Favorite team:Alabama 
Location:North Carolina
Biography:
Interests:
Occupation:
Number of Posts:52619
Registered on:11/21/2008
Online Status:
 Online

Recent Posts

Message

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/14/26 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

cgrand


I will say if you draw a venn diagram of space X and BTC holders they would almost completely overlap

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/14/26 at 11:49 am to
quote:

I'll go ahead and invest with the world's greatest business man ever


Point made, also exemplifies why you generally never short

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/13/26 at 9:17 pm to
Space X IPO is another extreme example of how a narrative drives investment and not the business.

Any reasonable person says at current IPO prices that basically all upside is priced in, but generally people don't care about the valuations at all.

Everyone is betting on short term narratives to continue. Retail sentiment drives the market and traders are willing to gamble all the way through.

This is definitely a company you pay attention to because if the narrative around it ever changes it will drop hard. Otherwise there is money to be made riding the momentum.

But I wouldn't confuse the current stock success with business success. They are not even related at this point
quote:

Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMICs): The company has expanded its IP into chip-level design, developing MMIC chips aimed at scaling mass-market telecommunications and cellular hardware


Everyone is selling MMIC today. Qorvo dominates this market for military applications. But they aren't the only player as I started above. MMIC is the standard, especially as AESA based radars are the frontier for new development. Skyworks etc are more for the 5g development.

Amplitech is primarily limited to extreme environments like satellite, which provides them some moat because it is expensive to get through mil standard testing for space.

That being said it limits their market because space usage is small potatoes to ground based RF solutions.

I'm just cautioning your thesis based on some addressable market that is already saturated. They aren't selling some breakthrough technology. I'm guessing their name is surfacing due to space X. But I don't see them encroaching on the dominant players in the business for standard solutions.

re: SPCX options trading

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/13/26 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

My son was under an NDA but he catered the SpaceX IPO party, yesterday. Let me know, today.


Did Elon leave a tip
quote:

Their key invention is a Low Noise Amplifier (LNA)


What? LNAs have been around for decades and commonly found all over the RF space.

Skyworks, broadcom, and Qualcomm all make their own and integrate directly.

Qorvo is a dominant player in the military, with more specialized solutions. NXP, infineon, and analog devices are also huge in this space.

Amplitech is very niche, and not really someone who competes with the larger players.

It's a crowded play

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/12/26 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

our inside projections have it reaching 53k-88k


Lol
Sadly I would probably trust China propaganda over open AI propaganda. But it's close, they both can't be trusted.

Anyone who thinks these massive data centers are not driving up residential prices is naive.
BTC been around 20 years now, it's basically boomer gambling
quote:

Nearly 16% of Gen Z hold multiple jobs—five times the rate of Baby Boomers.


quote:

The 17 to 25-year-old demographic is the fastest-growing age group on gig-work apps.


Low job prospects, and many men didn't bother with any education past high school. Their job prospects are dim
People on the board seem to get mighty offended by the term boomers

re: Space X IPO question

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/9/26 at 7:18 pm to
The massive overvaluation of Space X is probably causing a lot of concern in the market.

As all these AI companies open up their books to cash out for IPO, it shows revenues are small compared to spending. They are trying to pivot to making money.

re: Happy Pride Month!

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/7/26 at 5:39 pm to
quote:

It's 30 straight days of in your face degeneracy... but we're obsessed for noticing and commenting?


Do you guys seek out gay material? I know it's June and all, but I don't see anything in my day to day.
Just six more months and we will ask be unemployed from the advancements of the all knowing AI overlords

re: Happy Pride Month!

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/7/26 at 4:55 pm to
I'm starting to wonder about the politards, they are obsessed with pride month
quote:

Despite securing a legal victory in the United States, Heart is pursued by authorities in Finland for separate, severe allegations. In December 2024, Interpol issued a Red Notice seeking his arrest for alleged gross tax evasion and the physical assault of a minor. In connection with the tax evasion investigation, Finnish police previously seized approximately $2.6 million worth of luxury watches belonging to Heart. He remains on the European Union's Most Wanted list as his exact whereabouts are publicly unknown. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]


Wonder what he is doing with everyone's money...
quote:

Upper 40's


quote:

no wife/kids


Even with wife and kids you are nearing retirement age and should be getting closer to self insured. With what you have saved in retirement.

Without any dependents I would not be carrying any life insurance
quote:

I’m guessing the nasdaq doesn’t have such requirements? Wondering if QQQ is going to take a beating with some really overpriced IPOs coming in.


NASDAQ changed the rules to bring in space X.

quote:

To win the largest initial public offering (IPO) in market history, the Nasdaq adjusted its index-inclusion rules, effective May 1, 2026. The exchange scrapped historical waiting periods, paving the way for massive, high-profile companies like SpaceX to be added to the benchmark Nasdaq-100 just 15 days after going public


QQQ holders going to be exit liquidity for insiders

quote:

But SpaceX also looks to be the biggest trap ever set for retail investors. The historical and structural deficiencies of the SpaceX IPO will result in the greatest fleecing of retail investors we've ever witnessed.


quote:

According to the SpaceX prospectus that was made public on May 20, the company behind reusable rockets, satellite-based broadband service Starlink, xAI, and social media platform X generated $18.67 billion in sales last year. If SpaceX prices at a $1.8 trillion valuation, it'll be trading at a P/S ratio of 96!

History tells us that no public company at the forefront of a game-changing technology has ever been able to sustain a P/S ratio above 30 over the long run. A P/S ratio of nearly 100 is a glaring red flag that screams, "bubble!"



quote:

Notably, Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) amended several of its long-standing rules to expedite SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. The "Fast Entry" rule change, which took effect on May 1, shortened the waiting period for Nasdaq-100 inclusion from around three months to just 15 trading days (i.e., July 7, based on SpaceX's expected June 12 debut) for megacap IPOs that would be among the 40 largest nonfinancial companies. Minimum float requirements were also eliminated.

But this wasn't the only change made. SpaceX can enter the Russell U.S. Equity Indexes and FTSE Global Equity Index Series after just five trading sessions.




motley fool
quote:

SpaceX has requested unusually swift entry into several leading stock market indexes as a condition of its historic stock market debut. But the S&P 500 stock market index representing many of the largest profitable US companies has surprised market analysts by refusing to bend the rules for Elon Musk’s AI company.


quote:

But in its final decision, the S&P Dow Jones Indices stated that “no changes will be made to the eligibility criteria including financial viability screens, seasoning period, or minimum IWF.” Even after the standard yearlong wait, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may struggle to deliver the consistent profitability necessary to qualify for the S&P 500.


quote:

The denial of accelerated S&P 500 entry for SpaceX comes just days after Morningstar analysts described SpaceX as having been “significantly overvalued” in the lead-up to its IPO. The investment research firm valued SpaceX at $780 billion—less than half of SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion IPO goal—primarily based on the strengths of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite service and rocket launch business.


Finally common sense... It's not a lot to ask to be profitable for four straight quarters before being added.

Ars tech source