re: Tide Hoops | 31-6 (16-2)

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Offensive Turnover Rate Through 12/31 : 22.1% (#330) (13 games)

Since 1/1 : 14.5% (#25) (11 games)

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Locks
Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Volunteers

Should be in

Auburn Tigers
After a 16-3 start to the season, Auburn has now lost four of its past five. Alabama comes to town Saturday for what might be termed a no-risk contest for the Tigers. A win would headline the profile for Bruce Pearl's team, naturally, but a competitive loss will do zero damage to a projected No. 8 seed. After the Crimson Tide have come and gone, Auburn will host Missouri and Ole Miss on either side of a road game at Vanderbilt. Holding serve at home against Mizzou and taking care of business against the Commodores and Rebels will hold a fair measure of significance for this team's seed. Note that Auburn's being whistled for fouls at a high rate: SEC opponents are averaging 24 free throws per outing.


Missouri Tigers
Missouri appears to be heading toward a spot in the vicinity of the No. 9 line, a trajectory boosted by wins over Iowa State, Illinois and Kentucky by an average of nearly 18 points. Then again, the Tigers also have lost to Kansas, Alabama and Texas A&M by an average margin of 22 points. Dennis Gates and his 18-6 team have seen their share of lopsided results. One possible explanation for such extremes could be Missouri's exceptional ability to stay away from turnovers on offense while forcing them on D. When this doesn't happen, however, SEC opponents outscore the Tigers by a wide margin on each effective (turnover-less) possession.


Arkansas Razorbacks
Powered by a 47-point second half in which they shot 18-of-25 from the field, the Razorbacks won 88-73 at Kentucky. On the evening as a whole Arkansas, held Oscar Tshiebwe to just seven points and seven rebounds. A 15-point victory at Rupp Arena will give a significant boost to metrics that were already quite good for a projected No. 9 seed. Why Eric Musselman feels compelled to have his team get off to a slow start in SEC play every season is anyone's guess. But then every February, the Hogs catch fire and start their rampage. Circle your calendar for the back-to-back road games Arkansas is going to play at Alabama and at Tennessee later this month. (updated Feb. 7)

Work to do

Kentucky Wildcats
John Calipari's team entered its home game against Arkansas being shown as earning one of the last four byes in the projected field. Given that already precarious position, the 15-point loss to the Razorbacks introduces still another measure of peril into this profile. Yes, it was a Quadrant 1 defeat and, thus, could have been worse, but in a way, that's the point. Those losses are becoming more numerous for a UK team that is 1-7 in Quadrant 1 contests. The one win, of course, was earned at Tennessee, and that is one outstanding entry to have on your profile. However, the Wildcats are in no position to coast on those 40 minutes alone. Away games await against Georgia and Mississippi State.


Florida Gators
The roster of teams that have run into a buzz saw called Alabama and lost by double digits includes Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky, among others. Florida has been added to that list after a 28-point drubbing in Tuscaloosa. In theory the schedule now becomes a bit friendlier for the Gators, though it bears mention that the next opponent, Vanderbilt, just beat Tennessee. Todd Golden's team is customarily placed just outside the field in current projections, and securing wins at home against the Commodores and Ole Miss will be critical to say the least. Then UF will visit Arkansas. (updated Feb. 8)


Texas A&M Aggies
If the committee is true to its word and really does ignore conference records, it's missing some impressive figures from Texas A&M. The Aggies are now 9-2 in the SEC, with the losses coming at Kentucky and at Arkansas. Nevertheless, the knock on this profile is an 8-5 nonconference record against a schedule where the strongest opponent was Boise State. The good news for Buzz Williams is the upcoming schedule affords this team home games against Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama, not to mention road tests at Missouri and Mississippi State. Texas A&M still has plenty of runway to play its way into the field. The first order of business will be securing a win at LSU.


Mississippi State Bulldogs
With Alabama doing to the SEC what Gonzaga used to do to the WCC annually, Mississippi State might want to rethink this whole tournament profile thing. Perhaps the most impressive statement to be made on the Bulldogs' behalf is that they played the Crimson Tide twice and lost by a combined total of just 14 points. Better still, MSU can add to its body of work in the next two games, at Arkansas and at home against Kentucky. For a team like Mississippi State that appears to be on the most remote fringes of the bubble, those are the games that can do you some good. (updated Feb. 8)

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Pringle really impressed me tonight. I knew he was athletic but HOT DAMN is he ATHLETIC.

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Jimmy Dykes

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