re: Tide Hoops | Please Anchor

True! He has to utilize his midrange game when they are in and don't over penetrate.

Since December 21st we are 2-4 and have lost those 4 games by a combined 13 points (1, 6, 4, 2).

Over that period of time our 3 main guards (JD, JQ, Shack) are 25/102 from 3PT (24.5%). Those 3 also have our 3 worst Offensive Box Plus/Minus, 3 worst defensive box plus minus, 3 worst overall box plus minus, 3 worst offensive ratings, and 3 worst true shooting percentages.

Box Plus Minus
> vs Davidson (lost by 1) : Shack/JD/JQ --- (-1.8)
> @ Missouri (lost by 6) : Shack/JD/JQ --- (+2.1)
> vs Auburn (lost by 4) : Shack/JD/JQ --- (-6.6)
> @ Miss St (lost by 2) : Shack/JD/JQ --- (-10.4)

Conclusions are pretty simple
1. We can't win with our 3 guards playing like this. Against anybody competent. If they continue to play this poorly, we will struggle to win any conference games.

2. Even with them playing this poorly (and nobody else playing much better than average), we have been in position to win all 4 games we've lost over the last month in the last minute of the game. If they even play average basketball as a group we are probably sitting at 14-3 (4-1) right now.


So - it really comes down to if you think Shack/JQ/JD can/will play better basketball than they have the last month or not. If they do, we have a chance to win some games and get right again. If they don't, the season is going to continue to go down in agonizing flames.

I think Shack will start shooting better. He's still going to be an atrocious defender who can't finish at the rim, but he will be fine from outside. Too much of a consistent history of decent shooting on high volume to think he could randomly turn into a pumpkin from outside for an entire season.

JQ I don't know what to think. Too much of a mixed bag in all respects to have any idea of what he actually is. He could be the shite player he was at Villanova, early last year, and so far this year, or he could be the All-SEC type guy he was the second half of last year. Who knows. That may have just been a hot streak, but hot streaks don't typically last for two months.

JD I have zero expectations for. He's an A+ athlete but he can't play halfcourt basketball with such a terrible shot and poor ball security. And because our defense is fricking putrid his open court opportunities are limited. He's pretty useless as a player on a terrible defensive team like this one.

It's not surprising that Miles is in 2 of our 3 best lineups but is 8th on the team in minutes. I honestly don't understand what is going on between him and the staff, because it seems like he's held to a higher standard than anyone else on the roster. Everyone else, even the freshmen, is given a long (often too long) leash, but Miles gets a quick hook any time he makes a stupid mistake.

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Shack/JQ/JD can/will play better basketball

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It's the hair.

All three need a 'do change to right this ship.

Woof…not pretty at all. I think I’m done with the “this is a must-win game” now after this past weekend, but I do think we need to go AT LEAST 2-1 the next 3 games to salvage any remote expectations of success this season. The next 6 SEC games after that are brutal and the Baylor game in between is going to be a really tough one to win as well. Thankfully we have 3 winnable games after that before a dog fight in Baton Rouge to end the season. With how things have gone, I think just finishing with a winning record in SEC play should be the goal.

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I still can't figure out Holt's actual role in all of this.

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Probably in the transfer portal with Tchikou come season's end

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Oats has to do a better job of piecing these lineups together. Our roster construction once Burnett went down became very ugly and there are a whole bunch of combinations that you just can't play in SEC games, and we seem to play them way too frequently. I know foul trouble messes that stuff up, but Miles should be getting 25-30 minutes a night. Not 15.

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Agree with all of that. Miles needs to get starters minutes even if it's in the 6th man role.

And obviously hindsight is 20/20, but we probably shouldn't have re-recruited Shack out of the portal and instead went after another big, rangy guard like Burnett. Those are the kind of guys you need if you're going to play strictly man to man and switch on everything.

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(Quinerly/Davison/Shackelford/Ellis/Gurley)?

- 44th out of 45 in the SEC in Defensive Efficiency
- 37th out of 45 in the SEC in Offensive Efficiency
- 41st out of 45 in the SEC in Net Efficiency

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Quinerly/Shackelford/Davison/Miles/Gurley (57 possessions used)
- 1st out of 45 in the SEC in Offensive Efficiency
- 35th out of 45 in the SEC in Defensive Efficiency
- 3rd out of 45 in the SEC in Overall Efficiency

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It's crazy how you can swap out one player and get such a difference. I don't know what to do with them anymore. Like you said, shooting better will solve a lot of issues.

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Most of those guys play the 5 almost exclusively. Defense only guards and wings are pretty rare

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That's true. I guess it is pretty rare for that guy to be a guard. I was thinking of some of the 6'6"-6'8" forwards that we've seen as defensive stoppers and rebounders and done very well and helped their teams. Kind of a Rodman type player.