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re: Wash Your Hands Thread
Posted on 3/28/20 at 5:19 pm to HailToTheChiz
Posted on 3/28/20 at 5:19 pm to HailToTheChiz
I’m no fan. No doubt about it though it does show the desperation in finding a solution.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:06 am to GenesChin
quote:
Problem we have is that lack of testing / quality statistics makes it very challenging to have accurate models/estimates
Even with relatively clean data, doing any kind of regression model to map a logistics curve to that data and extrapolate it to find, say, the eventual number of cases or even just when you expect the apex on a curve showing number of new cases with respect to time; is going to have huge confidence intervals due to the exponential nature of it. It's just extremely sensitive to initial conditions, so small errors in data lead to large errors down the pipe.
3Blue1Brown has recently released some videos on the matter I find interesting, where he goes into a high level breakdown on some simulations he set up on the matter. Specifically, he attempts to show how variables such as adherence to social distancing and the time scales that this adherence takes place, the virulence of COVID-19, and the general dynamics of human travel impact a series of simulations that are run. As expected, the simulation based models share the same sensitivities to initial conditions (as well as revealing an immensely nonlinear and quite sensitive relationship between the simulation parameters and the results) as the analytical models and reveal large confidence intervals.
Just an immensely difficult phenomena to model accurately based on early data even with an extreme amount of simplifying assumptions.
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 9:16 am
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:16 pm to Ross
Quick update for those interested:
My radical prostatectomy is a go for 0630 tomorrow (Monday 4/6). Apparently they aren't worried about me catching the Big Corhuna, so I shouldn't be either (however they seem to be concerned about my wife, who may have to wait out in the car for the duration).
Here's hoping all goes well and I'll be back to annoy you with my pointless rambling takes for many more years...
My radical prostatectomy is a go for 0630 tomorrow (Monday 4/6). Apparently they aren't worried about me catching the Big Corhuna, so I shouldn't be either (however they seem to be concerned about my wife, who may have to wait out in the car for the duration).
Here's hoping all goes well and I'll be back to annoy you with my pointless rambling takes for many more years...
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:38 pm to FearlessFreep
Good luck FF. We’ll be think of you
Posted on 4/6/20 at 3:09 am to FearlessFreep
Good luck man. Be thinking of you and keep us updated
Posted on 4/6/20 at 1:13 pm to Aubie Spr96
Posted on 4/7/20 at 7:23 am to Aubie Spr96
thanks for all the well wishes - surgery went as expected, spent last night in a private room, and im now waiting for breakfast.
Still in some pain, although it feels less like pain from the incisions and more like muscular pain where they had to move things out of the way to get to the prostate.
And it sucks not being able to have visitors. Wife (no pics) left me right after pre-op yesterday, i wont see her again til Im discharged, and even then she’ll have to wait outside the main entrance.
Also found out i’ll be stuck using this damn urinary catheter for 10 days, not 7 :banghead”
Still in some pain, although it feels less like pain from the incisions and more like muscular pain where they had to move things out of the way to get to the prostate.
And it sucks not being able to have visitors. Wife (no pics) left me right after pre-op yesterday, i wont see her again til Im discharged, and even then she’ll have to wait outside the main entrance.
Also found out i’ll be stuck using this damn urinary catheter for 10 days, not 7 :banghead”
Posted on 4/7/20 at 8:12 am to FearlessFreep
Recovering alone has to stink. My mom had to do the same thing last week at MD Anderson. I hope your breakfast is at least decent and, you never know, the catheter, could come out earlier if you recover well.
Good Luck.
Good Luck.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 6:00 am to FearlessFreep
Good to hewar it went well. Hang in there.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 7:20 am to LanierSpots
Glad you are doing well, just look at the isolation as a good time to rest!
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