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re: Stat Model - #1 Bama vs #3 OSU (Title) (7 PM CST) (Jan 11)
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:52 am to FairhopeTider
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:52 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
Really hope that Ohio State drained too much from the emotional well in that Clemson game
I agree, and this should be a legitimate intangible factor.
It was clear that Ohio State had revenge in mind and spent a lot of time preparing for Clemson.
It was also a very physical ball game.
At the end of the day none of this may matter, but historically it's really hard to duplicate these performances back-to-back.
I'm really hoping that the 2018-19 CFP is an analogue here - Clemson smashed Notre Dame in the semifinals that year and cruised into the championship game rested and prepared.
0
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:57 am to SummerOfGeorge
Also, rerunning without Clemson, once again almost no change.
Margin is roughly the same as Vegas, little higher scoring.
Margin is roughly the same as Vegas, little higher scoring.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 9:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
Good video on how Day basically attacked Clemson's poor safety play all day. ND did not have the personnel to do it.
Top Billin OSU vs Clemson breakdown
Top Billin OSU vs Clemson breakdown
Posted on 1/4/21 at 9:32 am to Che Boludo
I ran the link this morning and I must admit, I liked this score!!
BAMA 47
Suckeyes 24
BAMA 47
Suckeyes 24
Posted on 1/4/21 at 9:38 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Clemson's poor safety play
quote:
PFF - Defensive Pass Coverage Stats (CB, S, LB) - QB Rating Against
Posted on 12/17/20 by SummerOfGeorge
SAFETY (Min 150 coverage snaps, 10 targets)
BEST
1. Joe Foucha (Arkansas) (73.3)
2. Jordyn Peters (Auburn) (73.8)
3. Smoke Monday (Auburn) (80.6)
4. Demani Richardson (Texas A&M) (82.1)
5. Jalen Catalon (Arkansas) (83.8)
6. Leon O'Neal Jr (Texas A&M) (86.3)
7. Daniel Wright (Alabama) (92.1)
8. Jamien Sherwood (Auburn) (93.1)
9. Jalen Hordan (Ole Miss) (93.2)
10. Jordan Battle (Alabama) (98.6)
Posted on 1/4/21 at 10:20 am to paperwasp
Yeah I knew Battle had come along, nice to see Wright moving up as well. Wonder if he will not play as much due to sermon.
Not sure we have a choice though, since we will need his coverage skills with OSU mostly going 3 wide.
Not sure we have a choice though, since we will need his coverage skills with OSU mostly going 3 wide.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 10:43 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
nice to see Wright moving up as well. Wonder if he will not play as much due to sermon.
Not sure we have a choice though, since we will need his coverage skills with OSU mostly going 3 wide.
Are we sure Wright still has the job? Hellams got the start against Notre Dame. I know there was talk of Wright being hurt but I haven't seen anything definitive on that.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 10:46 am to Crimson77
quote:
Are we sure Wright still has the job? Hellams got the start against Notre Dame. I know there was talk of Wright being hurt but I haven't seen anything definitive on that.
I didn't see anything on it - I was assuming it was because Notre Dame ran 12 formations the enter game and Hellams is the bigger, thumper safety they thought they needed in that situation.
I saw Wright playing late when Notre Dame started going into the 11 formations with 3 WRs.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 11:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MODEL PREDICTION (CORRECTED)
ALABAMA - 45
OHIO STATE - 38
Alabama Total Yards (YPP): 485 yds (7.22 YPP on 68 plays)
Alabama Pass Yards (YPA): 339 yds (9.98 YPA on 34 plays)
Alabama Rush Yards (YPA): 146 yds (4.30 YPA on 34 plays)
Ohio State Total Yards (YPP): 480 yds (6.67 YPP on 72 plays)
Ohio State Pass Yards (YPA): 271 yds (9.35 YPA on 29 plays)
Ohio State Rush Yards (YPA): 209 yds (4.86 YPA on 43 plays)
That's more like it.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 12:03 pm to UltimaParadox
That was a good video, not sure why you’re getting downvoted for it. Strange. Does make me feel a tiny bit better that it looked like Clemson’s safeties were just lost on a lot of those big plays. Gotta hope our guys can do better
Posted on 1/4/21 at 1:12 pm to BTide
Posted on 1/4/21 at 2:50 pm to BTide
quote:
That was a good video, not sure why you’re getting downvoted for it. Strange. Does make me feel a tiny bit better that it looked like Clemson’s safeties were just lost on a lot of those big plays. Gotta hope our guys can do better
Maybe my reputation of being a debbie downer is at play here..
And it is probably justified as I fret sometimes over the small match ups.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 3:57 pm to UltimaParadox
Biggest concern for me is being moved around on DL vs their run game. They annihilated Clemson who is not a bunch of slouches up front. And we’ve been hit or miss stopping the run vs decent teams this year. Stopped NDs rush pretty good but then again so did Clemson. Our front is gonna have to bring it. If we can slow their run down I like our chances of getting stops
Posted on 1/4/21 at 4:01 pm to Kcstills17
My biggest concern is their run game, agree. If they are chunking us in the run game we are not going to be in a very good spot to defend the pass, and their WRs are really damn good.
The big boys up front are going to have to play their best game of the season in terms of creating a wall, and we're gonna need to be creative in when we bring people from 18 yards deep on run blitzes.
The big boys up front are going to have to play their best game of the season in terms of creating a wall, and we're gonna need to be creative in when we bring people from 18 yards deep on run blitzes.
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 1/4/21 at 4:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'm very concerned about this game. I predict a high scoring game. Justin Fields is the best QB we've faced since Deshaun Watson. I do like our LBers in pass coverage against their TEs and our secondary against their WRs. I predict we win but by no more than 3-7 points.
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 1/4/21 at 4:40 pm to Shaft Williams
quote:
I predict we win but by no more than 3-7 points.
Well it is the national championship game. The other team is usually pretty good, and this one certainly is.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 5:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If #58 really wants to make so big money then he will need to come up huge vs OSU.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 5:48 pm to Shaft Williams
quote:
Justin Fields is the best QB we've faced since Deshaun Watson.
In a title game or best overall? TL, Murray, and Burrow...
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 1/4/21 at 7:33 pm to Gustave
Title game. Fields has outplayed Trevor Lawrence two seasons in a row head to head. And, I do think Fields is better now than Murray was at this time.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
One thing I don't think your model algorithms use is the fact that tOSU had that Clemson score posted from last year in their weight room all year. Further, there was the comments spewed by Dabo about Ohio State's 6 games that didn't help.
Now, you say you took out the Clemson game and the numbers are similar, but now I'm talking about a bit of emotional letdown.
Similar to our 09 Florida game and the focus and effort there is similar in many aspects to what we just saw New Year's night.
Yes, we did beat UTx , but that was nearly a month later. I honestly think had we played Texas just a week after Florida, the outcome may not have been as favorable to Bama.
Now, you say you took out the Clemson game and the numbers are similar, but now I'm talking about a bit of emotional letdown.
Similar to our 09 Florida game and the focus and effort there is similar in many aspects to what we just saw New Year's night.
Yes, we did beat UTx , but that was nearly a month later. I honestly think had we played Texas just a week after Florida, the outcome may not have been as favorable to Bama.
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 9:00 pm
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