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re: Bama Football Tidings

Posted on 10/11/23 at 3:26 pm to
Posted by Pastor Mike
Florida
Member since Dec 2020
6934 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 3:26 pm to
Gonna need them against UT
Posted by Sl0thstronautEsq
Member since Aug 2018
16734 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 6:07 pm to
Hmm, think we've had a bad week of practice?

quote:

Nick Saban opens his press conference with, "Y'all ready for a lecture?"

"Talk about the importance of nothing. You get up every day, you're entitled to nothing. Nobody owes you nothing. ... Nothing is acceptable but your best."


Charlie Potter Tweet
Posted by EGO3x
Member since Oct 2023
1674 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 6:13 pm to
During the SEC teleconference someone asked Nick how are they 26-0 playing games at 11 am…how do they prepare for these games differently to get so much success…

The answer is we play crappy teams at 11 am. Pretty simple. That’s why it’s an 11 am kick.
Posted by GoatHenry
Member since Dec 2021
83 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 6:15 pm to
Saban on alerting players of a possible eclipse Saturday: "I think the best thing to do would be to text them, because they don't listen all the time."

Yeah I don't think it's going well this week.
This post was edited on 10/11/23 at 6:15 pm
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
83332 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 6:24 pm to
quote:

Yeah I don't think it's going well this week.


I literally texted this to Boz 45 minutes ago without seeing any of Saban's comments:

quote:

Really wish the media would shut the frick up about us being back. There are 10 undefeated teams ranked ahead of us. Let us fly under the radar for once.


Posted by Robot Santa
Member since Oct 2009
46106 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 7:03 pm to
quote:

During the SEC teleconference someone asked Nick how are they 26-0 playing games at 11 am


This is one of the many ways TV has ultimately fricked up the CFB product despite making it significantly more accessible. There should never be a kickoff that early regardless of the teams, much less multiple 11am kickoffs for one team in any given season. It literally serves no purpose other than cramming another half dozen games into the TV schedule. That 10am kickoff in Colorado a few weeks ago was downright shameful, and with 4 West Coast teams joining the B1G it's only a matter of time before there's a 9am local time kickoff thanks to "Big Noon".
This post was edited on 10/11/23 at 7:04 pm
Posted by Gideon Swashbuckler
Member since Sep 2019
8893 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 7:34 pm to
quote:

there's a 9am local time kickoff thanks to "Big Noon".



1100 central is 0900 on the west coast. I loved the TV schedule out there. You could watch football for 12 hours and still hit late Happy Hour.
Posted by Alabama_Fan
The Road Less Traveled
Member since Sep 2020
15805 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 8:09 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51073 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

Mike Rodak @mikerodak

Saban asked if he's preparing his team for Saturday's eclipse.

Saban said he should text players about it, because otherwise they don't listen.

"We should text them what to do on the field."

Sounds like Coach isn’t happy about something.
Posted by Diego Ricardo
Alabama
Member since Dec 2020
11627 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 9:29 pm to
Sounding like the team is practicing and preparing poorly this week. Buckle up for the 11am adventure.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 10/11/23 at 9:31 pm to
Saban today just made me realize he thinks he's got a team that can do some shite.
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
20726 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 8:05 am to
Quick Look Ahead at our Schedule:
FEI/ OFEI / DFEI / (CFN Proj)
Ark: 45 / 76 / 37 (38-18)
#19 UT: 11 / 15 / 19 (23-25)
#22 LSU: 14 / 4 / 63 (40-21)
@UK: 35 / 42 / 34 (24-27)
@AU: 27 / 75 / 10 (31-15)

Takeaways:
-Arkansas might ugly up the game and compress the possessions making the score look close, but they are pretty bad and shouldn’t move the ball on us.
-UT on paper is really balanced and might be a problem if they slow down the run game. My eyes tell me the computer is over estimating them, but that’s a dangerous team and one I was sleeping on a bit after the UF game, we’ll need the DL to pressure Milton and keep their offense off kilter. Really didn’t expect the CFN model to have us as underdogs but I think that USF game is like an anchor on our efficiency right now.
-LSU is a championship level offense with a MAC level defense. If Malachi is out for awhile they will put up numbers with that group of receivers, but so should we.
-UK is pretty average and doesn’t really match up with us very well, it’s basically Arkansas with a somewhat functional offense. That said the model has us as underdogs so this is one worth paying attention to.
-AU: where did that defense come from? Basically the opposite of what you’d expect from a Hugh Freeze team and it tells me to expect a physical, short and ugly Iron Bowl come thanksgiving.

**Quick shoutout to the College Football Nerds for creating their website with the projection model for us to play around with, it’s pretty interesting to see how the computer sees things:
CFN - computer model
This post was edited on 10/12/23 at 11:25 am
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
83332 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 8:08 am to
quote:

If Malachi is out for awhile they will put up numbers with that group of receivers


He should be back by then. Hell, he may be back for Tennessee.
Posted by Sl0thstronautEsq
Member since Aug 2018
16734 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 8:20 am to
quote:

-UT on paper is really balanced and might be a problem if they slow down the run game. My eyes tell me the computer is over estimating them, but that’s a dangerous team and one I was sleeping on a bit after the UF game, we’ll need the DL to pressure Milton and keep their offense off kilter. Really didn’t expect the CFN model to have us as underdogs but I think that USF game is like an anchor on our efficiency right now.


It'll also be interesting to see how they adapt with the loss of McCoy. Even though he wasn't putting up HUGE stats this year, he was still a big mismatch guy and someone you had to account for (especially in the red zone).
This post was edited on 10/12/23 at 8:21 am
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
20726 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 8:24 am to
quote:

It'll also be interesting to see how they adapt with the loss of McCoy. Even though he wasn't putting up HUGE stats this year, he was still a big mismatch guy and someone you had to account for (especially in the red zone).

Agree.

Last year Hyatt was the real field stretcher you had to account for who was opening things up to McCoy by drawing double teams against teams with functional DCs, but McCoy was by far the best UT had this year.

I think it’ll come down to whether they can pass protect long enough against us for Milton to process and find guys downfield.
Posted by Brostache48
Member since Dec 2019
557 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 11:12 am to
Just a quick reminder but their model had us losing the Ole Miss and Texas A&M games. I think it may get more accurate once it has more data from this year to look at, but I wouldn't bet the house on their predictions. I think the USF game is causing a lot of the issues for the model being off on our offense
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
20726 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 11:27 am to
quote:

Just a quick reminder but their model had us losing the Ole Miss and Texas A&M games. I think it may get more accurate once it has more data from this year to look at, but I wouldn't bet the house on their predictions. I think the USF game is causing a lot of the issues for the model being off on our offense

Couldn't agree more.

Short of a major player going down to injury I cant think of a better way to bust a model with only a few games to work with than to basically take a game off against a bad team.

I wish we could remove that from the source data because I think we'd end up with a much better sense of where we are functionally, but it is what it is.

It is still worth recognizing that the computer thinks we drop two more games and that even without USF in the mix those are both far more competitive games than at least I would've suspected.
Posted by Brostache48
Member since Dec 2019
557 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 11:47 am to
It's also worth noting before this last weekend, I can't say this with 100% certainty but I think their model had us losing pretty bad to Kentucky. I want to say it was around 37-20
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
26153 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

Last year Hyatt was the real field stretcher you had to account for who was opening things


They also went from Hooker to Milton. The former was a demon throwing deep balls and the latter is like a QB in NCAA ‘14 with 99 Throw Power and 65 Throw Accuracy

Milton is by no means a bad QB. But Hooker and Huepel were a near perfect match
This post was edited on 10/12/23 at 12:10 pm
Posted by GoatHenry
Member since Dec 2021
83 posts
Posted on 10/12/23 at 12:08 pm to
Models are going to hate this offense because we are not efficient and every podcast or interview I have heard with a model guy this is what they have the computers looking for not to mention the USF game. Milroe takes sacks he doesnt have to and cant throw the ball away to save yards, we don't convert 3rd downs or TDs in the red zone well. We can't run the ball or throw short to setup 2&6 and 3&short at all. It's like a season of Tua in the 2nd half of 17 title game but you know what we can do just like Tua in 17 hit bombs. It's hard for a computer to understand and properly evaluate that kind of offense.
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