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Could the offense’s real problem be in the running game?
Posted on 11/20/19 at 7:26 am
Posted on 11/20/19 at 7:26 am
Our running game has been quietly getting worse over the last 3 seasons. Part of it is probably due to only having Swift left out of that loaded backfield of 2017, after all, Swift is still having a great year.
But look at the numbers over a 3-year stretch:
2017:
44.6 rushing attempts per game
5.8 yards per attempt
258 yards per game
2.8 rushing TD’s per game
2018:
40.5 attempts per game
5.9 ypc
239 yards per game
2.1 TD/game
2019 (10 games in):
38.4 attempts per game
5.4 yards per carry
208 yards per game
1.8 TD/game
I think the underlying issue could be that we’re not as committed to the run as we used to be (see the attempts per game drop year-to-year) and I’m wondering if that’s playing into Fromm’s regression from ‘18 to ‘19. He’s still having a good TD/INT ratio, but his completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating are all trending down all while he’s having the lowest sack rate of his career.
I did a thread last year about how Fromm improves when his attempts stay in the high teens to low 20’s. This year, we’re averaging 26 pass attempts per game (easily a career high for Fromm for a season). That tells me we’re not having the kind of run/pass rate that has produced good offensive production for us in the past.
I think people were complaining that we were running the ball too much earlier in the year, but the numbers don’t show a team over-reliant on the run. In fact, it’s the opposite. Right now, we seem to be relying too heavily on a passing game that only seems to operate well when it’s used moderately.
TL:DR - The offense has been frustrating (minus the Florida game) and we’re all taking guesses as to how to fix it, but this is an issue that actually seems to be supported by the numbers. Our running game isn’t a strong enough threat right now.
But look at the numbers over a 3-year stretch:
2017:
44.6 rushing attempts per game
5.8 yards per attempt
258 yards per game
2.8 rushing TD’s per game
2018:
40.5 attempts per game
5.9 ypc
239 yards per game
2.1 TD/game
2019 (10 games in):
38.4 attempts per game
5.4 yards per carry
208 yards per game
1.8 TD/game
I think the underlying issue could be that we’re not as committed to the run as we used to be (see the attempts per game drop year-to-year) and I’m wondering if that’s playing into Fromm’s regression from ‘18 to ‘19. He’s still having a good TD/INT ratio, but his completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating are all trending down all while he’s having the lowest sack rate of his career.
I did a thread last year about how Fromm improves when his attempts stay in the high teens to low 20’s. This year, we’re averaging 26 pass attempts per game (easily a career high for Fromm for a season). That tells me we’re not having the kind of run/pass rate that has produced good offensive production for us in the past.
I think people were complaining that we were running the ball too much earlier in the year, but the numbers don’t show a team over-reliant on the run. In fact, it’s the opposite. Right now, we seem to be relying too heavily on a passing game that only seems to operate well when it’s used moderately.
TL:DR - The offense has been frustrating (minus the Florida game) and we’re all taking guesses as to how to fix it, but this is an issue that actually seems to be supported by the numbers. Our running game isn’t a strong enough threat right now.
This post was edited on 11/20/19 at 7:29 am
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Posted on 11/20/19 at 7:40 am to BranchDawg
It's the lack of outside/misdirection in the running game, of those 38 rushes I bet 30-32 are inside zone.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 7:58 am to bigdawg7780
I agree. We’re definitely not as effective running the ball, but our outside running game has been very good when we’ve actually used it.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 8:19 am to BranchDawg
A lot of it is on the execution by the OL. They're not always getting to the second and third level to make the extra blocks. But the backs are also not making people miss like Chubb and Michel.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 8:25 am to BranchDawg
The skill sets of our backs fit much better when we run to the hash’s. We run dives/draws 80% of the time. Even the toss we run out of the gun works every time we run it. As far as the running game contributing to our offensive woes, I disagree. With the speed we had at receiver last season, defenses had to respect it. If the passing game becomes less effective, it’s going to ripple down to the running game.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 8:45 am to BranchDawg
I doubt it’s a huge issue (and we certainly play into it with our style etc) but I wonder if all the bye weeks for other teams have played any role in the struggles. Conversely it doesn’t seem to have affected the defense and I’m not going to go looking up the stats for post bye vs not post bye but was just thinking about it earlier. Definitely not an excuse though.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 8:59 am to BranchDawg
I started worrying when our Oline became known as the great wall of Georgia. Walls are not that easy to run through. None of our schemes, pass or run, seem to work that well.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:07 am to Whiznot
quote:
Walls are not that easy to run through. None of our schemes, pass or run, seem to work that well.
Our pass blocking is the best in the country and our run game isn’t objectively bad, it just isn’t dominant like you’d expect it to be.
Not that I expect us to pop 300 yards against a great D like Auburn, but you’d expect us to be able to line up and grind average defenses out with no issue.
This post was edited on 11/20/19 at 9:11 am
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:19 am to BranchDawg
You can talk about stats, plays, utilization, schemes...whatever you want to lay blame to as all have some affect.
The big reason to blame is we had DGDs in the backfield that are currently wreaking havoc in the NFL. We were spoiled. Think about what we have had, at the same time. Gurley/Marshall/Chubb/Michel/Swift/Holyfield. There’s been some sort of combo with all of these studs with Holyfield being the lowest upside of any player.
This year, it’s Swift. Herrien is a great player and teammate but he hasn’t had the explosiveness that even Holyfield has.
All of the issues mentioned by everyone are valid. But we also just don’t have the horses we’ve been blessed with. We’re looking to reload but we may never be that lucky again.
The big reason to blame is we had DGDs in the backfield that are currently wreaking havoc in the NFL. We were spoiled. Think about what we have had, at the same time. Gurley/Marshall/Chubb/Michel/Swift/Holyfield. There’s been some sort of combo with all of these studs with Holyfield being the lowest upside of any player.
This year, it’s Swift. Herrien is a great player and teammate but he hasn’t had the explosiveness that even Holyfield has.
All of the issues mentioned by everyone are valid. But we also just don’t have the horses we’ve been blessed with. We’re looking to reload but we may never be that lucky again.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:29 am to BranchDawg
I believe it's because teams have stacked the box even more than in past years because of struggles in the passing game, new receiver corps, and a new OC. Defenses just don't fear our passing game or receivers as much.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:37 am to HTDawg
I would buy that if our yards per carry had taken a severe dip and they haven’t. They actually went up (barely) from ‘17 to ‘18 then took a slight dip this year. What’s consistency going down year by year is attempts per game. We’re becoming more pass heavy every year and it’s getting us away from the run/pass rate that seems to work for us.
Also, I don’t believe teams are stacking the box any more than they did in 2017 when we had two well documented stud running backs and were breaking in a true freshman on the fly and everyone knew we were just going to line up and pound the ball. Boxes were pretty stacked then and we ran the shite out of the ball.
Also, I don’t believe teams are stacking the box any more than they did in 2017 when we had two well documented stud running backs and were breaking in a true freshman on the fly and everyone knew we were just going to line up and pound the ball. Boxes were pretty stacked then and we ran the shite out of the ball.
This post was edited on 11/20/19 at 9:38 am
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:41 am to CBBDawg316
quote:
This year, it’s Swift
And he's already reached 1,000 yards. And compared to all of 2018, he's had one fewer 20+ yard run and so far he's ran 10+ yards 31 times (compared to 32 times all last year). So the "explosive" runs are there.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:49 am to Spaceman Spiff
You and CBB are on it.
The difference is quality of backs (behind Swift).
2017, we had 3 elite backs.
2018, we had 1 elite back and 1 very good back.
2019, we have 1 elite back. Herrien is giving us juice in the passing game. But that juice isnt there in the run game.
The difference is quality of backs (behind Swift).
2017, we had 3 elite backs.
2018, we had 1 elite back and 1 very good back.
2019, we have 1 elite back. Herrien is giving us juice in the passing game. But that juice isnt there in the run game.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 10:04 am to meansonny
quote:
The difference is quality of backs (behind Swift).
And let's not forget that we lost - what was it, 5? - all those quality receivers, too. I may get downvoted, but I feel its more of the backs/receiver issue than play calling, but some on here are adamant that its the other way around (including those Fields suckers).
Now, the question also it what's up with Zeus? He's better than Herrien but maybe he's showing something in practice we aren't aware of.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 10:11 am to meansonny
The main problems with the offense are:
1. Coaching. This isn't just playcalling. You can see it in the play of every unit other than the O-Line.
2. Playcalling. Yes this is included in #1, but it's bad enough to get it's own bullet. The most important recruit UGA will sign this year is an O-Coordinator.
3. Inconsistency and poor play from Fromm. This is #3 because I believe 1 & 2 have had a large part in this. I've posted a few times about bad things I see Fromm doing, and I put a lot of the blame on the 3rd year starter. All of it, however, is partly a reflection of what you see in the play calling.
1. Coaching. This isn't just playcalling. You can see it in the play of every unit other than the O-Line.
2. Playcalling. Yes this is included in #1, but it's bad enough to get it's own bullet. The most important recruit UGA will sign this year is an O-Coordinator.
3. Inconsistency and poor play from Fromm. This is #3 because I believe 1 & 2 have had a large part in this. I've posted a few times about bad things I see Fromm doing, and I put a lot of the blame on the 3rd year starter. All of it, however, is partly a reflection of what you see in the play calling.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 10:50 am to Spaceman Spiff
I don’t think the backfield is the issue. Sure it’s almost impossible to replace Chubb and Michel but if the holes were there we have backs good enough to run through them. For whatever reason we aren’t opening up the running lanes like we were the past couple of years. Our offensive line is supposed to be better but for whatever reason they aren’t(at least in terms of running the ball).
This post was edited on 11/20/19 at 10:51 am
Posted on 11/20/19 at 11:02 am to meansonny
quote:
But that juice isnt there in the run game.
Herrien has had 6 carries on 3rd down with 1-3 yards to go and converted 5 first downs. That's pretty good juice when needed.
Swift? 7 carries with 1-3 ytg for 6 first downs.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 11:06 am to BranchDawg
quote:
Our pass blocking is the best in the country and our run game isn’t objectively bad, it just isn’t dominant like you’d expect it to be.
Not that I expect us to pop 300 yards against a great D like Auburn, but you’d expect us to be able to line up and grind average defenses out with no issue.
Our pass blocking is good no doubt. Fromm makes it better by getting rid of it and not taking a sack. He takes less risks, so in turn less sacks and INTs and fumbles. Down side is less completions on riskier passes that could turn into positive yards or even big plays. I feel this is a core philosophy of our coach.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 11:20 am to Peter Buck
On a side note, is something going on with Landers this week?
Posted on 11/20/19 at 11:23 am to FlexDawg
quote:
For whatever reason we aren’t opening up the running lanes like we were the past couple of years. Our offensive line is supposed to be better but for whatever reason they aren’t(at least in terms of running the ball).
See my above stats for Swift. And he's about to surpass his 2018 production. No running, eh?
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