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Should all the 3*s be a cause for concern?
Posted on 2/3/22 at 7:49 am
Posted on 2/3/22 at 7:49 am
Over the past few years my perception is that we have feasted on 4 and 5 stars. This year not so much. There's been a lot of hay made attributing this to a large degree, to our rise and dominance. Any cause for concern? There's just too many factors involved, (including my ignorance on the subject) for me to come to an informed opinion. That's why I ask. Tks.
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 7:50 am
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Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:04 am to SemperFiDawg
We still feasted, over half are 4 and 5 stars. I think we have smartly looked at underrated 3 stars as we have become more sophisticated at scouting talent across all levels. It is the number 3 class.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:06 am to SemperFiDawg
You don’t trust Kirby after a national title? Kirby clearly has a damn good track record coaching players up no matter what idiot recruiting analysts think.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:07 am to SemperFiDawg
quote:
Should [anything at all in any way related to recruiting under Kirby] be a cause for concern?
No. Obviously you'd love to have all 4 and 5s and zero 3 and belows but that's not realistic. Kirby has proven without fail ever since he's been here to be one of the absolute elites of the elite in america when it comes to recruiting, so as long as he's in charge we shouldn't worry abotu anything. Also worth pointing out that we (like alabama and everyone else) have our own evaluation process and our coaches don't just look at 247 ha. We find 3* guys like Jordan Davis, stetson, ladd, shaffer, brini, stokes that have played big roles for us. And also, of course, you can't get everyone. We will miss on guys we desperately want every single year but so will everyone else.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:11 am to SemperFiDawg
were you concerned by Jordan Davis' play? He was a 3*
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:37 am to SemperFiDawg
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:43 am to SemperFiDawg
The last two years are different than any other when it comes to prospects and their ratings. In 20 there was no season or camps for guys to get exposure for rating services. Two recent examples: Brock Bowers who had no senior season of high school and AD Mitchell. I think that both of these guys would’ve been rated higher if given the exposure that classes before them had. Paul very well could be rated higher if given more exposure. The low classification private school thing doesn’t hold up IMO. Marlon Brown and Brock Vandagriff we’re both 5* after dominating similar competition. This was an off year for OL but the coaches like the prospects we got for development except Green. I could go on but I’ll stop.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:54 am to FirstCityDawg
I trust the staff. The amount of guys coached up + the natty make me believe we are in good hands.
Only area I'd like to see pic up in recruiting is WR and I believe BMacs return home will do just that.
Only area I'd like to see pic up in recruiting is WR and I believe BMacs return home will do just that.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:55 am to SemperFiDawg
We're 3rd in the nation in recruiting, just being eked out of the #1 spot by aTm and Bama.
Concern? I think we're getting spoiled.
Concern? I think we're getting spoiled.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:58 am to SemperFiDawg
Finding talented 3 stars who are "hungry" and play with less attitude than a diva 5 star are more valuable overall for the team IMO.
You put them in with a mix of 5 stars and it's gasoline on a fire.
Interested to see how Jimbo handles all of those NIL 5 stars, he hasn't been that good at managing those egos in the past.
You put them in with a mix of 5 stars and it's gasoline on a fire.
Interested to see how Jimbo handles all of those NIL 5 stars, he hasn't been that good at managing those egos in the past.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 9:45 am to Dawg4Life47
Exactly! The portal has guys in it every year that were hot stuff coming out of HS but unable to impress at the collegiate level, hence they go on looking for another chance to impress a coaching staff.
You still can only put eleven on the field at any one time and you can still can only play with one football.
Look at this Jimbo class after two years and see how many of them are still at A&M.
You still can only put eleven on the field at any one time and you can still can only play with one football.
Look at this Jimbo class after two years and see how many of them are still at A&M.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 10:06 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
No. Obviously you'd love to have all 4 and 5s and zero 3 and belows...
With the portal + one free transfer, not sure this is really even accurate. Along with 5* (and high 4*) status frequently comes a sense of entitlement, or at the very least "expectations" attached that may or may not be realistic once they arrive on campus. I think the staff does a great job of trying to find the right fits, and balancing out some of the guys that you take for talent and know that there is a chance that if they don't see the field early/often enough they could be flight risks coupled with guys who know they are a little more developmental and are willing to get in for a longer ride to see how it shakes out for them.
quote:
We find 3* guys like Jordan Davis, stetson, ladd, shaffer, brini, stokes that have played big roles for us
This. You have to trust your own evaluation. There are guys that the recruiting industry misses on... both directions. You don't want the bulk of your class to be "reaches" simply due to odds being lower that they hit, but with Kirby that's really not a concern.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 10:10 am to SemperFiDawg
I count 9 *** stars in a class of 29 kids. That is 20 kids who are **** star plus. One of those 9 is the #2 punter in the country.
Last year, we had 5 *** in a class of 23. That is 18 kids who are 4 star plus.
2020 had 6 kids who are *** star in a class of 25. That is 19 kids who are 4 star plus. One of the 6 *** was a kicker who i believe we just got that initial counter back.
2019 had 4 kids who are *** star in a class of 24. That is 20 kids who are 4 star plus. One of those was a juco transfer from Jones College.
I dont see any reason for concern at all. If anything, you are noticing the class size which im guessing is proportional to transfers leaving.
Last year, we had 5 *** in a class of 23. That is 18 kids who are 4 star plus.
2020 had 6 kids who are *** star in a class of 25. That is 19 kids who are 4 star plus. One of the 6 *** was a kicker who i believe we just got that initial counter back.
2019 had 4 kids who are *** star in a class of 24. That is 20 kids who are 4 star plus. One of those was a juco transfer from Jones College.
I dont see any reason for concern at all. If anything, you are noticing the class size which im guessing is proportional to transfers leaving.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 10:22 am to SemperFiDawg
About 7 or 8 years ago, i developed a theory about the strength of a recruiting class being the number of kids rated .9400 or higher. I developed the theory tracking grades and determining an impact rate (can it be argued that the kid is top 4 at his position in conference. Someone who may honorable mention in an all conference list). The ratio was pretty close to 1 out of 2 kids at that time would finish their college career at least one season in that range.
As it happens, .9400 is usually a top 150 recruit in the country.
This year, we have 14 kids .9400+
Last year, we had 11 kids .9400+
2020 had 12 kids .9400+
2019 had 10 kids .9400+
2018 had 14 kids .9400+
2017 had 9 kids .9400+
2016 had 7 kids .9400+
2015 had 7 kids .9400+
2014 had 6 kids .9400+
2013 (after an SEC CG appearance) had 3 kids .9400+. This class was the deathnail to Richt's career at UGA. In total, it was 32 recruits. But a serious lack of substance.
I havent gone back to confirm if the hit ratio is still 2 recruits for every hit. But the concept remains that these recruits are high 4 stars (closer to 5 star than they are 3 star).
And it gives one picture of how different Kirby recruits than Richt.
Edit to add: this is also pushback on "blue chip ratios" which include a kid rated .8890 as a low 4 star the equivalent to a 5 star .9890.
2nd edit: i teetered on including .9200-.9399 in the tally during research. Some seasons, it would have strong ratios. Some seasons, it would not. The lack of consistency and small sample of recruits in that tight window made me leave it out. Plus, it is easier to say "these kids are closer to 5 stars than 3 stars" without that sample.
As it happens, .9400 is usually a top 150 recruit in the country.
This year, we have 14 kids .9400+
Last year, we had 11 kids .9400+
2020 had 12 kids .9400+
2019 had 10 kids .9400+
2018 had 14 kids .9400+
2017 had 9 kids .9400+
2016 had 7 kids .9400+
2015 had 7 kids .9400+
2014 had 6 kids .9400+
2013 (after an SEC CG appearance) had 3 kids .9400+. This class was the deathnail to Richt's career at UGA. In total, it was 32 recruits. But a serious lack of substance.
I havent gone back to confirm if the hit ratio is still 2 recruits for every hit. But the concept remains that these recruits are high 4 stars (closer to 5 star than they are 3 star).
And it gives one picture of how different Kirby recruits than Richt.
Edit to add: this is also pushback on "blue chip ratios" which include a kid rated .8890 as a low 4 star the equivalent to a 5 star .9890.
2nd edit: i teetered on including .9200-.9399 in the tally during research. Some seasons, it would have strong ratios. Some seasons, it would not. The lack of consistency and small sample of recruits in that tight window made me leave it out. Plus, it is easier to say "these kids are closer to 5 stars than 3 stars" without that sample.
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 10:35 am
Posted on 2/3/22 at 10:31 am to meansonny
The * matter for sure. It’s one thing.
With transfers and NIL..playing time will continue to be such a huge factor. The divas are gonna show themselves. The kids that want it ..will grown, stay and shine. Very few of of this class aren’t talented.
Many of them would be the top recruit at most schools.
I can’t even imagine trying to coach and maintain a program in this environment.
With transfers and NIL..playing time will continue to be such a huge factor. The divas are gonna show themselves. The kids that want it ..will grown, stay and shine. Very few of of this class aren’t talented.
Many of them would be the top recruit at most schools.
I can’t even imagine trying to coach and maintain a program in this environment.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 10:41 am to SemperFiDawg
No, a lot of talented players get overlooked by the recruiting sites. Would not be surprised if a few of them turn out to be starters one day
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 10:42 am
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:05 am to mikehoncho69
quote:
No, a lot of talented players get overlooked by the recruiting sites. Would not be surprised if a few of them turn out to be starters one day
From our 2018 *** stars, jake camarda and jordan davis are all conference. Owen Condon got 1 start. 2 *** (nadab joseph and tramel walthour) were ineligible to attend out if high school.
From our 2019 *** stars, i would argue Stetson Bennett is top 4 at his position in conference (walthour, Seither, Tymon Mitchell, and Logue all still have a year to make a push).
From our 2020 *** stars, Zirkel, McConkey, and Willock should make a push for opportunities. Kinnie and Blaske appear buried on the depth chart. Branch is gone.
From our 2021 *** stars, AD Mitchell is making a push for all conference while Javon Bullard will push for an active role. Meeks, Marlin Dean, and Jared Wilson appear buried on the depth chart (meeks may have a larger role on special teams)
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:35 am to SemperFiDawg
Our total 247 composite score is 316.91
That's higher than last year.
That's higher than the year before, which was a #1 class.
I think we did alright.
That's higher than last year.
That's higher than the year before, which was a #1 class.
I think we did alright.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:47 am to SemperFiDawg
In a word, no.
I trust staff evals over star ranking every time, especially this staff's evals.
I trust staff evals over star ranking every time, especially this staff's evals.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 12:47 pm to K9
quote:
were you concerned by Jordan Davis' play? He was a 3*
Came here to say this.
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