progress it’s clearly not as black and white and “young/healthy people are asymptomatic and old/sick people could die.”

I don’t think every city is going to be like NYC, in fact I’m not sure any city will be like NYC just because of how densely populated it is. Like Jones mentioned, the best thing would be for cities to peak at different times so we can coordinate equipment being moved when a city is on the downslope.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
61547 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

Aubie Spr96


Its not just you. Do you have any idea how much this is costing my business? I do 70% of my sales in February-May.

It will destroy my sales this year and I already have all that inventory on the shelves waiting to ship. Its everyone right now.


Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 4:39 pm to
quote:


We may be bankrupt and destitute, but at least we will be alive. Amirite?!?



I too want to be buried with my money hoard in my coffin.
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
41051 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 5:12 pm to
quote:

Do you have any idea how much this is costing my business? I do 70% of my sales in February-May.



I feel you bro. We are fortunate that we spread our sales over several big seasons.

Here's what kills me: They've left Walmart and Target open. They've deemed them essential. They sell some of the same things I do. They haven't restricted them to curb delivery or to what items they can sell. In essence, the gov't has picked them to succeed over me.

I need to find out how the state ABC stores got deemed essential.......
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
36229 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

The theory that a lot of people have it/have had it but are not included in the statistics because they were never tested would actually make the situation look better.

If that many people have had it and didn’t have major symptoms then we’re not in store for a huge peak like everybody predicts. There wouldn’t be as big of a need for hospital capacity.

I’m interested to know what kind of loooong term damage to the lungs that the virus may have caused. Guess we will have to see later. And if those w/o symptoms have compromised lungs as well.

A quick article on the first point of interest. Possible lung scarring. Lung function possibly declines up to 30%
LINK
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
61547 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 6:01 pm to
quote:

Here's what kills me: They've left Walmart and Target open. They've deemed them essential. They sell some of the same things I do.


I feel you man but those stores also sell food, drugs and things necessary to day to day life.

Just hang on and we will all survive to fight another day. Like it or not, there are some shite going on out there. My wife is in her 22nd year at the hospital and she said she has never, EVER, seen the amount of sick people that they have right now. So many people on ventilators its not even funny


Posted by MrAUTigers
Florida
Member since Sep 2013
28280 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

New Orleans is on track to become the next coronavirus epicenter in the United States, dimming hopes that less densely populated and warmer-climate cities would escape the worst of the pandemic, and that summer months could see it wane.


quote:

The plight of New Orleans - with the world's highest growth rate in coronavirus cases - also raises fears that the city may become a powerful catalyst in spreading the virus across the south of the country. Authorities have warned the number of cases in New Orleans could overwhelm its hospitals by April 4.


LINK
Posted by MrAUTigers
Florida
Member since Sep 2013
28280 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 7:44 pm to
quote:

The U.S. Now Leads the World in Confirmed Coronavirus Cases


LINK
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
61547 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 7:46 pm to
I think we are in the peak here.
Posted by MrAUTigers
Florida
Member since Sep 2013
28280 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 7:50 pm to
Hopefully. I just read an article that 100 passed away in NYC in the last 24 hours.

LINK


crap, then again...........

quote:

American health officials are deeply concerned that the coronavirus outbreak that has overwhelmed New York City hospitals in recent days is just the first in a wave of local outbreaks likely to strike cities across the country in the coming weeks.


quote:

In an exclusive interview, Anne Schuchat, the principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said her agency is seeing early signs that the number of cases in other cities are already beginning to spike. While New York City is home to almost half the cases in the country at the moment, other cities are seeing their case counts rising at alarming rates.


LINK
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 7:53 pm
Posted by Placekicker
Florida
Member since Jan 2016
8040 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:10 pm to
Here in the South, I feel like we are about three weeks shy of the peak. New York is reaching their peak now. We are in for a rough few weeks before it goes down. Everyone continue to stay safe and be smart.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:24 am to
quote:

New York is reaching their peak now.


A lot of models have NY reaching their peak in ~2-3 weeks Even w their shelter in place


Problem we have is that lack of testing / quality statistics makes it very challenging to have accurate models/estimates

Posted by Leto II
Arrakis
Member since Dec 2018
21227 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:42 am to
quote:

A lot of models have NY reaching their peak in ~2-3 weeks Even w their shelter in place

shite...
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