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College Football Nerds: Bama has no chance
Posted on 11/28/23 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 11/28/23 at 3:55 pm
To those who are familiar, these guys use analytics to determine who wins games. Both guys were way off on their predictions for the Auburn game. According to their expert, Alabama has no chance against UGA.
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Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:06 pm to bamatide07
quote:
According to their expert, Alabama has no chance against UGA.
??
Their predicted scores were 31-23 and 31-27 and both talked about multiples ways in which we might be a weird matchup for them
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:09 pm to bamatide07
Really not sure why anyone thinks UGA is some unstoppable juggernaut and 'Bama is some sort of pushover. Both teams have nearly identical talent, but 'Bama appears to be the better roster imo.
Hoping the pass rush and OLine both show up Saturday for the Tide.
Hoping the pass rush and OLine both show up Saturday for the Tide.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:11 pm to Glorious
One of them has an account on the on3 site and basically said that Alabama has no shot of winning unless the stars align. It was pretty depressing to read.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:15 pm to bamatide07
I didn't take his post that way at all. Just a clear headed analysis that noted we'll have to play a complete, 4 qtr game to win.
They're really damn good. We're gonna have to play our best game.
They're really damn good. We're gonna have to play our best game.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I listened to it while working earlier
They hedge their bets a lot (“this is my prediction but I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m wrong…”), however they explicitly say they go based on the data and the data we’ve put out there has been inconsistent at best with a “boom” Bama and a “bust” Bama.
They also discussed how they think UGA is entering the game healthier than we are, with their thoughts being Lawson and Key were around 60% last week which hurt us more than putting in their back ups would’ve
Basically it’s going to come down to how much we can take advantage of their young/inexperienced linebackers, and how well can we match up with Bowers on defense
It’s closer than their predictions from 2021 were, and we know how that turned out
They hedge their bets a lot (“this is my prediction but I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m wrong…”), however they explicitly say they go based on the data and the data we’ve put out there has been inconsistent at best with a “boom” Bama and a “bust” Bama.
They also discussed how they think UGA is entering the game healthier than we are, with their thoughts being Lawson and Key were around 60% last week which hurt us more than putting in their back ups would’ve
Basically it’s going to come down to how much we can take advantage of their young/inexperienced linebackers, and how well can we match up with Bowers on defense
It’s closer than their predictions from 2021 were, and we know how that turned out
This post was edited on 11/28/23 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:29 pm to bamatide07
Texas and FSU must BOTH lose, while Alabama wins...simple. 
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:33 pm to coachcrisp
Wrong again
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:34 pm to bamatide07
If Bama beats such an undefeatable team, surely they would be one of the 4 best teams. We needed Georgia to appear invincible to get maximum boost from a hopeful win.
It's understandable... Georgia is on a long win streak and kinda have a little of what Bama was the last decade+.
It's understandable... Georgia is on a long win streak and kinda have a little of what Bama was the last decade+.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 4:50 pm to bamatide07
Watched it earlier today. Seemed pretty level-headed to me.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:46 pm to Glorious
quote:
Their predicted scores were 31-23 and 31-27 and both talked about multiples ways in which we might be a weird matchup for them
31-27 was essentially the opening line and total from Vegas. How smart of them.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:49 pm to HighTide_ATL
quote:
how well can we match up with Bowers on defense
Do we know for sure if Bowers and Mchonkey are even playing?
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:17 pm to FoTownBam
Bowers is. I don’t think 84 is, he may but won’t be 100%
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:19 pm to CrimsonBoz
Bowers is probably not going to be 100% the rest of the year either but he's still a mismatch player if there ever has been one at some percentage lesser than 100 but still participating.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:20 pm to CrimsonBoz
At the end of presentation, the both agree that Bama has a higher ceiling and that if both played tp 100% potential, Bama would win.
They basically think Bama will make enough mistakes and play erratically enough that they will lose.
They basically think Bama will make enough mistakes and play erratically enough that they will lose.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:33 pm to RiverCityTider
quote:
At the end of presentation, the both agree that Bama has a higher ceiling and that if both played tp 100% potential, Bama would win.
They basically think Bama will make enough mistakes and play erratically enough that they will lose.
Yeah, it sounds crazy considering how low things were after the USF game but I think Alabama actually has more overall future NFL starting talent participating on this team than UGA does this year. It is just a lot of them are contributing for their first year or not feature players yet. They're a bit inconsistent.
UGA has been a far more consistent team. They're very talented but I think they're not quite as dynamic on the DL nor mauling on the OL. They've essentially laundered the NFL starting lineups with their linemen for the last two years. Eventually you have a year where the linemen are just very good instead of legendary. It's happened to us. It has happened to them.
But I do agree with the analysis, if both teams live up to their reputations this season then their analysis is correct. UGA will avoid backbreakers, Alabama won't, UGA takes it over in the 4th quarter.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 9:02 pm to bamatide07
Damn, some of the predictions on the Georgia board are wild. Most don't seem to be very confident in their defense, but believe UGA will have no issue scoring bunches on the 'Bama D.
Also, the notion that Dallas Turner is a "headhunter" and will intentionally try to knock Beck out of the game seems to be widely accepted.
I underestimated the delusion of that fanbase.
Also, the notion that Dallas Turner is a "headhunter" and will intentionally try to knock Beck out of the game seems to be widely accepted.
I underestimated the delusion of that fanbase.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 9:13 pm to bamatide07
They (“the nerds”) made logical points. Three of their points that caught my attention and maybe indisputable is: (1) our run game has been a “weakness” for our improving offense; (2) we have yet to play a solid 4 quarter game where both sides of the ball are humming; and (3) Bama can win if Key and Lawson shake back and our offense doesn’t catch the “yips.”
Posted on 11/28/23 at 9:16 pm to Marktastic86
Worst fan base in the conference by far. They make the swamp trash look like Angels.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 9:41 pm to Doug Heffernan
Notre Dame ego with Auburn sized trophy case
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