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re: Wash Your Hands Thread
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:55 am to GenesChin
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:55 am to GenesChin
quote:
lack of testing / quality statistics makes it very challenging to have accurate models/estimates
This is true. Most complicated is the R naught, as the range of understanding is anywhere from 2-5 basically. And fractions of that number, even under aggressive social distancing, most dramatically determines the amount of sick and dead.
Peter Attia (Doctor/researcher most known for fasting and ketogenesis) made a youtube video showing all of the known variables on a NYT or WaPo simulator to demonstrate that point.
2
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:11 am to TheJones
quote:You just went super asian on us
This is true. Most complicated is the R naught, as the range of understanding is anywhere from 2-5 basically. And fractions of that number,
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:13 am to TheJones
quote:
Most complicated is the R naught, as the range of understanding is anywhere from 2-5 basically. And fractions of that number, even under aggressive social distancing, most dramatically determines the amount of sick and dead.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:37 am to AA7
My bad. It’s the basic reproduction number. Also seen often as R0. It’s the expected number of cases generated by a single case. It’s used to understand transmission
Typical flu strain is is 1.5ish. Spanish flu was 2.8ish, and this COVID19 is somewhere between 1.5-4.5, and that hasn’t been nailed down.
All R0 values live on a spectrum. It’s highly dependent on the scenario and it can be influenced by behavior. But it’s a calculation of how long someone is infectious, how many people they’re exposed to, and the likelihood of infection.
For most viruses, we can’t control how long someone is infectious (this is where a medication would come into the equation) but we can control how many people we’re exposed to (social distancing) and to a degree - the likelihood of infection (think vaccine, or hand washing, sanitizing surfaces).
Typical flu strain is is 1.5ish. Spanish flu was 2.8ish, and this COVID19 is somewhere between 1.5-4.5, and that hasn’t been nailed down.
All R0 values live on a spectrum. It’s highly dependent on the scenario and it can be influenced by behavior. But it’s a calculation of how long someone is infectious, how many people they’re exposed to, and the likelihood of infection.
For most viruses, we can’t control how long someone is infectious (this is where a medication would come into the equation) but we can control how many people we’re exposed to (social distancing) and to a degree - the likelihood of infection (think vaccine, or hand washing, sanitizing surfaces).
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:53 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:13 pm to Placekicker
quote:
Here in the South, I feel like we are about three weeks shy of the peak. New York is reaching their peak now. We are in for a rough few weeks before it goes down.
I have a bad feeling the rural south is gonna get hit really hard, especially in places that are just now doing anything to prevent the spread.
Yikes level article from the ajc about Albany, GA and the surrounding area.
LINK /
From the article:
But Dougherty County still finds itself, for now, with the state’s highest concentration per capita of patients known to be infected with COVID-19.
The state has sent two National Guard medical support teams to help.
“The problem is we just got it earlier than everybody else,” said Scott Steiner, chief executive officer of Phoebe Putney Health System. “I hope I’m wrong, but I think this is coming to the rest of Georgia.”
As the area’s lone hospital network, Phoebe Putney is at the center of the coronavirus storm. The sudden deluge of critically ill patients quickly overwhelmed Albany’s main hospital.
Late Monday night, the medical staff at Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital faced a fresh dilemma in the crisis that has tested the institution like no other in its 110-year history. Several patients were rapidly deteriorating in one of the hospital’s coronavirus wings, yet they couldn’t be transferred into intensive care because the unit was nearly full.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:27 pm to kage
Hooks says we will be very lucky to have college sports next year. I have no clue what I’m supposed to vicariously live through already. 247 sports should refund my annual subscription.
Edit: Herbstreit is saying he’d be shocked if there were any NCAA football and NFL games as well.
Edit: Herbstreit is saying he’d be shocked if there were any NCAA football and NFL games as well.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:37 pm to kage
quote:
Yikes level article from the ajc about Albany, GA and the surrounding area.
10% of hospital beds at EAMC in Auburn are c already Corona patients as of 1-2 days ago
Auburn has a large retirement population. They are going to have a hard time
Posted on 3/27/20 at 4:14 pm to jangalang
quote:
Herbstreit is saying he’d be shocked if there were any NCAA football and NFL games as well.
We'll have to just see and take this sort of thing day by day. People will go nuts constantly thinking what may happen in the future. Just need to control what we can at the moment and stay positive AF. I am already depressed about not seeing our team play the season out
Posted on 3/27/20 at 4:23 pm to AUtigerNOLA
quote:Best advice there is currently
We'll have to just see and take this sort of thing day by day. People will go nuts constantly thinking what may happen in the future. Just need to control what we can at the moment and stay positive AF
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:16 pm to GenesChin
quote:My wife used to work in the lab there in the early ‘80s.
10% of hospital beds at EAMC in Auburn are c already Corona patients as of 1-2 days ago
Had to take her to the ER there last November when we were in town for the Ole Miss game. I was shocked at how poorly they handled what should have been routine cleanliness procedures.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:54 pm to jangalang
quote:
Herbstreit is saying he’d be shocked if there were any NCAA football and NFL games as well.
NFL owners covered up concussions for years, you think theyd give up the 9-10bil for player/fan safety?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:20 pm to GenesChin
It’s not like the NCAA wanted to lose 325 million or the NBA wanted to lose revenue.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 7:32 am to GenesChin
quote:
NFL owners covered up concussions for years, you think theyd give up the 9-10bil for player/fan safety?
They are going to fear litigation.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 8:30 am to kage
quote:
rural south is gonna get hit really hard
Savannah,GA - early 30s. I went to my primary care 3 weeks ago with pretty much all the symptoms and was given flu and strep tests and a mask. We are so behind on testing, it's been a long 3 weeks in my apartment since then.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 8:43 am to sbr2
My primary care doctor never got me tested for strep or COVID; only the flu which came back negative. First week I had a fever, body aches, cough, and a white blood count nearly 19,000. She gave me doxycycline, and a couple steroid shots. 9 days later I only feel moderately better so I went to get tested. She claimed she didn’t have the tests which I found out later that was a lie. (All the hospitals that said they didn’t have any or lying. My wife knows every pulmonary doctor between Gadsden, RMC, and the Birmingham area. They definitely have some. My wife got tested as a matter of fact with no symptoms at all.)
My white blood count then was still 15,000+. She tells me then that I have strep but she didn’t test me because she didn’t want a negative imo. The doxycycline and steroid shots should’ve killed the strep. So they gave me arithzomicen and I’m about to be done with that. I feel better, but only after 15 or 16 days after I initially got sick.
My white blood count then was still 15,000+. She tells me then that I have strep but she didn’t test me because she didn’t want a negative imo. The doxycycline and steroid shots should’ve killed the strep. So they gave me arithzomicen and I’m about to be done with that. I feel better, but only after 15 or 16 days after I initially got sick.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 8:48 am to jangalang
quote:
Hooks says we will be very lucky to have college sports next year.
I think spring sports have a chance. Unless we find a cure soon, which isn't likely, I don't see how fall sports will be a go.
I have never trusted China's numbers. We are so far behind with testing, yet we are over 104K and climbing. People who show little symptoms, and don't realize they have it, are passing it on..........and so forth and so on.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:33 am to MrAUTigers
Another post from Hooks. He was responding to a poster that said he’s had a negative outlook on life recently:
I’m receptive to a new thread devoted to just discussing how college sports will be impacted by covid if y’all want this thread devoted to the medical side of the virus btw. It’s really two different issues and I know one is more important than the other. But the fact remains that of the lesser of the two evils that if no college football, probably no high school either and recruiting may change or stop because of it. Not to mention I don’t even think our current athletes are allowed to work out at all. There are questions of what kind of shape they will arrive in if no gym access.
quote:
Look I am very sorry if i have come across in the last few weeks as overly negative or the like. It has not been my intention at all but I became very engaged on this issue long before many might of have even heard of it. This is due to the nature of my buisnesses and the impact I saw very eary on.
Therfore I threw my time and efforts into researching how serious this might be and then ultimately realizing this truly was a mortal threat to our economy and way of life. Trust me the last month for me has been daily endless 5 alarm fires both with my companies and my own families saftey and health. We are all dealing with radical changes happening within a crazy short anount of time. As for many of you I know this has been challenging and at times frightening. We will get through this but its effects will be profound unless we truly fing a treatment protoal that can allow us to quickly open back up our entire societies.
If we do not it will be VERY challenging for us to fully be able to go about life as before. The earliest from all the experts I have researched or spoken to for a vaccine is fall of 2021 and that woudl be the fastest deployment of a full vaccine in human history. That would mean no way you could allow masses of humans to congregate in stadiums or arenas. It simply would be irrisponsible and legally dangerous. This is why your staring to hear sports "experts" sounding the alarm about no football being able to be played in the fall.
If that is the case sports as currently sturctured both professionally and collegiately will not be able to function with any normality. The economic model simply does not work and IMHO the economics will cause wholesale changes to everything. In a scernario like this all professoinal sprots NFL, NBA, MLS, MLB an NHL would be bankrupt without wholesale changes to salaries etc. Mayby you could have the leagues switch to TV only for a year but this would require all players to take vaslty smaller salaries as the revenue would be a fraction of pre virus revenue. The NBA admited they have already LOST a BIllion dollars in three weeks!!! Let that sink in.
Just look at the loss of the NCAA tourney has meant for colleges. Normally the pot for them is 600 million and now its shrunk to 200 million. Even power 5 schools would see their athletic departments tecnically bankrupt if there is no football in the fall. For most schools football pays for everything else besides mens basketball. There would be for AU as an example a 90 million dollar hole in the budget and I think we all understand what that would mean for AU. You have already seen a AD or two admit if football cannot go then they would need an imediate "bailout" to survive.
Let us all pray that these treatments under heavy trial right now work as I see this as the true silver bullet that can allow us to begin to return to normal sooner rather than far later. The tough thing we have to remember is becasue the world has zero herd immunity even after this first wave passes there can be a second and third wave as well. If you stuy the 19180-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic the second wave was FAR more deadly than the first. This is the struggle we will have until we have a true treatment or a vaccine.
I pray for the entire AU family that we all stay safe and smart in this truly unprecedentged time. I want nothing more than to go back to AU hoops and all the enjoyment it has brought me over the years
War Eagle everyone!
I’m receptive to a new thread devoted to just discussing how college sports will be impacted by covid if y’all want this thread devoted to the medical side of the virus btw. It’s really two different issues and I know one is more important than the other. But the fact remains that of the lesser of the two evils that if no college football, probably no high school either and recruiting may change or stop because of it. Not to mention I don’t even think our current athletes are allowed to work out at all. There are questions of what kind of shape they will arrive in if no gym access.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 10:49 am
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:55 am to jangalang
I’m good with either. The medical / government side of this thread is pretty dead anyways.
I’m very curious to see what this does to recruiting, roster sizes, scholarships, etc
I’m very curious to see what this does to recruiting, roster sizes, scholarships, etc
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:53 pm to TheJones
Agreed.
A couple tweets:
John Ourand
@Ourand_SBJ
Colleges have looked into moving football season up to July, August and September this season,
@SmittySBJreports. An abbreviated summer season is "an opportunity to play games when the warm weather could help prevent the spread of the virus."
Cole Cubelic
@colecubelic
We are greatly underestimating:
1) What relative condition CFB players will be in returning to campus
2) Amount of time it will take to actually be “game ready”
LINK
Another:
Bruce Feldman
@BruceFeldmanCFB
Have heard from several power brokers in college sports this morning who think this idea makes no sense and that there isn’t a sensible way it can happen.
A couple tweets:
John Ourand
@Ourand_SBJ
Colleges have looked into moving football season up to July, August and September this season,
@SmittySBJreports. An abbreviated summer season is "an opportunity to play games when the warm weather could help prevent the spread of the virus."
Cole Cubelic
@colecubelic
We are greatly underestimating:
1) What relative condition CFB players will be in returning to campus
2) Amount of time it will take to actually be “game ready”
LINK
Another:
Bruce Feldman
@BruceFeldmanCFB
Have heard from several power brokers in college sports this morning who think this idea makes no sense and that there isn’t a sensible way it can happen.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 5:04 pm to jangalang
Moving the season up is stupid. Delay it, start on time, or do not play at all
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