Favorite team:Army 
Location:The Promise Land
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Number of Posts:37852
Registered on:2/6/2012
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Option pricing was extremely weird back when it was in the $8 range. They basically were breakeven with strikes at the trading price

I was able to pick up 20 5/15 contracts @7.5 for $1.38 and 10 10/16 @10 for $1.67


Also holding a decent chunk of shares at $10.45

re: Spec Play - HGRAF

Posted by GenesChin on 4/29/26 at 6:32 am to
quote:

I’ve read a lot of car reviews. I’ve never come across a comparison based on how long the paint lasts. It’s probably not a common criteria for purchase decisions.


Because no one differentiates. If a car company puts it as a headline marketing/product positioning, it will get talked about.

Specifically the pitch is not that this paint matters, it's that it feeds a narrative/perception that the car is intended to last, down to the paint.


I don't know personally if I find this viable, just saying that good marketing teams are able to capitalize on small differentiators even if they don't actually matter
According to data golf, he’s the top rated amateur going back to 2010 the start of their database. Ahead of John Rahm and Jordan Spieth who are 2 & 3
ESPN is reporting that his buyout is only $10M

Considering Hugh Freeze was paid near $16M despite being off the scrap heap, Bama is just fine extendinghim
quote:

Why the hell did we extend DeBoer?


It was closer to a market adjustment than a true extension as his buyout is stupidly low and didn’t seem to go up.

Per ESPN The buyout is only $10M and decreases by $2M every year after that. For comparison, Auburn paid Hugh Freeze a $15.8M after year 3 despite dumpster diving for him.

I have 2K shares.

My father in law flew the kc135 and asked his opinion. He seemed to find the company and what they are doing interesting and commented on how this seems reasonable given tbe anticipated pilot shortage.
quote:

He doesn't even accept his $400,000 annual salary


Im not going to debate with you the morality of a person neither of us know. I will point out your argument on this is flimsy because you think he’s like us

Not sure you realize how not a big deal that $400k is to a billionaire. Forbes estimated his networth doubled in 2025, growing by $3.9B. For perspective, if Trump was paid $400,000 every hour in 2025, he’d only be at $3.5B and be short $400million




Also, it’s clear that people in the admin orbit are profiting off these prediction markets. It probably was inevitable with the rise of these things This isn’t a partisan topic but an America topic - it is dangerous if foreign policy/war have gambling compromised people around the decision making process

re: i bought LMND today

Posted by GenesChin on 3/18/26 at 9:52 pm to
quote:

me it looks like all of the bad metrics continue to improve


It’s really just that their pet insurance has really taken off. The rest of their business is performing pretty poorly and not growing fast enough to justify their acq spend


quote:

believe management when they say profitability will happen in 2027.


I just looked at their management team, it’s a bunch of people who have no background in insurance. It’s classic insurtech “disruptors” who overpromise and underdeliver



Maybe Lemonade can pull it off, I’d just really think long and hard on making any type of long term commitment to them.

re: i bought LMND today

Posted by GenesChin on 3/18/26 at 6:18 pm to
quote:

bayoubengals88


Out of curiosity, what do you think you are investing in exactly? What is your success story you are looking for here?

Wish you the best, I don't have a dog in this fight just sharing thoughts


re: i bought LMND today

Posted by GenesChin on 3/17/26 at 6:40 pm to
I have no position on this product. Wish you guys the best, I’m not a financial analyst so wtf do I know. Unless the bet is them dominant a pet ins mkt that mkt will 10x not sure I see their road to profitable growth

Just posting since Bayou asked me to in another thread

re: i bought LMND today

Posted by GenesChin on 3/17/26 at 6:39 pm to



quote:

But the core AI-in-pricing claim and sustained trends are stronger in the actual filings/letter


I’m just relaying what people w/ experience there or familiar with them think.
Lemonade’s AI pricing argument is straightforward it should either allow you to undercut competitors on price or capture more margin through lower loss ratios. Lemonade hasn’t achieved either from what I can tell.

Homeowners is better than industry avg which is a win but they also carry more expensive reinsurance and own most of their own CAT risk which is scary AF. Their auto insurance is well behind typically in mid 80% leaving almost no margin while Progressive and GEICO which are in the 60s% protected by brand reputation value. Pet insurance is about industry avg. They basically are in line with competition to slightly worse in Auto

Their growth is very concerning though. They lag the market in homeowners. They had a 50% increase in auto but given their small base + industry growth I’d consider that disappointing considering how close to commodity pricing auto is. Pet insurance is legit growth deserve credit for that but they now are a top player in that space now. Have to ask how much more room for growth

All things considered, that isn’t crazy growth given their acquisition spend.




So if their AI strategy really is industry leading, where TF is their lead? It isn’t showing up in their financials or growth.


Also unclear what type of moat they’d have as an advantage that competitors couldn’t copy

re: i bought LMND today

Posted by GenesChin on 3/17/26 at 9:40 am to
quote:

bayoubengals88


It’s a bit stale info at this point but at actuarial conferences/ communities, lemonade is generally viewed as an insurtech that promotes AI/industry shaker but that isn’t actually using it in pricing to the level of differentiator. It’s more for marketing, acquisition and claims adjudication (if it is being done). You can look up their filings it’s public data, I skimmed a couple and nothing stood out as revolutionary from a rating / pricing perspective- most PC firms are pretty adept at using machine learning and advanced stats to rate risk anyways

I’m not as familiar with the P&C space financials but from what I do know they don’t have attractive margins that’s a differentiator but their acquisition expense seems to run really hot.



Just quick glance at their investor letter, they are claiming to have improving loss ratios / UW margin, in force growth vs opex excl acq exp growth suggesting good news

I am dubious on skim through

- P&C space your acquisition expenses are incredibly high , Lemonade has unusually high acq expense as a growing insurer, to exclude is pretty suspect

The improved loss ratios seem to be coming from mix of business / growth in sectors such as Pet Insurance + some an unusual Q4 experience in homeowner/auto that seems to be reserve driven. Not sure the sustained growth in pet insurance and anomaly in experience is to be banked on





All that said, they claim to be an AI driven disruptor. Probably will 10x over next year no matter what their operations and financials do
quote:

do have a feeling that LMND will be a 10x in time


Lemonade the insurance company? That place is considered a dumpster fire hemorrhaging money in the actuarial community

I’m not saying AI insurtech is a bad investment but Lemonades AI claims are dubious at best. Maybe not Root bad but in the neighborhood
quote:

Hard to believe this theme was approved when Pixar only makes media for kids and their parent company owns Disney+


Or they just are confident enough that people won’t break the addiction
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think that has already happened. The portal window signings this year was a much bigger story than NSD.


In a weird way though HS recruiting is going to still be super important to build relationships and comfort with a program. Transfers have a relatively short window to build relationships/visit programs, having a strong relationship from HS recruiting should help a staff get the early jump at a transfer


Golesh kind of alluded to that in past interviews
I’m hoping for 7-5 and will be okay with 6-6 if we show signs of life


Hugh offense never showed signs of life. Even if we lucked out and won 6 or 7 this year, I still wouldn’t believe Hugh was close.
quote:

There’s only one reason for the outrage: It’s ALABAMA. Period


Considering how stupid and inconsistent NCAA is I hope he wins in court as a middle finger to NCAA as they deserve it for the BS they have been pulling


In general though, I hope they eventually enforce rules against this. Seems absurd to think Lebron could come back and play college ball.


It feels similar in golf how they are letting a guy who played on the PGA tour qualify again as an "amateur" or how people believe in being born again virgins
quote:

L I take you that you call it a loss for the year?


No, was on phone and accidentally hit an L before submitting I guess :lol:

Was a legit question, wanted to know vibes/ what people thought re where we are and project to be since I haven't be able to closely follow
So now we are transitioning to slower portal period, how does everyone feel re incoming/outcoming and how our staff did?

re: Hugh Freeze Lands New Job

Posted by GenesChin on 1/10/26 at 6:29 pm to
quote:

hate that we keep paying these dumbass huge payout


All things considered I think Hughs was relatively tame vs some of the other ones we have paid
What did people think of Cignetti when he was at Bama?