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How we stack up against Mississippi State
Posted on 10/21/18 at 8:28 pm
Posted on 10/21/18 at 8:28 pm
Rush Offense vs. Rush Defense - EVEN
A&M Rush Offense - 35th
MSU Rush Defense - 21st
Rush Defense vs. Rush Offense - EVEN
A&M Rush Defense - 4th
MSU Rush Offense - 16th
Pass Offense vs. Pass Defense - EVEN
A&M Pass Offense - 23rd
MSU Pass Defense - 10th
Pass Defense vs. Pass Offense - Slight advantage A&M
A&M Pass Defense - 91st
MSU Pass Offense - 110th
Total Offense vs. Total Defense - EVEN
A&M Total Offense - 14th
MSU Total Defense - 6th
Total Defense vs. Total Offense - Advantage A&M
A&M Total Defense - T23rd
MSU Total Offense - 69th
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense - Advantage MSU
A&M Scoring Offense - 46th
MSU Scoring Defense - 4th
Scoring Defense vs. Scoring Offense - Advantage A&M
A&M Scoring Defense - 29th
MSU Scoring Offense - T81st
Here is the stat that wins the game for A&M
Net Punting
A&M - 1st
MSU - 78th
If Mann keeps Mississippi State in their own end of the field and the Aggies don't turn the ball over, A&M wins by a couple of field goals.
A&M Rush Offense - 35th
MSU Rush Defense - 21st
Rush Defense vs. Rush Offense - EVEN
A&M Rush Defense - 4th
MSU Rush Offense - 16th
Pass Offense vs. Pass Defense - EVEN
A&M Pass Offense - 23rd
MSU Pass Defense - 10th
Pass Defense vs. Pass Offense - Slight advantage A&M
A&M Pass Defense - 91st
MSU Pass Offense - 110th
Total Offense vs. Total Defense - EVEN
A&M Total Offense - 14th
MSU Total Defense - 6th
Total Defense vs. Total Offense - Advantage A&M
A&M Total Defense - T23rd
MSU Total Offense - 69th
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense - Advantage MSU
A&M Scoring Offense - 46th
MSU Scoring Defense - 4th
Scoring Defense vs. Scoring Offense - Advantage A&M
A&M Scoring Defense - 29th
MSU Scoring Offense - T81st
Here is the stat that wins the game for A&M
Net Punting
A&M - 1st
MSU - 78th
If Mann keeps Mississippi State in their own end of the field and the Aggies don't turn the ball over, A&M wins by a couple of field goals.
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Posted on 10/21/18 at 8:33 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Posted on 10/21/18 at 9:07 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Lobo, this is my favorite thread early each week. Thanks for the work in putting it together.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 10:37 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Our adjusted run defense based on the Massey formula is #1 in the country (corrects for quality of opposing offenses faced). We shut down three of the top 15 teams in the country in rushing efficiency (Bama, UK, Clemson) on the ground.
Our offense is also BY FAR the best offense State has faced this year and their adjusted total defense is only the 4th best we’ve faced (Behind Bama, Clemson and UK).
This is very similar to the UK game, albeit State runs the ball in different ways. UK uses a very finesse QB run game and Snellis who they run power concepts with. State runs QB power, power option and read 30-40 times per game.
Our offense is also BY FAR the best offense State has faced this year and their adjusted total defense is only the 4th best we’ve faced (Behind Bama, Clemson and UK).
This is very similar to the UK game, albeit State runs the ball in different ways. UK uses a very finesse QB run game and Snellis who they run power concepts with. State runs QB power, power option and read 30-40 times per game.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 10:40 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Also, our pass defense really isn’t THAT bad all things considered. We’ve faced what will end up being the best passing offense in terms of efficiency in NCAA history (Bama) and a top 10 passing efficiency offense (Clemson). We held Arkansas, UK and USC all below their passing yardage and efficiency averages and our adjusted passing defense is 59th. Not good, but not the total abortion everyone believed it to be.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:13 am to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Our adjusted run defense based on the Massey formula is #1 in the country (corrects for quality of opposing offenses faced).
Can someone explain to me how this is possible?
Our run defense has been terrible for what feels like more than a decade across many different highly respected coordinators.
How in the hell did this staff finally turn it around with a group of seniors who haven’t gotten it done their entire careers?
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:19 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
How in the hell did this staff finally turn it around with a group of seniors who haven’t gotten it done their entire careers?
Less plays run on defense allow less yards to be racked up on our D. If you look at average yards per rush allowed we aren't even in the top 15. We are #1 in the fewest rushing attempts against per game at 25.14. That's a combination of having a bad pass D and our offense having the best TOP in CFB.
cfbstats.com Rush Defense Rankings
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 9:20 am
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:39 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
Can someone explain to me how this is possible?
It’s multifactorial
First, our defense is facing fewer plays due to our deliberate offensive pace. They are therefore less work out by the end of the game and not getting leaned on by opposing OLs.
Second, our scheme is wildly different. Chavis, Snyder and Deruyter all valued high risk pressure schemes where the ends pushed aggressively upfield and the LBs attacked pre assigned gaps. It generated lots of TFL and sacks but allowed lots of big plays. This year we are playing sound gap assignment football and our LBs are ready then reacting. Watch the Kentucky game and see how good the ends especially played contain on read and passing plays.
Finally, our front 7 consists of 4 seniors, 2 juniors and a sophomore. Experience does matter to some degree.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:43 am to bearkatag15
quote:
Less plays run on defense allow less yards to be racked up on our D. If you look at average yards per rush allowed we aren't even in the top 15. We are #1 in the fewest rushing attempts against per game at 25.14. That's a combination of having a bad pass D and our offense having the best TOP in CFB.
cfbstats.com Rush Defense Rankings
But there’s a lot more to it than just that. From 2013-2017, we gave up an average of 4.7 YPC. This year we’re giving up 3.2. That’s a MASSIVE improvement.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:22 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
How in the hell did this staff finally turn it around with a group of seniors who haven’t gotten it done their entire careers?
Playing 3 good DTs on almost every snap helps
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 10:23 am
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:52 am to NanosTacoRun
I am having a hard time understanding why MSU is favored in this one. Their offense is sooooo bad. They don’t score. I’m not saying we’re world beaters, but we should win this game easily even if it’s close.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 12:04 pm to NanosTacoRun
Also saw a stat that said we have only given up one run over 30 yards. That was to Damien Harris, who had a 35 yard one. We have given up the two jet sweeps, one to Kentucky, and one to Alabama that both went for over 50 yards, but those are considered passes in the stats.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 12:23 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
I’m not saying we’re world beaters, but we should win this game easily even if it’s close.
We haven't won an SEC game by more than 1 score in over 2 years. You have to go back to Sept. 2016 at Auburn to find a conference game we've won "easily"
Posted on 10/22/18 at 2:26 pm to NanosTacoRun
While the stats are quite interesting, what Klarvin points out is spot on. The defense is spending a lot of time on the sidelines watching the offense grind it out. That is making a difference late in the games.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 2:40 pm to NanosTacoRun
quote:
We haven't won an SEC game by more than 1 score in over 2 years. You have to go back to Sept. 2016 at Auburn to find a conference game we've won "easily"
I don't think last year really matters to the oddsmakers when we're night and day different than last year.
We're 3-1 in SEC games. In those 3 wins, we have an average margin of victory of >5.
I think we can all agree the score was a lot closer in all 3 wins than the actual game was. Statistically, if we continue to dominate TOP, yards, not lose the turnover battle, etc. it'll be less and less likely these games stay close.
I think match up wise we'll be able to beat MSU in a low scoring affair. I might try to make a little money on this one if I can find A&M +160ish.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 3:32 pm to NanosTacoRun
quote:
We haven't won an SEC game by more than 1 score in over 2 years. You have to go back to Sept. 2016 at Auburn to find a conference game we've won "easily"
Truth. I will say that if we can finish red zone drives more consistently, though, that problem will fix itself.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 4:31 pm to TbirdSpur2010
Hope in that, is what keeps my 9-3 or 10-2 dreams alive
Posted on 10/22/18 at 4:47 pm to Old Sarge
I'm trying really hard to create a little noise over the MSU game, but it's not easy. They're hard to get up for. I just don't care that much about them.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 4:52 pm to Farmer1906
Are we going to even attempt a Sig bet?
I’m busy preparing for a big meeting and probably wasn’t going to devote any effort’s to messing with the Bulldogs until later in the week
I’m busy preparing for a big meeting and probably wasn’t going to devote any effort’s to messing with the Bulldogs until later in the week
Posted on 10/22/18 at 4:57 pm to Farmer1906
I hate those fricking cowbells
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