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re: Stat Model - #1 Bama vs #3 OSU (Title) (7 PM CST) (Jan 11)
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MODEL PREDICTION
ALABAMA - 41
OHIO STATE - 38
Well suck me sideways.
1
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:49 pm to TideSaint
When you only have 7 games of data and 1 of them is you basically doubling or tripling a teams average numbers (Clemson), you are going to have some scary good figures.
So, I'd guess that the range out outcomes on this one is a little wider than most.
Clemson was giving up like 3.0 YPA rushing - they gave up 5.8 to OSU.
Clemson was giving up 6.9 YPA passing - they gave up 8.3 to OSU.
I haven't done it, but I'm guessing if you remove the Clemson game and just use their regular season + B1G Title Game the score would be something like 42-28 or something like that.
Not that you should do that, but it just shows how much 1 game moved the needle. If they play like that, they're gonna be tough to beat. If they play like the other 7 games, I feel pretty good. If they play somewhere in between, I feel pretty good.
So, I'd guess that the range out outcomes on this one is a little wider than most.
Clemson was giving up like 3.0 YPA rushing - they gave up 5.8 to OSU.
Clemson was giving up 6.9 YPA passing - they gave up 8.3 to OSU.
I haven't done it, but I'm guessing if you remove the Clemson game and just use their regular season + B1G Title Game the score would be something like 42-28 or something like that.
Not that you should do that, but it just shows how much 1 game moved the needle. If they play like that, they're gonna be tough to beat. If they play like the other 7 games, I feel pretty good. If they play somewhere in between, I feel pretty good.
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 11:51 pm
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama Total Yards (YPP): 441 yds (6.48 YPP on 68 plays)
Alabama Pass Yards (YPA): 300 yds (8.57 YPA on 35 plays)
Alabama Rush Yards (YPA): 141 yds (4.27 YPA on 33 plays)
I'd be extremely disappointed if we only gained 441 yards on their defense.
quote:
Ohio State Total Yards (YPP): 471 yds (6.53 YPP on 72 plays)
Ohio State Pass Yards (YPA): 262 yds (8.73 YPA on 30 plays)
Ohio State Rush Yards (YPA): 208 yds (4.96 YPA on 42 plays)
I like to think our offense would make it impossible for them to run 42 times. Score early, score often and get off the field on 3rd down.
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 11:52 pm
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:56 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MODEL PREDICTION
ALABAMA - 41
OHIO STATE - 38
I can definitely see this. Like I said, this appears to be a really even matchup. We’ll need to put on our big boy pants and have the bourbon ready for this one.
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:56 pm to TideSaint
Honestly, I think the B1G skews the hell out of these numbers.
They basically played nobody in conference, but this doesn't know how to take that into account, and then their one big game they massacred a team with great stats by way more than their averages.
The fact that with all that we STILL have a winning margin......feel pretty good.
My general feeling is Ohio State has to bring their Clemson performance. If they do, it's a toss up, maybe even advantage them.
If Ohio State brings any other version of themselves from 2019, we're gonna win the ballgame.
We've basically brought the same consistent performance every game for the last 2 months, so I think it's pretty clear what we'll put on the field.
We know from past history with them that discounting a recent high water mark performance is not a good idea, though, so I'm working under the assumption we get their Clemson game.
They basically played nobody in conference, but this doesn't know how to take that into account, and then their one big game they massacred a team with great stats by way more than their averages.
The fact that with all that we STILL have a winning margin......feel pretty good.
My general feeling is Ohio State has to bring their Clemson performance. If they do, it's a toss up, maybe even advantage them.
If Ohio State brings any other version of themselves from 2019, we're gonna win the ballgame.
We've basically brought the same consistent performance every game for the last 2 months, so I think it's pretty clear what we'll put on the field.
We know from past history with them that discounting a recent high water mark performance is not a good idea, though, so I'm working under the assumption we get their Clemson game.
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 12:01 am
Posted on 1/4/21 at 12:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
I think the keys to victory are rather simple, as I told you the other night.
Isolate Surtain on Olave. He's really their only receiving option downfield.
Focus coverage inside on their TEs. They feasted on Clemson.
Maintain gap integrity to stop the run. This may finally be the game for DJ Dale to shine.
Don't let Fields scramble. If that means rushing 3 and dropping 8, so be it. Put the athletic young bucks in and let them pin their ears back.
On offense, don't get cute. Let Mac do what he does best. Najee can gash them. Don't turn the ball over.
Isolate Surtain on Olave. He's really their only receiving option downfield.
Focus coverage inside on their TEs. They feasted on Clemson.
Maintain gap integrity to stop the run. This may finally be the game for DJ Dale to shine.
Don't let Fields scramble. If that means rushing 3 and dropping 8, so be it. Put the athletic young bucks in and let them pin their ears back.
On offense, don't get cute. Let Mac do what he does best. Najee can gash them. Don't turn the ball over.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 12:59 am to TideSaint
quote:
Maintain gap integrity to stop the run
Sermon worries me. That guy has been on a mission in the last few games and runs with a purpose.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 1:06 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
Sermon worries me. That guy has been on a mission in the last few games and runs with a purpose.
He's a beast.
We need to play good assignment football to keep him in check.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 1:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
Can we run one without Clemson?
I don't doubt that was a legit win, but it certainly feels more outlier ish
I don't doubt that was a legit win, but it certainly feels more outlier ish
Posted on 1/4/21 at 7:28 am to UhOhOreo
tackling will be huge in this game. if we tackle good then i believe we win. if we have a bunch of missed tackles, especially on sermon and fields, it will be a long night.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:04 am to crimsontater
In the end this game will be won buy our staff. We have the better team across the board. This will come down to:
1-our staff calling the right plays on both sides of the ball
2-putting the players in the best position to win
3-making the right adjustments
4-having the players focused
If those things happen by our coaches we will win the game.
If we put up points it will force them to pass the ball and Fields in 2 games against ranked teams in the B1G struggled against teams who had solid DBs throwing 5 picks in those 2 games. If they get ahead early it will become a problem because they will start pounding the ball and try to slow the game down like ND. We have to force them to keep up.
Again CU was very over rated this year and was given the benefit of the doubt like UA last year. We all knew our offense was winning games and that the defense was not very good. CU's defense the other night finally got exposed like ours did against LSU last year and we saw no matter what the offense could do it was not enough to carry the team. This year our D is better and the real matchup in the game is going to be Smith vs Wade.
1-our staff calling the right plays on both sides of the ball
2-putting the players in the best position to win
3-making the right adjustments
4-having the players focused
If those things happen by our coaches we will win the game.
If we put up points it will force them to pass the ball and Fields in 2 games against ranked teams in the B1G struggled against teams who had solid DBs throwing 5 picks in those 2 games. If they get ahead early it will become a problem because they will start pounding the ball and try to slow the game down like ND. We have to force them to keep up.
Again CU was very over rated this year and was given the benefit of the doubt like UA last year. We all knew our offense was winning games and that the defense was not very good. CU's defense the other night finally got exposed like ours did against LSU last year and we saw no matter what the offense could do it was not enough to carry the team. This year our D is better and the real matchup in the game is going to be Smith vs Wade.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
Justin Fields play outside of the NW game seems to be pretty consistent...
He does not rush as much as I thought he did, and did not seem that explosive in the Clemson game. Obviously though he suffered the injury early and that is what I saw.
He does not rush as much as I thought he did, and did not seem that explosive in the Clemson game. Obviously though he suffered the injury early and that is what I saw.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:29 am to SummerOfGeorge
Suggestion: Put OSU's 5 reg season game stats in twice to simulate that they played 10 games.
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 8:31 am
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:30 am to UltimaParadox
Against IU he tried to force throws and threw 3 pics in the game. IU outscored them in the 2nd half 28-14 and 7 of those points for OSU came from a pick 6. In the 2nd half IU started bringing a lot of pressure and Fields had to scramble, throwing incomplete passes, and getting sacked.
Jones stays composed for the most part even in when forced out of the pocket. Fields does not and once he scrambles seems prone to mistakes.
Jones stays composed for the most part even in when forced out of the pocket. Fields does not and once he scrambles seems prone to mistakes.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:30 am to SummerOfGeorge
Optimistic that we will be able to get to Fields. Despite being a good runner, he has been sacked 20 times in 7 games. Our pass rush has seriously turned it on lately and i'd be shocked if Fields will be running at full speed Monday
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:33 am to TidalSurge1
quote:
Suggestion: Put OSU's 5 reg season game stats in twice to simulate that they played 10 games.
Won't change anything - math basically stays the same
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:33 am to SummerOfGeorge
FYI - ran it without Clemson included..........almost no change. Score drops from 41-38 to 41-37. Our YPP actually drops by .05 from 6.48 to 6.43. Their YPP drops from 6.53 to 6.35.
They basically hit their % of opponent averages against Clemson the same they hit them against the rest of their schedule, and their defense was similar as well (I mean, they did give up 400 yards passing).
Might just be a really, really good football team
They basically hit their % of opponent averages against Clemson the same they hit them against the rest of their schedule, and their defense was similar as well (I mean, they did give up 400 yards passing).
Might just be a really, really good football team
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 8:36 am
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:39 am to SummerOfGeorge
Alright - I gotta apologize - I had some user errors. It was late at night .
Update coming that will make you feel better with correct formulas.
MODEL UPDATED ON PAGE 1
. Update coming that will make you feel better with correct formulas.
MODEL UPDATED ON PAGE 1
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 8:44 am
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:50 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I gotta apologize
Thanks. It was going to be hard to take the rest of your posts seriously.
Posted on 1/4/21 at 8:52 am to UASports23
quote:
It was going to be hard to take the rest of your posts seriously.
You should require more of your heroes sport
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