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Expectations
Posted on 8/15/16 at 8:32 am
Posted on 8/15/16 at 8:32 am
So I have waffled back and forth a little on what I expect and what we, as a fan base, should expect.
I know many have the mindset of, "Its year 5, we should be winning championships". And I think at the beginning of a hire, that should be the mindset, but you have to adjust based on what has happened.
We return so many players including several key ones. Our DL & WR groups should each be near the top in the nation. We have a SR QB coming in. We are in year 2 of Chavis's D. We fixed(?) the major issues with the coaching staff. Maybe we should be expecting championships? But here comes to sobering part. Based on the Bill Connelly picks from tRant, we are dogs in at least 6 games.
Texas A&M vs UCLA : UCLA (-0.5) (51%)
Alabama vs Texas A&M : Alabama (-17.8) (85%)
LSU vs Texas A&M : LSU (-8.4) (69%)
Auburn vs Texas A&M : Auburn (-3.5) (58%)
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss : Ole Miss (-3.0) (57%)
Texas A&M vs Arkansas : Arkansas (-2.8) (56%)
Texas A&M vs Tennessee : Tennessee (-1.0) (52%)
6 losses would be pretty disastrous unless you're just hoping Sumlin gets canned this year. And there are real reasons to believe we might. Our OL is almost completely new. Knight was average at best at OU. Our LB crew cannot stay healthy. We lost both starting CBs. Our potential star RB transfer seems often injured. And the schedule is brutal in the SECW.
So my question to the Ark, what are you expectations this year? What would have to happen to consider this year a success?
I know many have the mindset of, "Its year 5, we should be winning championships". And I think at the beginning of a hire, that should be the mindset, but you have to adjust based on what has happened.
We return so many players including several key ones. Our DL & WR groups should each be near the top in the nation. We have a SR QB coming in. We are in year 2 of Chavis's D. We fixed(?) the major issues with the coaching staff. Maybe we should be expecting championships? But here comes to sobering part. Based on the Bill Connelly picks from tRant, we are dogs in at least 6 games.
Texas A&M vs UCLA : UCLA (-0.5) (51%)
Alabama vs Texas A&M : Alabama (-17.8) (85%)
LSU vs Texas A&M : LSU (-8.4) (69%)
Auburn vs Texas A&M : Auburn (-3.5) (58%)
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss : Ole Miss (-3.0) (57%)
Texas A&M vs Arkansas : Arkansas (-2.8) (56%)
Texas A&M vs Tennessee : Tennessee (-1.0) (52%)
6 losses would be pretty disastrous unless you're just hoping Sumlin gets canned this year. And there are real reasons to believe we might. Our OL is almost completely new. Knight was average at best at OU. Our LB crew cannot stay healthy. We lost both starting CBs. Our potential star RB transfer seems often injured. And the schedule is brutal in the SECW.
So my question to the Ark, what are you expectations this year? What would have to happen to consider this year a success?
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Posted on 8/15/16 at 8:46 am to Farmer1906
quote:
And I think at the beginning of a hire, that should be the mindset, but you have to adjust based on what has happened
I agree somewhat, but the man in charge is ultimately responsible for what happened. We can't constantly alter expectations because players keep transferring or because a class (2013 cough) is basically empty.
The ultimate goal for us should be to compete for championships, and eventually you're either there or you're not. I don't expect us to be Alabama competing every year, but I think a consistent floor of 8-4 with a 10+ win season competing for the division every 3-4 years is reasonable for what we have put into the program.
To answer your question: This year I think Sumlin needs a minimum of 9-3 to get some positive momentum back and make this season a succes. We need to be above 500 in SEC play again. Realistically, I expect us to go 7-5, maybe 8-4. I think if you're consistently hitting that floor of 8-4 without positive momentum upward, it's time to move on. I hope I am wrong because I do like some of our staff and don't want to have to start from scratch again with our program
This post was edited on 8/15/16 at 10:48 am
Posted on 8/15/16 at 8:49 am to Farmer1906
I expect us to beat Ucla, ole miss, auburn, and Arkansas
We have the defense and team to do this
I expect us to compete against Tennessee
Texas A&M vs UCLA : UCLA (-0.5) (51%)
Alabama vs Texas A&M : Alabama (-17.8) (85%)
LSU vs Texas A&M : LSU (-8.4) (69%)
Auburn vs Texas A&M : Auburn (-3.5) (58%)
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss : Ole Miss (-3.0) (57%)
Texas A&M vs Arkansas : Arkansas (-2.8) (56%)
Texas A&M vs Tennessee : Tennessee (-1.0) (52%)
We have the defense and team to do this
I expect us to compete against Tennessee
Texas A&M vs UCLA : UCLA (-0.5) (51%)
Alabama vs Texas A&M : Alabama (-17.8) (85%)
LSU vs Texas A&M : LSU (-8.4) (69%)
Auburn vs Texas A&M : Auburn (-3.5) (58%)
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss : Ole Miss (-3.0) (57%)
Texas A&M vs Arkansas : Arkansas (-2.8) (56%)
Texas A&M vs Tennessee : Tennessee (-1.0) (52%)
Posted on 8/15/16 at 9:09 am to Old Sarge
My expectations for the program program are probably at an all-time low. We need something extremely special to break through, and I don't see this team nor staff providing it. Alabama and LSU's recruiting is just too fricking good to compete against without exceptional coaching. I think we have good coaching, but it's hard to expect anything more than 8-9 wins, and depending on who you ask, even that is a reach.
This post was edited on 8/15/16 at 9:10 am
Posted on 8/15/16 at 9:39 am to Farmer1906
We're only true dogs vs LSU and Bama (as usual). Preseason uncertainty makes the rest of those basically coinflips.
(I like Bill_C and his stats but especially in preseason there's some false precision there.)
I think if Sumlin can get to 8 wins in the reg season, and avoid another recruiting meltdown, he should be retained. I don't know why anyone who remembers the Fran and Sherman eras would be turning up their nose at an 8-win floor in a tougher conference. And we know the ceiling is substantially higher.
(I like Bill_C and his stats but especially in preseason there's some false precision there.)
I think if Sumlin can get to 8 wins in the reg season, and avoid another recruiting meltdown, he should be retained. I don't know why anyone who remembers the Fran and Sherman eras would be turning up their nose at an 8-win floor in a tougher conference. And we know the ceiling is substantially higher.
This post was edited on 8/15/16 at 9:42 am
Posted on 8/15/16 at 10:00 am to Farmer1906
quote:
Texas A&M vs UCLA : UCLA (-0.5) (51%)
Alabama vs Texas A&M : Alabama (-17.8) (85%)
LSU vs Texas A&M : LSU (-8.4) (69%)
Auburn vs Texas A&M : Auburn (-3.5) (58%)
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss : Ole Miss (-3.0) (57%)
Texas A&M vs Arkansas : Arkansas (-2.8) (56%)
Texas A&M vs Tennessee : Tennessee (-1.0) (52%)
Posted on 8/15/16 at 10:41 am to Farmer1906
None. Imma enjoy myself this year 
Posted on 8/15/16 at 10:50 am to Iosh
quote:
I think if Sumlin can get to 8 wins in the reg season, and avoid another recruiting meltdown, he should be retained. I don't know why anyone who remembers the Fran and Sherman eras would be turning up their nose at an 8-win floor in a tougher conference.
I hear you, but at what point do we need to hit a higher mark again? Say we go 8-4 this year- we stand to lose a ton before next season. Are we good with just making a bowl in 2017? Is 2018 the year we target for a next step? Because at some point we have to take it
Posted on 8/15/16 at 10:51 am to Farmer1906
successful season: 9 reg season wins and win bowl game to get to ten
meh to poor season: 8 wins or less, depending on how those games are lost
my prediction: 6-6 (or 7-5 if we can win 3 of our first 4)
if we start the season 1-3 look out, it could get really ugly with the possibility of the team quitting on sumlin. now i don't think we start 1-3, i think we will start out at 2-2.
i just don't see this being a really good year, and i'm still not sure if we should fire sumlin if we go 6-6 considering the teams we might be up against looking for a new head coach. i want sumlin gone, but not at the cost of ending up with our 3rd or 4th choice coach. if the new ad knows who he wants and can get him i say pull the trigger (even if it's a decent 8-9 win season), if not then staying with sumlin for another year might be the smarter move.
meh to poor season: 8 wins or less, depending on how those games are lost
my prediction: 6-6 (or 7-5 if we can win 3 of our first 4)
if we start the season 1-3 look out, it could get really ugly with the possibility of the team quitting on sumlin. now i don't think we start 1-3, i think we will start out at 2-2.
i just don't see this being a really good year, and i'm still not sure if we should fire sumlin if we go 6-6 considering the teams we might be up against looking for a new head coach. i want sumlin gone, but not at the cost of ending up with our 3rd or 4th choice coach. if the new ad knows who he wants and can get him i say pull the trigger (even if it's a decent 8-9 win season), if not then staying with sumlin for another year might be the smarter move.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 11:36 am to PhilipMarlowe
Posted on 8/15/16 at 11:54 am to Old Sarge
agreed.
T Knight, the o-line and our linebackers. Those are the three keys that will determine our season, and maybe kicking too. That's obviously not a bold statement though, considering those are the spots that make up half of the team.
T Knight, the o-line and our linebackers. Those are the three keys that will determine our season, and maybe kicking too. That's obviously not a bold statement though, considering those are the spots that make up half of the team.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 11:57 am to Old Sarge
Disclaimer: I haven't watched any practices and do not know anybody who personally has.
I think we will be better on offense and defense, but take a step back in the kicking game on special teams. How much different we will be in these areas is total speculation at this point.
The players seem to be confident in the team and coaches, which is a good thing.
I think 9 regular season wins is an attainable goal. Sure, the team has some question marks at some spots. But so does every other team in our division.
I just like the roster alot for this year, but maybe I'm overestimating what is there. Plenty of weapons on offense. I'm somewhat concerned about the OL, but I have confidence in Turner there to put a competent unit out on the field. I think the LBs will be better and we will generate a strong pass rush.
Alot comes down to how you feel about Knight. If you think he can direct Mazzone's offense, we will be fine. If you think he's gonna turn the ball over, not get us into the correct play at the line, etc., then there is reason for pessimism. I'm in the camp that he will be a competent game manager, not trying to win the game on his own. I think that is what we need to get to 9.
One thing is for sure. We'll know pretty early in the season what this team is all about. UCLA will have fine athletes. If we win and look like we know what we are doing on offense and defense, I'll feel good about 9. If we lose that one, we are probably more like 7 wins.
I think we will be better on offense and defense, but take a step back in the kicking game on special teams. How much different we will be in these areas is total speculation at this point.
The players seem to be confident in the team and coaches, which is a good thing.
I think 9 regular season wins is an attainable goal. Sure, the team has some question marks at some spots. But so does every other team in our division.
I just like the roster alot for this year, but maybe I'm overestimating what is there. Plenty of weapons on offense. I'm somewhat concerned about the OL, but I have confidence in Turner there to put a competent unit out on the field. I think the LBs will be better and we will generate a strong pass rush.
Alot comes down to how you feel about Knight. If you think he can direct Mazzone's offense, we will be fine. If you think he's gonna turn the ball over, not get us into the correct play at the line, etc., then there is reason for pessimism. I'm in the camp that he will be a competent game manager, not trying to win the game on his own. I think that is what we need to get to 9.
One thing is for sure. We'll know pretty early in the season what this team is all about. UCLA will have fine athletes. If we win and look like we know what we are doing on offense and defense, I'll feel good about 9. If we lose that one, we are probably more like 7 wins.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 11:57 am to PhilipMarlowe
I disagree, knight needs to be great, if he is all will be ok, if he isn't...
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:10 pm to Old Sarge
I guess we should get specific on what is 'great.'
If Knight is 22 for 30, 275 yards, no INTs and two touchdowns. Then I consider that being just what the doctor ordered. I will take this and call it a solid performance from that position.
If by "great," we are looking for Knight to throw for 30 out of 40, 360 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs. Then I don't think we are gonna get that very often. You know, some really big numbers, week in and out. I don't think Knight is Manziel.
I think we will see the former, not the latter, if for no other reason than Mazzone's public comments indicate that he intends to spread out the defense and run the ball plenty with our RBs.
If Knight is 22 for 30, 275 yards, no INTs and two touchdowns. Then I consider that being just what the doctor ordered. I will take this and call it a solid performance from that position.
If by "great," we are looking for Knight to throw for 30 out of 40, 360 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs. Then I don't think we are gonna get that very often. You know, some really big numbers, week in and out. I don't think Knight is Manziel.
I think we will see the former, not the latter, if for no other reason than Mazzone's public comments indicate that he intends to spread out the defense and run the ball plenty with our RBs.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:24 pm to Farmer1906
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:27 pm to PikeBishop
quote:
If Knight is 22 for 30, 275 yards, no INTs and two touchdowns. Then I consider that being just what the doctor ordered. I will take this and call it a solid performance from that position.
That's 73% completion, 9.2 YPA. Knight's career numbers are 57% and 7.0 YPA. He also averages a INT every 25 throws.
If he puts up the numbers you propose, that would be much more than solid.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:32 pm to Iosh
quote:
I think if Sumlin can get to 8 wins in the reg season, and avoid another recruiting meltdown, he should be retained. I don't know why anyone who remembers the Fran and Sherman eras would be turning up their nose at an 8-win floor in a tougher conference. And we know the ceiling is substantially higher.
Because this isn't a "hit the floor" year. Whatever struggles we are facing this year are nothing compared to what we are facing say next year. This year we have:
-our most talented team in decades including a top 5 in draft DE
-a senior QB who has some experience and has beat Bama (showing his ceiling)
-we get Tenn, Ole Miss, and LSU at home (not that that means much under Sumlin)
My beef with saying 8 wins is ok is this is the EXACT kind of year we should be getting ten wins. Next year seven or eight is fine, but this year we need to hit a peak to prove to this fanbase Sumlin can do it without Johnny.
I believe there are a few coaches in the game who would win ten games with this team. If Sumlin isn't one of them because he mismanages our advantages he is done for even if we don't fire him.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:33 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:bingo
Because this isn't a "hit the floor" year. Whatever struggles we are facing this year are nothing compared to what we are facing say next year. This year we have:
-our most talented team in decades including a top 5 in draft DE
-a senior QB who has some experience and has beat Bama (showing his ceiling)
-we get Tenn, Ole Miss, and LSU at home (not that that means much under Sumlin)
My beef with saying 8 wins is ok is this is the EXACT kind of year we should be getting ten wins. Next year seven or eight is fine, but this year we need to hit a peak to prove to this fanbase Sumlin can do it without Johnny.
I believe there are a few coaches in the game who would win ten games with this team. If Sumlin isn't one of them because he mismanages our advantages he is done for even if we don't fire him.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 12:38 pm to Old Sarge
Knight is not a great QB. He won't be this year. A realistic game avg would be something like...
248 YARDS
19-32
2-3 TDs
0-1 INTs
8 RUSHES
40 YARDS
248 YARDS
19-32
2-3 TDs
0-1 INTs
8 RUSHES
40 YARDS
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