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Bama's path to the playoff, in 4 very simple steps
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:43 am
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:43 am
Mandatory
1. Alabama defeats Auburn
It goes without saying, but it's important to stress it. It will not be an easy game. Auburn always plays WAY over their heads when the game is @Auburn. They've won 2 of the last 3 there, even when we've had the better team on paper and been the favorite.
2. LSU defeats Georgia in SEC Championship game
In a weird twist of fate, we have to pull for LSU here. Georgia winning would put them into the playoffs and LSU would not fall below us. In other words, LSU can eliminate UGA, but UGA cannot eliminate LSU.
Not mandatory, but extremely helpful
3. Oregon defeats Utah in PAC12 Championship Game
Utah is directly behind us and the PAC12 hasn't gotten a team in the playoffs in several years. The media and pundits have been talking them up and they are playing very well right now. There is a strong possibility that even if #1 and #2 happen, that Utah would jump us for the 4th seed. A Utah loss to Oregon eliminates that threat.
4. Oklahoma loses to either @Oklahoma State or to Baylor in Big12 Championship game
The only other potential jumpee candidate is Oklahoma. I think they are less of a threat to jump us but it's still non-zero. Them losing a game to fully eliminate them would of course be helpful.
So there it is. #1 and #2 absolutely must happen. #3 and #4 are also extremely helpful. If all 4 happen we are 100% in.
1. Alabama defeats Auburn
It goes without saying, but it's important to stress it. It will not be an easy game. Auburn always plays WAY over their heads when the game is @Auburn. They've won 2 of the last 3 there, even when we've had the better team on paper and been the favorite.
2. LSU defeats Georgia in SEC Championship game
In a weird twist of fate, we have to pull for LSU here. Georgia winning would put them into the playoffs and LSU would not fall below us. In other words, LSU can eliminate UGA, but UGA cannot eliminate LSU.
Not mandatory, but extremely helpful
3. Oregon defeats Utah in PAC12 Championship Game
Utah is directly behind us and the PAC12 hasn't gotten a team in the playoffs in several years. The media and pundits have been talking them up and they are playing very well right now. There is a strong possibility that even if #1 and #2 happen, that Utah would jump us for the 4th seed. A Utah loss to Oregon eliminates that threat.
4. Oklahoma loses to either @Oklahoma State or to Baylor in Big12 Championship game
The only other potential jumpee candidate is Oklahoma. I think they are less of a threat to jump us but it's still non-zero. Them losing a game to fully eliminate them would of course be helpful.
So there it is. #1 and #2 absolutely must happen. #3 and #4 are also extremely helpful. If all 4 happen we are 100% in.
This post was edited on 11/25/19 at 11:53 am
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Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:51 am to PEPE
Honestly, I think even if #3 and #4 don’t happen we got a 60% chance. About 95% if just #3 happens.... and obviously 100% if all 4 happen
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:53 am to PEPE
with all the bama fatigue out there. i'm thinking okie lite needs to beat okie then okie needs to beat baylor again. plus osu needs to win out. i dont think they'll hesitate to put 2 bigten teams in leaving bama out
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:55 am to PEPE
Yea I think Baylor is done as well. They aren't gonna make any progress this week playing Kansas so they'll have to jump from ~11th to 4th based simply off the OU game. Probably not gonna happen
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:57 am to crimsontater
I also think Bama has to beat Auburn big. They have to impress. Mac has to impress. I don’t think 20-17 gets us in over a conference champ.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:57 am to PEPE
I think you might have to add under mandatory (or at least almost mandatory) that an 11-1 Minnesota not beat a 12-0 Ohio State in the Big 10 championship game.
In that scenario I could definitely see Minnesota and Ohio State in which pushes Alabama (or Utah or Oklahoma) out.
In that scenario I could definitely see Minnesota and Ohio State in which pushes Alabama (or Utah or Oklahoma) out.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:04 pm to PEPE
I'll be honest - I need to see what we look like against Auburn before I really feel like we deserve to be in the playoffs.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We may not deserve it but we certainly have a chance.
Regardless it will be tough sledding for us against the top 4, big time.
Regardless it will be tough sledding for us against the top 4, big time.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I'll be honest - I need to see what we look like against Auburn before I really feel like we deserve to be in the playoffs.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We wouldn’t deserve it but I think we would be the tallest midget.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:14 pm to PEPE
1 and 3 are what I'm most concerned about.
PEPE, you are correct about Auburn playing over their heads when the game is at Jordan–Hare. Needless to state but we need a convincing win (better than UGA) and I can only hope Mac & team rise to the occasion.
With Oregon looking inept against a 5-5 Arizona State Saturday night (last 7 minutes aside), we shouldn't need to worry about anyone else providing tOSU, LSU and Clemson win out. I have a feeling the committee REALLY wants a PAC12 pick (and not to disappoint Rob Mullens when he walks back into the room).
Personally, I would like us to make the playoffs regardless of our weaknesses. You never know what might happen and it would be the ULTIMATE irony if Bama could win this thing with the adversity the team has faced this year. I think we would still outperform many in the past -- Notre Dame, Michigan State, Clemson, tOSU, OU and Clemson ALL had terrible games in the semi's at one time or another.
Regardless... Roll Tide
PEPE, you are correct about Auburn playing over their heads when the game is at Jordan–Hare. Needless to state but we need a convincing win (better than UGA) and I can only hope Mac & team rise to the occasion.
With Oregon looking inept against a 5-5 Arizona State Saturday night (last 7 minutes aside), we shouldn't need to worry about anyone else providing tOSU, LSU and Clemson win out. I have a feeling the committee REALLY wants a PAC12 pick (and not to disappoint Rob Mullens when he walks back into the room).
Personally, I would like us to make the playoffs regardless of our weaknesses. You never know what might happen and it would be the ULTIMATE irony if Bama could win this thing with the adversity the team has faced this year. I think we would still outperform many in the past -- Notre Dame, Michigan State, Clemson, tOSU, OU and Clemson ALL had terrible games in the semi's at one time or another.
Regardless... Roll Tide
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:15 pm to CrimsonBoz
quote:
Regardless it will be tough sledding for us against the top 4, big time.
Could very well get smoked. Defense isn't holding Ohio State, LSU, or Clemson under 40 (giving up 50 seems real possible) and although I like Mac Jones as a QB I don't think he is ready for that kind of shootout.
Still - give me the shot 10 times out 10 rather than avoiding it by not making the playoffs. We may not "deserve" to be in playoffs this year, but if everyone else is going to frick around and not "deserve" it either I'll gladly take it and make it 6 out of 6 for the CFP playoffs.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:18 pm to elposter
Well, let me rephrase, I need to see how we play against Auburn to decide whether I feel like this team has a chance in a playoff.
Cause the other 3 teams that are in it are damned good football teams, and our only hope before was our offense with our wizard QB.
Cause the other 3 teams that are in it are damned good football teams, and our only hope before was our offense with our wizard QB.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:18 pm to Allthatfades
quote:
I also think Bama has to beat Auburn big.
AU's three losses all came against top-ten teams, with two of those on the road. This will be an extremely difficult game for Bama to win, let alone win big.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:20 pm to PEPE
Another potential scenarios to help Bama, albeit a weak chance of either, is Utah losing to Colorado and Georgia losing to Georgia Tech.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:22 pm to PEPE
All the people clamoring for an 8 team playoff need to realize this is pretty much a poster year for why 4 teams is fine. LSU, Clem and OSU are all shoe ins. The rest are all arguing for a 4th spot and I’m not convinced that 4th team isn’t going to be similar to Notre Dame last year in that they’ll be more of a sacrificial lamb.
I don’t think Utah or Oregon could beat LSU. Oklahoma maybe? But even then LSU has already won the Big12 shootout before.
Realistically we may be able to give them a good game and beat them with Mac, but my point is aside from us and maybe OU I don’t see 3 more teams that really look playoff worthy. 4 teams is fine imo
I don’t think Utah or Oregon could beat LSU. Oklahoma maybe? But even then LSU has already won the Big12 shootout before.
Realistically we may be able to give them a good game and beat them with Mac, but my point is aside from us and maybe OU I don’t see 3 more teams that really look playoff worthy. 4 teams is fine imo
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:24 pm to PEPE
I'm telling yall, we aren't getting in unless Georgia, Utah and Oklahoma all lose.
On Tuesday, Georgia will be 4, we will be 5, Utah will be 6 and OU 7th.
Tua's injury will be their excuse to keep us out even if we beat Auburn.
On Tuesday, Georgia will be 4, we will be 5, Utah will be 6 and OU 7th.
Tua's injury will be their excuse to keep us out even if we beat Auburn.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:26 pm to nb200016
quote:
All the people clamoring for an 8 team playoff need to realize this is pretty much a poster year for why 4 teams is fine. LSU, Clem and OSU are all shoe ins. The rest are all arguing for a 4th spot and I’m not convinced that 4th team isn’t going to be similar to Notre Dame last year in that they’ll be more of a sacrificial lamb.
Agree
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
A lot of people clamoring for more than 4 seem to forget that the only real need for 4 is to ensure the two best aren't left out. Four is adequate to accomplish that. And imo, the committee has done a good job of putting the 4 best teams in the CFP every year.
I definitely want us to get in. Even if we lose in the semi-finals, I'd rather us get in than just play in a non-CFP bowl game we may have a better chance of winning. I think all the CFP publicity, our streak of getting in, and the experience for the freshmen are very valuable. And given our injuries situation, I don't think a CFP loss would really be much of a bad look for our program.
I definitely want us to get in. Even if we lose in the semi-finals, I'd rather us get in than just play in a non-CFP bowl game we may have a better chance of winning. I think all the CFP publicity, our streak of getting in, and the experience for the freshmen are very valuable. And given our injuries situation, I don't think a CFP loss would really be much of a bad look for our program.
This post was edited on 11/25/19 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:36 pm to PEPE
Could be wrong but I think all 4 of those have to happen. Thinking that the next CFP ranking will have Utah and Okie just behind us at 6 & 7, think either of them as a 1-loss champ would likely jump us. Curb-stomping Auburn might make either of those moot but, win or lose, I'm thinking the Iron Bowl will be a competitive game...
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