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re: Max starting vs. Miami

Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:52 pm to
Posted by jvilardo
5024 e. Brooks Town BR, La.
Member since Jan 2012
3281 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:52 pm to
Correct.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2986 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 10:48 pm to
So here's the question: is Jimbo good enough to cover for a bad Max day? And is Max good enough to cover for a bad Jimbo day?

Or so we need the two to synch their bad days to kill 2 birds with one stone?
Posted by Ag_16
Your moms house
Member since Oct 2019
2659 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 8:27 am to
I think if Jimbo is having a good play calling day he can cover for max but I don’t see max being able to over come Jimbos bad play calling. So I think it comes down to which Jimbo do we get
I don’t think Max is gonna make huge mistakes and hurt us but can Jimbo put him in position to make the big play
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55228 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:01 am to
I think it would be wrong to just assume that Max will not grow between game one game two. He’s got a lot of experience I want to believe that improvement and growth will occur between the first game of the year and the next. I don’t think we lose the Appalachian State if Max is it under center
Posted by Captain Crown
Member since Jun 2011
50691 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:17 am to
quote:

I think it would be wrong to just assume that Max will not grow between game one game two


sighs..
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55228 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:20 am to
I didn’t say become a Heisman candidate, but assuming that he wouldn’t be less rusty from the off-season in game 2 …
Posted by Ag_16
Your moms house
Member since Oct 2019
2659 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:34 am to
Him having 2 of his weapons back should (hopefully) help
Posted by Ag_16
Your moms house
Member since Oct 2019
2659 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:38 am to
My biggest fear is Arkansas is just gonna run all day on us and we won’t be able to stop it. Seems very likely
Posted by Tridentds
Sugar Land
Member since Aug 2011
20354 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:48 am to
If we can’t sustain drives and score into the mid-twenties we probably lose.

Considering how much defense is on the field they look fine to me. We are t losing to Hogs because of our defense.
Posted by Nguyening
SEMO
Member since Jun 2013
9057 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

This offense will be lucky to score 14 points without help from the defense


Special teams*
Posted by Tantal
Member since Sep 2012
13906 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:46 pm to
quote:

My biggest fear is Arkansas is just gonna run all day on us and we won’t be able to stop it.

Durkin needs to load the box and hope that our DBs can maintain coverage on the back end. Make KJ beat us with his arm.
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 8:08 pm
Posted by Captain Crown
Member since Jun 2011
50691 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:52 am to
I just feel pain having to watch him play remembering his time at LSU
Posted by Roger Klarvin
DFW
Member since Nov 2012
46505 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:33 pm to
He's honestly not much different than 2018/2019 Kellen Mond so we're used to it

He definitely has cajones and will stand in and take a hit better than Mond did though
Posted by Roger Klarvin
DFW
Member since Nov 2012
46505 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

My biggest fear is Arkansas is just gonna run all day on us and we won’t be able to stop it. Seems very likely


Within a standard deviation of the average either way, running the ball has very little correlation with winning. Only on the extremes of the spectrum (two standard deviations in either direction) does it impact your chances of winning in a meaningful way. This is because that unless you are just dominant running the ball, you wont consistently be able to drive the field doing that and score enough to win. And unless you are just miserable at running the ball it doesnt impact your ability to throw the ball much.

App State didnt win the game or dominate TOP because they ran the ball well. They did that because we couldnt throw the ball well.

The bottom line is that if we can exploit Arkansas' passing defense for a few big plays it will offset their rushing advantage almost entirely. If we cant, they'll probably win by a couple scores.
This post was edited on 9/23/22 at 9:39 pm
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2986 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

App State didnt win the game or dominate TOP because they ran the ball well. They did that because we couldnt throw the ball well.

What?

They had drives of
18 plays
15 plays
13 plays
11 plays

That's is certainly part of the reason they dominated the clock and won the game. It doesn't explain it all, and our offense played a role, but to discount what they did (or what Arkansas is capable of doing to us tomorrow) is foolish
Posted by Roger Klarvin
DFW
Member since Nov 2012
46505 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

What?

They had drives of
18 plays
15 plays
13 plays
11 plays

That's is certainly part of the reason they dominated the clock and won the game. It doesn't explain it all, and our offense played a role, but to discount what they did (or what Arkansas is capable of doing to us tomorrow) is foolish




Allow me to amend my statement:

App State didnt win the game because they ran the ball well. They won because we couldnt throw the ball well.

They would have won TOP regardless, but an average offense still wins that game by 3-4 scores if they can throw the ball effectively. Their TOP advantage wouldnt have mattered at all except for our complete inability to effectively pass the football, which is the point. Games are decided in modern college football by who passing the ball most efficiently and effectively.

And the reality is they really didnt run the ball "well", they just ran so consistently that their 3-5 yards per carry menat they hardly punted. They played the game the same way the service academies do. That's not how any other team will play us, even Arkansas. Arkansas could average 6 YPC and they will still try to throw enough that if we stop it they'll punt or turn it over a decent amount.
This post was edited on 9/23/22 at 9:51 pm
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2986 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:56 pm to
quote:

App State didnt win the game because they ran the ball well. They won because we couldnt throw the ball well.

I'm as big a fan of modern football as anyone, but this is completely ignoring what actually happened that game.

You are correct that our passing game was a huge factor, but App State ran the perfect recipe for upsetting a more talented team.

Run the ball, control the clock, limit possessions. Tried and true formula in a single game setting (especially against a more talented team) and no amount of advanced analytics is going to explain that away.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2986 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 10:01 pm to
If App State didnt run the ball well, they wouldn't have won.

If Arkansas doesn't run the ball well tomorrow, I don't think they'll win.
This post was edited on 9/23/22 at 10:02 pm
Posted by Roger Klarvin
DFW
Member since Nov 2012
46505 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 10:47 pm to
quote:

If App State didnt run the ball well, they wouldn't have won.


They'd have likely won regardless of how they tried to play offensively, because there's no evidnece us getting more possessions would have had much impact on the game. We were that abysmal offensively.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2986 posts
Posted on 9/23/22 at 10:58 pm to
quote:

They'd have likely won regardless of how they tried to play offensively, because there's no evidnece us getting more possessions would have had much impact on the game. We were that abysmal offensively.

You're completely ignoring that App St was terrible passing the ball too.

Both teams sucked at passing, both teams got a cheap TD, and App St was clearly the better rushing team. Insisting that the clear advantage in rushing didn't matter is weird.
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