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re: Stat Model - #1 Bama vs #3 OSU (Title) (7 PM CST) (Jan 11)
Posted on 1/4/21 at 10:13 pm to East Coast Band
Posted on 1/4/21 at 10:13 pm to East Coast Band
Can someone share what HuskeyPup on BOL said about the game? it's a thread with his thoughts on the game.
1
Posted on 1/5/21 at 11:10 am to SummerOfGeorge
@ SOG Thanks a ton for doing all of the models.
This post was edited on 1/5/21 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 1/5/21 at 1:58 pm to TidalSurge1
No problem man, appreciate it - glad people enjoy them.
Posted on 1/5/21 at 2:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 1/5/21 at 2:03 pm to CrimsonBoz
Thanks Boz
Posted on 1/5/21 at 2:13 pm to Panthers4life
quote:
Can someone share what HuskeyPup on BOL said about the game? it's a thread with his thoughts on the game.
quote:
Championship Game Thoughts
Huskypup
Jan 4th, 1:28 PM
My conclusion is that OSU is a really good deep-ball team due to speed, Fields's arm, and their OL. But the secondary play, especially the safeties, is just horrendous from Clemson. This is the issue with total conference silos - in retrospect, no ACC team outside Clemson and UNC can actually throw the ball downfield this year. I think Clemson honestly had this huge deficiency all year, and while it did flash some, we really didn't know how bad it was because they never played UNC (I honestly walk away from this thinking UNC would have had a very good shot at beating them). I do think Ohio State is a very good team, but I'm a bit concerned that this was more a result of 1) intense preparation, and 2) a terrible matchup for Clemson. This is why I note in the video whether any of this really translates to the championship. We have had our issues, but our secondary is just miles ahead of what you see in these clips (especially athletically). Offensively, Ohio State spent the whole game disguising coverage, rolling down, and catching Clemson trying to be very horizontal - which is very much not our offense. Notre Dame's secondary, for all their issues, is probably a lot better than OSU or (especially) Clemson against the deep ball, so our schemes will change too.
Something I'll add - if you watch Wilson/Olave highlights, you'll realize they're wide open about 70% of the time. Ohio State probably could have made this even worse if they wanted, but that was in large part because Clemson just absolutely couldn't cover a deep ball to save their lives. Given that they were consistently in a deep zone with numbers, it's astonishing.
In truth, both OSU and Bama were choosing to just run the ball for most of the game and get it over with. The difference, I think, is that OSU was actually facing cloud coverage concepts and a lot of very weak fronts that made it easy for Sermon to tee off. We were facing 7-or-8 man boxes and it made it much more of a grind. But the truth is that both teams were able to take a deep completion about whenever they wanted.
I feel like Wright's issue is much more about reaction time than speed. Battle gets isolated on true receivers and loses, but that wasn't Clemson's issue in clips (the safeties are in deep zones, not man). Hellams is a great athlete overall, I think.
But the ultimate point is that we probably have 4 safeties that are better/faster than anything Clemson can put on the field. Clemson's strategy was to generally put guys that know the scheme and can tackle, but at a certain point the lack of athleticism falls apart. It's the same exact thing you saw with Arkansas this year - great defense against most teams, but the good offenses absolutely shredded them.
Posted on 1/5/21 at 2:28 pm to CrimsonBoz
They really confidently say that our safety play is much better than Clemson's. Feels like that has been one of our weaknesses against any decent offense
Posted on 1/6/21 at 8:52 am to Glorious
Posted on 1/7/21 at 1:44 pm to Panthers4life
LINK
Benjamin Litvin tweeted this.
quote:
If OSU’s DL is as ravaged as this report makes it seem, I don’t see how they can beat Alabama (if the game is played as scheduled). Winning that matchup (DL vs Alabama OL) is really their best path toward getting stops. Not gonna happen if they’re missing a bunch of guys.
Benjamin Litvin tweeted this.
Posted on 1/7/21 at 1:53 pm to Glorious
quote:
They really confidently say that our safety play is much better than Clemson's. Feels like that has been one of our weaknesses against any decent offense
I think safety play has generally been pretty good the last 8 weeks - and that includes Florida. It was dreadful against Ole Miss, possibly the worst I've ever seen, but they seem to have gotten more experience and confidence and played to their abilities. Clemson's biggest issue is that their safeties just aren't very able. Turner was out early, so they had to play kids with no experience, but even when Turner came back he knows where to be but his body isn't good enough to always get there.
Plus - Clemson plays in a way that forces their safeties to run all over the place, and they just didn't have dudes to do it.
This post was edited on 1/7/21 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 1/7/21 at 3:12 pm to paperwasp
Urban Meyer said he knew Ohio St had Clemson beat after watching 5 plays. Meyer said their O line just displaced Clemson's D line. Meyer said all Ohio St had to do was run the track. Meyer said Clemson was so badly matched up front that they had to have their D line run slants, and the Ohio linemen just rode them out of the play. The key for us is not letting their running back run wild like he did vs Clemson. If their running game is gashing us, Fields will have another picnic and we will have to outscore them.
Posted on 1/7/21 at 4:49 pm to Panthers4life
quote:
If OSU’s DL is as ravaged as this report makes it seem, I don’t see how they can beat Alabama (if the game is played as scheduled)
Interesting.
You know, we've been pondering Ohio State's advantages from playing so few games.
I wonder if there is some flip-side correlation with not being exposed to other teams as much, as it relates to their sudden COVID numbers (rather than being spread out throughout the season)?
This post was edited on 1/7/21 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 1/7/21 at 5:47 pm to paperwasp
Posted on 1/7/21 at 5:48 pm to Kcstills17
That's just a link to the youtube homepage, not a specific youtube video
Posted on 1/7/21 at 5:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/7/21 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 1/7/21 at 5:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
try this sorry about that
Posted on 1/7/21 at 6:22 pm to Kcstills17
quote:
an Alabama kicker hitting the game winning field goal
I love Will to death, but my stomach just dropped hearing that
Posted on 1/7/21 at 6:27 pm to Kcstills17
That was really good - thanks for linking it!
This post was edited on 1/7/21 at 6:36 pm
Posted on 1/7/21 at 8:36 pm to Kcstills17
OSU’s line play on both sides gonna give me nightmares
Posted on 1/7/21 at 8:59 pm to BTide
Our DL is much better and more experienced than Clemson's. And, the freshman in the DL rotation is a boss. I'm talking about Tim Smith.
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