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re: What do you guys think about the "Jalen" packages?

Posted on 10/18/18 at 9:47 am to
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22377 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 9:47 am to
quote:

I'm just waiting for the play when Jalen throws a pass to Tua.


Please no.
Posted by FairhopeTider
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
20762 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:43 am to
quote:

If Tua is healthy then I don’t really expect the game to ever be close.


This. I don't see them being able to stay with us.

The only way they beat us is if they hog the ball and keep Tua off the field. Long drives that wear out our defense and culminate in points. They don't want to get into a track meet with us. If we can get up early and force Burrow to do more, then we'll be fine.

We've said it before though, LSU is the control in this experiment. We do seem to come out tight in Baton Rouge & LSU usually comes out pretty fired up. Tua's health is going to be key. If we go down there and roll like we have been so far this season, then start printing the shirts.
Posted by Commander Data
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Dec 2016
7289 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:45 am to
I would rather see a true WR on the field. I think it will be easily defended against when we go to La and against State and Auburn. Nothing wrong with letting the guys have fun though.
Posted by Fells
Member since Jul 2015
3917 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:50 am to
quote:

I think the opposite. Saban always plays the LSU very conservatively


I think that is just a meme with not a lot supporting it. Saban almost always has tricks and surprises in big games.
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21692 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:53 am to
quote:

I would rather see a true WR on the field


I agree. I don't think we need tricks. Our offense is talented across the board. I don't see Jalen being a better option at any position. Sure, we might trick the defense by running something weird, but what is going to be the result of the trick? A completed pass to Jalen? A pass BY Jalen? A run by Jalen? I like our WR's catching and running. I like Tua passing. And I like our RB's running.

As far as LSU, I hope Saban doesn't play them like he has in the past. I think he gives them too much credit sometimes and gets conservative to minimize mistakes and eek out a win. I don't think that's the best plan with this offense.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 11:03 am to
quote:

We've said it before though, LSU is the control in this experiment. We do seem to come out tight in Baton Rouge & LSU usually comes out pretty fired up. Tua's health is going to be key. If we go down there and roll like we have been so far this season, then start printing the shirts.



Yep, 100% agree. Especially the bold part.
Posted by JeffAtlanta
Atlanta GA
Member since Sep 2018
65 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 11:24 am to
quote:

don't want to ever again see Tua going downfield for a pass.

Agreed. Now that the Jalen packages are out of the bag, any competent defensive corridnator is going to tell his guys just to wallop Tua if he lines up as a non-QB whether he has the ball or not.
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26958 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 11:40 am to
quote:

CNS obviously sees value in the package.


Results of the 4 plays so far:

Hurts run for 5 yards.
Hurts run for 27 yards.
Hurts pass to Harris for 11 yards.
Tua pass to Hurts for 7 yards.

Avg. 12.5 yards per snap.

You don't see value in it?
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

Probably more time is spent practicing these packages then opposing defenses will spend preparing for them.


Not sure why you'd think this. These specialty packages are relatively straight forward and only minor wrinkles to existing packages


If Dana Holgerson installs his entire WVU offense in 3 days, a Saban run program can handle a small specialty package

quote:

opposing defenses will spend preparing for them.


It isn't just spending time in practice, it is asking the opposing coaches to develop and the players to remember and execute an entirely new set of assignments.


The wildcat wrecked the NFL in 2008 because it took defenses time to respond + players time to adjust to recognizing and understanding new assignments/responsibility



Posted by JeffAtlanta
Atlanta GA
Member since Sep 2018
65 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:08 pm to
You don't see value in it?

Not really - the offense was operating just fine (if not better) without it.

Although the plays have been positive yardage, the package seems to disrupt the rhythm of the offense. The drive you referenced stalled out immediately after all of the commotion and resulted in a FG.
This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 12:14 pm
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26958 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

As long as we don't waste too many plays doing it, then I don't care. They've mostly worked, but it's not like they've worked better than just running the offense.



If they can keep averaging 12.5 yards a snap, they can run it as much as they want.

As was mentioned in an article after the Arkansas game, our OL commented about the confusion among their players, yelling, "Jalen! Jalen!" "Double Pass!". Anything that generates confusion on defense is worth something.

The two plays vs. Missouri were completely different form the two vs. Arkansas. If we run two Saturday, I imagine they will be completely different from the first four.
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26958 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

he drive you referenced stalled out and resulted in a FG.




Look again. The drive against Arkansas produced a touchdown. And it's ludicrous to suggest that an 11 yard gain on first down, followed by a 7 yard gain on first down caused a drive to stall. 2nd and 3 is exactly the kind of result you want on 1st down. Maybe it was the play called on 2nd and 3.

Bottom line...the only thing you have to base your opinion on is, well, just your opinion. Stats don't lie.
This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 12:27 pm
Posted by JeffAtlanta
Atlanta GA
Member since Sep 2018
65 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Stats don't lie.

Stats “lie” all the time - there are myriad books written on the subject.

“Stats” are meaningless without context and a sophisticated enough understanding to perform proper analysis.

There is an adage in the data science world - “anyone who is competent enough to interpret data is competent enough to mislead with it”

For example, according to the stats Jalen has a higher completion percentage than Tua this year - does anyone think that Jalen is a more accurate passer than Tua?
This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 12:49 pm
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

the package seems to disrupt the rhythm of the offense


I'd argue it disrupts the defense even more for the rest of the game, not just one drive
Posted by The White Lobster
Member since Jul 2009
16764 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:48 pm to
Stats don’t lie. People manipulate numbers to substantiate lies

An answer to your edit: no, and I don’t think completion percentage is how you determine who is a more accurate passer
This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 12:50 pm
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26958 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

Stats don't lie.

Stats “lie” all the time - there are myriad books written on the subject.

“Stats” are meaningless without context and a sophisticated enough understanding to perform proper analysis.

There is an adage in the data science world - “anyone who is competent enough to interpret data is competent enough to mislead with it”

For example, according to the stats Jalen has a higher completion percentage than Tua this year - does anyone think that Jalen is a more accurate passer than Tua?


Yada, yada, yada.

Bottom line...there's nothing to support your opinion on this topic other than a tingling feeling running up your leg, because it sure isn't supported by a rational analysis of the results.

Nothing. Zero. Zilch.
This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 1:24 pm
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21692 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 2:09 pm to
quote:

Results of the 4 plays so far:

Hurts run for 5 yards.
Hurts run for 27 yards.
Hurts pass to Harris for 11 yards.
Tua pass to Hurts for 7 yards.

Avg. 12.5 yards per snap.


Eh. Have you seen our regular offensive stats?

Tua - 14.31 yards per passing ATTEMPT
Tua - 20.0 yards per completion
Tua - 4.7 yards per carry (with sacks included)
The first 3 RB's off the bench are averaging a combined 5.99 yards per carry.

So, let's not just assume if we'd run the normal offense that we wouldn't have picked up just as many yards. Or more, since if Tua had completed two normal passes, the stats tell us he would have gotten 40 yards out of it.

See how fun stats are?
Posted by Shaft Williams
Central City, LA
Member since Jul 2010
9424 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 3:47 pm to
LSU will win the time of possession battle. But, with our offense that may not be an indicator of anything significant.
Posted by LittleJerrySeinfield
350,000 Post Karma
Member since Aug 2013
7684 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

What do you guys think about Jalen's package



Dude, the Aggy board is that way ----------------->

Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26958 posts
Posted on 10/18/18 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

Results of the 4 plays so far:

Hurts run for 5 yards.
Hurts run for 27 yards.
Hurts pass to Harris for 11 yards.
Tua pass to Hurts for 7 yards.

Avg. 12.5 yards per snap.


Eh. Have you seen our regular offensive stats?

Tua - 14.31 yards per passing ATTEMPT
Tua - 20.0 yards per completion
Tua - 4.7 yards per carry (with sacks included)
The first 3 RB's off the bench are averaging a combined 5.99 yards per carry.

So, let's not just assume if we'd run the normal offense that we wouldn't have picked up just as many yards. Or more, since if Tua had completed two normal passes, the stats tell us he would have gotten 40 yards out of it.

See how fun stats are?


"If" he would have completed. "If" is a really big word.

No "ifs"...reality: the other 46 snaps that Tua took vs. Missouri, other than the "Jalen package"...completions, incompletions, handoffs, and sacks...we averaged 7.9 yards per SNAP.

Against Arkansas, we averaged 11.26 yards per SNAP, other than the Jalen package, with Tua.

Yeah, stats can be really fun when you just cherry pick the good plays and ignore the ones that have gotten bad results.

I would assume that you're astute enough to know that's not the point. The point is that some posters look at the packages as if they are a bad idea, when clearly they aren't. They have by any measure been successful. And the notion that they caused the offense to bog down is, well, just stupid.

This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 4:16 pm
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