GenesChin
| Favorite team: | Army  |
| Location: | The Promise Land |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 37845 |
| Registered on: | 2/6/2012 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: i bought LMND today
Posted by GenesChin on 3/18/26 at 9:52 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
me it looks like all of the bad metrics continue to improve
It’s really just that their pet insurance has really taken off. The rest of their business is performing pretty poorly and not growing fast enough to justify their acq spend
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believe management when they say profitability will happen in 2027.
I just looked at their management team, it’s a bunch of people who have no background in insurance. It’s classic insurtech “disruptors” who overpromise and underdeliver
Maybe Lemonade can pull it off, I’d just really think long and hard on making any type of long term commitment to them.
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re: i bought LMND today
Posted by GenesChin on 3/18/26 at 6:18 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
bayoubengals88
Out of curiosity, what do you think you are investing in exactly? What is your success story you are looking for here?
Wish you the best, I don't have a dog in this fight just sharing thoughts
I have no position on this product. Wish you guys the best, I’m not a financial analyst so wtf do I know. Unless the bet is them dominant a pet ins mkt that mkt will 10x not sure I see their road to profitable growth
Just posting since Bayou asked me to in another thread
Just posting since Bayou asked me to in another thread
re: i bought LMND today
Posted by GenesChin on 3/17/26 at 6:39 pm to bayoubengals88
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But the core AI-in-pricing claim and sustained trends are stronger in the actual filings/letter
I’m just relaying what people w/ experience there or familiar with them think.
Lemonade’s AI pricing argument is straightforward it should either allow you to undercut competitors on price or capture more margin through lower loss ratios. Lemonade hasn’t achieved either from what I can tell.
Homeowners is better than industry avg which is a win but they also carry more expensive reinsurance and own most of their own CAT risk which is scary AF. Their auto insurance is well behind typically in mid 80% leaving almost no margin while Progressive and GEICO which are in the 60s% protected by brand reputation value. Pet insurance is about industry avg. They basically are in line with competition to slightly worse in Auto
Their growth is very concerning though. They lag the market in homeowners. They had a 50% increase in auto but given their small base + industry growth I’d consider that disappointing considering how close to commodity pricing auto is. Pet insurance is legit growth deserve credit for that but they now are a top player in that space now. Have to ask how much more room for growth
All things considered, that isn’t crazy growth given their acquisition spend.
So if their AI strategy really is industry leading, where TF is their lead? It isn’t showing up in their financials or growth.
Also unclear what type of moat they’d have as an advantage that competitors couldn’t copy
re: i bought LMND today
Posted by GenesChin on 3/17/26 at 9:40 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
bayoubengals88
It’s a bit stale info at this point but at actuarial conferences/ communities, lemonade is generally viewed as an insurtech that promotes AI/industry shaker but that isn’t actually using it in pricing to the level of differentiator. It’s more for marketing, acquisition and claims adjudication (if it is being done). You can look up their filings it’s public data, I skimmed a couple and nothing stood out as revolutionary from a rating / pricing perspective- most PC firms are pretty adept at using machine learning and advanced stats to rate risk anyways
I’m not as familiar with the P&C space financials but from what I do know they don’t have attractive margins that’s a differentiator but their acquisition expense seems to run really hot.
Just quick glance at their investor letter, they are claiming to have improving loss ratios / UW margin, in force growth vs opex excl acq exp growth suggesting good news
I am dubious on skim through
- P&C space your acquisition expenses are incredibly high , Lemonade has unusually high acq expense as a growing insurer, to exclude is pretty suspect
The improved loss ratios seem to be coming from mix of business / growth in sectors such as Pet Insurance + some an unusual Q4 experience in homeowner/auto that seems to be reserve driven. Not sure the sustained growth in pet insurance and anomaly in experience is to be banked on
All that said, they claim to be an AI driven disruptor. Probably will 10x over next year no matter what their operations and financials do
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by GenesChin on 3/16/26 at 7:39 pm to bayoubengals88
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do have a feeling that LMND will be a 10x in time
Lemonade the insurance company? That place is considered a dumpster fire hemorrhaging money in the actuarial community
I’m not saying AI insurtech is a bad investment but Lemonades AI claims are dubious at best. Maybe not Root bad but in the neighborhood
re: Toy Story 5 Official Trailer #1
Posted by GenesChin on 2/21/26 at 6:58 pm to Upperdecker
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Hard to believe this theme was approved when Pixar only makes media for kids and their parent company owns Disney+
Or they just are confident enough that people won’t break the addiction
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think that has already happened. The portal window signings this year was a much bigger story than NSD.
In a weird way though HS recruiting is going to still be super important to build relationships and comfort with a program. Transfers have a relatively short window to build relationships/visit programs, having a strong relationship from HS recruiting should help a staff get the early jump at a transfer
Golesh kind of alluded to that in past interviews
re: Portal Extravaganza - Walker/Texas tackle returns! edition
Posted by GenesChin on 1/24/26 at 4:19 pm to Poker Dough
I’m hoping for 7-5 and will be okay with 6-6 if we show signs of life
Hugh offense never showed signs of life. Even if we lucked out and won 6 or 7 this year, I still wouldn’t believe Hugh was close.
Hugh offense never showed signs of life. Even if we lucked out and won 6 or 7 this year, I still wouldn’t believe Hugh was close.
re: Charles Bediako Suing NCAA for immediate Eligibility.
Posted by GenesChin on 1/22/26 at 7:23 pm to bamacj1999
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There’s only one reason for the outrage: It’s ALABAMA. Period
Considering how stupid and inconsistent NCAA is I hope he wins in court as a middle finger to NCAA as they deserve it for the BS they have been pulling
In general though, I hope they eventually enforce rules against this. Seems absurd to think Lebron could come back and play college ball.
It feels similar in golf how they are letting a guy who played on the PGA tour qualify again as an "amateur" or how people believe in being born again virgins
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L I take you that you call it a loss for the year?
No, was on phone and accidentally hit an L before submitting I guess :lol:
Was a legit question, wanted to know vibes/ what people thought re where we are and project to be since I haven't be able to closely follow
So now we are transitioning to slower portal period, how does everyone feel re incoming/outcoming and how our staff did?
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hate that we keep paying these dumbass huge payout
All things considered I think Hughs was relatively tame vs some of the other ones we have paid
What did people think of Cignetti when he was at Bama?
re: Portal Extravaganza - Walker/Texas tackle returns! edition
Posted by GenesChin on 1/9/26 at 5:56 am to trinidadtiger
Hoke has been tweeting that some changes re revenue sharing rules and contract language will make bailing early more difficult unless new school comps old school
.... If I'm interpreting his tweets correctly.
Ultimately I think that's the right solution. Kids can still transfer but new schools have to essentially buy the contract out from the school they're leaving
.... If I'm interpreting his tweets correctly.
Ultimately I think that's the right solution. Kids can still transfer but new schools have to essentially buy the contract out from the school they're leaving
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Competitive offer” if it’s competitive why we losing all those “competitions”?
We seem to be losing a few too many.
That said, right now UGA wins, plays in CFP and puts kids in the NFL. It shouldn’t be shocking a kid chooses them over a program with on a multi year losing streak and a coaching staff that’s largely new
I’d be concerned if we started losing a lot of these kids to mid tier teams like South Carolina or FSU
re: Portal Extravaganza - Walker/Texas tackle returns! edition
Posted by GenesChin on 1/6/26 at 8:52 am to jvilletiger25
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Guys like Gus and Hew love hiring their buddies
To be fair, for Gus’ offense / style JB Grimes coached his butt off, especially in the run game.
If that guy recruited at even an avg level he’d have been an elite OL coach
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People have a different take than you
It’s not your opinion but you being a prick that people get annoyed by.
There’s nothing out there to suggest Golesh is doing good or bad. Plenty to express concern/worry about even though This is pretty run of the mill for losing program, new coach and portal era. That’s not the problem with your posts though
If one were to read only your posts though, one would think Golesh is doing so bad that we should try to hire Hugh Freeze or Harsin back.
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Take off the orange and blue glasses for a sec.
I have a well documented history of being pretty negative about Auburn athletics. So I feel pretty confident in saying it’s just you acting like a prima donna bitch
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Soo trying to get a synopsis of what’s going on
The synopsis is that you still are being an insufferable prick about the hire. Who knows if Golesh will work out but as of right now there’s nothing he’s doing that is unreasonable.
Maybe it is hard to recruit and retain players at a school who hasn’t won 10 games in about a decade + we don’t have a Texas Tech level booster writing checks for anyone on our wish list
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but good luck getting a bunch of kids and agents to buy into that when they know the next school will just pay them.
I'm guessing the intent is that we pay well above going rate for hitting performance incentives. If a player believes they are All SEC material, they would make more money playing at Auburn
I'd imagine it would play well and get more booster commitment too. The boosters are only writing big checks when we win
Finally from a team culture standpoint, the guys who are willing to bet on themselves usually are guys who work harder than others. It's a good way to weed out those who collect and coast
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agree. And I want Cam. However he isnt George Pickens. We need OL/DL and need to over pay right now for it. I would try and chat with Lew and Chaplin again
I'll die on the hill that spending $ on OL/DL will win more games than spending on Cam Coleman
If it wasn't for fan base reactions/perception, I'd think the coaching staff would be at peace about freeing up Cam's money
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