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re: Bama's path to the playoff, in 4 very simple steps

Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:59 pm to
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:59 pm to
Who to root for this weekend:
Colorado at Utah
Okie State vs Oklahoma
Kansas vs Baylor
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Michigan vs Ohio State
S Carolina vs Clemson
Texas A&M at LSU
This post was edited on 11/25/19 at 1:04 pm
Posted by biclops
Member since Oct 2011
6149 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

Texas A&M at LSU


Not sure that really helps us much unless UGA also beats LSU. Guess it would give us something closer to a quality win, though (aTm), so yeah, I guess that makes sense.
Posted by prevatt33b
Member since Oct 2019
1147 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

Georgia winning would put them into the playoffs and LSU would not fall below us.


LSU, if they got straight smoked by GA, could certainly fall below Alabama. It's very unlikely to happen, but losing non-competitively - something like 45-10 where LSU was never in the game after the second quarter - would/could drop LSU or anyone else out of playoff contention.

The committee really frowns on a team not showing up for a game and putting a non-competitive product on the field, and doing it in the last game of the season would be particularly damning.

Not one team in the country can definitely survive getting absolutely smoked to end the season. Nobody.
Posted by vuvuzela
Oregon
Member since Jun 2010
14663 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 5:01 pm to
What about if Clemson loses the ACCCG? And if Oregon beats Utah or Baylor beats Oklahoma?
This post was edited on 11/25/19 at 5:02 pm
Posted by Goombaw
Kentucky
Member since Jan 2013
5251 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:12 pm to
quote:

Michigan vs Ohio State
Texas A&M at LSU

I don't think either of these help our case.

quote:

S Carolina vs Clemson

If this happens and Alabama wins, I think that puts the Tide safely in at #3.
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:53 pm to
quote:

quote:

Michigan vs Ohio State
Texas A&M at LSU

I don't think either of these help our case.

It helps our case if 1-loss Minn beats OSU in the B1G CG, because that'd give OSU it's 2nd loss. Otherwise, we may end up behind both 1-loss OSU and 1-loss Minn.

It helps our case if 1-loss UGA beats LSU in the SEC CG, because that'd give LSU its 2nd loss. Otherwise we'd end up behind both 1-loss LSU and 1-loss UGA. Also, if A&M beats LSU, they'd likely get ranked giving our resumé another ranked win. There would be a minor hit to our quality loss to LSU if A&M beat them, but LSU would either eliminate UGA, or get left out by losing to both A&M and UGA. So, LSU losing to A&M helps keep us from getting left out no matter who wins the SEC CG.

I might have missed something, but I've thought about that "Who to root for" list pretty thoroughly. The general rule of thumb is that we want as few contenders as possible for the final four to be left standing. Two losses is the surest way for a team to become a non-contender. For example, since Oregon got its 2nd loss, it's now better for us if Oregon beats Utah.
This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 12:08 pm
Posted by Goombaw
Kentucky
Member since Jan 2013
5251 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:40 pm to
Well, I see your point there, but I still think the most realistic scenario is for OSU and LSU to win out. Either of them losing their championship game would be a disaster for us.

What if Clemson wins this weekend but loses in the ACC title game? That would be a debate for the ages with the anti-Bama crowd saying "Alabama can't get in because they got the week off - at least Clemson was playing!" and the pro-Bama people saying "Clemson didn't play anyone all year!"
Posted by Bham Bammer
Member since Nov 2014
14481 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 7:58 am to
Those wanting an 8 team playoff don’t care so much about how many deserving teams there are. They largely are concerned that college football is fading with much of the country because huge swaths of the country don’t have teams participating almost every year.

I think four is fine but I’d be ok with 8 also. I think it actually makes things more interesting. Plus I think you’d end up with on campus playoff games which would be awesome.
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 8:14 am to
quote:

Well, I see your point there, but I still think the most realistic scenario is for OSU and LSU to win out.

It is more realistic that OSU and LSU win out. Same for Clemson.
quote:

Either of them losing their championship game would be a disaster for us.

It would not be a disaster if they already have those losses I listed prior to losing their CGs. Instead, those prior losses would prevent the disasters because OSU and LSU would have 2 back-to-back losses and then most likely would not get in.

The best B1G scenario for us: Mich beats OSU, Wisc beats Minn and then beats OSU in the B1G CG. Then every B1G team would have 2 or more losses. That's unlikely, but not extremely.

This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 10:29 am
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
24479 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 8:17 am to
quote:

Those wanting an 8 team playoff don’t care so much about how many deserving teams there are. They largely are concerned that college football is fading with much of the country because huge swaths of the country don’t have teams participating almost every year.


And also people would be having conniptions watching 3 SEC teams get in every other year
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 8:38 am to
Imo, an 8-team playoff doesn't really solve any problems. If anything, it causes more. Here's a simple way to significantly improve in-season competition determining who gets in the CFP:

3 schedule criteria to qualify for the FBS CFP:
1. P5 must schedule 9 in-conference teams.
2. G5 team must schedule 3 P5 teams.
3. Must not schedule any FCS teams.
Not mandatory for all teams; only required to qualify for CFP. Teams with no real shot at CFP could still schedule weaker teams (incl. FCS) to improve chances of bowl eligibility.

Here's another good alternative: FBS-2 Division for G5-level teams with it's own CFP. No cross-division games among FBS-1, FBS-2 and FCS.
This post was edited on 11/28/19 at 6:32 am
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62759 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 8:41 am to
quote:

Clemson loses the ACCCG?
I'm fixing to pose the question on the sec rant to
all those who have bitched for years it's "conference champions only to the CFP" , mainly disguising their dislike for Bama, will be OK if LSU finishes 12-1 with a loss to UGA and misses the playoffs, and a Virginia goes to the playoffs.
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
18182 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 8:50 am to
quote:

Oklahoma loses @Oklahoma State and beats Baylor in Big12 Championship game


I think this adjustment is the sure requirement alongside the first 3 you listed.

Yes, Bama likely gets VERY strong consideration over a 1 loss conf champ Baylor. Especially if Bama dominates Auburn. But, leaving out a P5 conf champ with the same amount of losses as a non-conf champ would be a first in the CFP era.

The surest path is that both the pac 12 and big 12 champs have two losses
Posted by ArabianKnight
Member since Jul 2010
2617 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 8:57 am to
So I should pull for Less Miles and against Jalen Hurts....I feel dirty.
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
18182 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 9:03 am to
quote:

I should pull for Less Miles and against Jalen Hurts
Is half of you in a time machine?
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 12:55 pm to
Posted by BamaBo7
Madison,MS
Member since Jan 2017
5686 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 5:40 pm to
Reece just said in espn we don’t have a real chance even if we beat the barn.. I call BS
Posted by John Milner
Member since Jan 2015
6478 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 5:47 pm to
quote:

Texas A&M at LSU



Not sure that really helps us much unless UGA also beats LSU. Guess it would give us something closer to a quality win, though (aTm), so yeah, I guess that makes sense.


it should be easy enough to pull for Texas A&M just because of the goofy LSU Rant posters. I don't even need another reason.
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
22525 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 5:48 pm to
A&M posters trolling them would be fun to see
Posted by BamaBo7
Madison,MS
Member since Jan 2017
5686 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 5:54 pm to
Espn really hates us this year..lol

Basically said it’s utah or Oklahoma.. if both win out. We are just a place holder. We really need to lay it on the barn

Bama fatigue is very real
This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 5:55 pm
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