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BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2029 posts

Top Heavy SEC
According to ESPN FPI, here is the gap between the #1 team in each conference and the #4 team in each conference:

SEC: Gap between #1 Alabama (31.7) and #4 Miss St (11.7) = 20 points
BIG 10: Gap between #1 Ohio St. (28.1) and #4 Michigan (13.7) = 14.4 points
BIG 12: Gap between #1 Oklahoma (25.5) and #4 Texas (11.3) = 14.2 points
ACC: Gap between #1 Clemson (24.9) and #4 NC State (12.9) = 12.0 points
PAC 12: Gap between #1 Washington (22.9) and #4 Oregon (14.8) = 8.1 points

That gap between the #1 and #4 teams in the SEC is gigantic.

Also, its interesting that if you look at all five Power leagues, the largest gaps are almost always between the #1 and #2 teams.... or its between teams that are at the very bottom of the league.

Here are the biggest gaps between consecutively ranked teams in all five leagues:

13.0 points = Gap between #9 Baylor and #10 Kansas in the Big 12

11.6 points = Gap between #1 Alabama and #2 Auburn in the SEC

10.9 points = Gap between #11 Cal and #12 Oregon St. in the PAC 12

7.7 points = Gap between #3 Georgia and #4 Miss St in the SEC

7.1 points = Gap between #1 Clemson and #2 Florida State in the ACC

The five largest gaps.... and all gaps of a touchdown or more are between the #1 and #2 teams in a league, or they are between the worst team and the next-to-worst team in a league.... with one exception: The gap between #3 and #4 in the SEC.

The SEC is completely top-heavy this year with Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia clearly being the three best teams... at least as of now. We are lining up for quite a finish in the league with a decent shot of all 3 Top SEC teams playing each other during November and December.


CapstoneGrad06
Alabama Fan
Little Rock, Arkansas
Member since Nov 2008
55172 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
College football as a whole is garbage, outside of the Big Ten, if those are the #4 teams in the respective leagues.


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AUCE05
Atlanta Braves Fan
Member since Dec 2009
22330 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
I have been trying to play out a situation where all there teams make the playoffs. AU wins out. They are in. UA would have one loss, they would more than likely be in. If UGA had two L's, but both to AU, wonder if they could make it.


TeddyWestside
Georgia Fan
Athens, GA
Member since Jul 2017
143 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:

7.7 points = Gap between #3 Georgia and #4 Miss St in the SEC


Well, we know this is BS

Edit: I guess the idea is that UGA outperformed their average level of play by 20.3 points when they played MSU. I don't think that is the case, though
This post was edited on 10/6 at 1:20 pm


Old Sarge
Missouri Fan
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
36115 posts

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161
GameCocky88
South Carolina Fan
Columbia,SC
Member since Dec 2015
3493 posts
 Online 

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:

Well, we know this is BS

Edit: I guess the idea is that UGA outperformed their average level of play by 20.3 points when they played MSU. I don't think that is the case, though



The thing that is the most bs about it is thinking that State is #4 in the SEC.


UAtide11
Alabama Fan
Member since Apr 2014
1850 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
Make no mistake, the SEC has always been top heavy. It's just that the middle-ish tier is usually pretty solid. This year, and arguably last, that hasn't been the case.

It usually goes contenders, upper middle, lower middle, doormats. This year it is contender, a few good upper middle, trash. It's football so pretty much any team *could* win any game, but the bottom 2/3 of the league is just not particularly good.
This post was edited on 10/6 at 1:25 pm


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11
Gatorbait2008
Florida Fan
Member since Aug 2015
4771 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
God I can't wait to beat little brother Georgia again this year.


agrunner
Texas A&M Fan
Flower Mound
Member since Dec 2012
2825 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
So you're saying the SEC is curvy?


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20
fibonaccisquared
Georgia Fan
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
7873 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:

I have been trying to play out a situation where all there teams make the playoffs. AU wins out. They are in. UA would have one loss, they would more than likely be in. If UGA had two L's, but both to AU, wonder if they could make it.


No scenario where all 3 go. At. All.

Only chance for 2 would likely be if Bama somehow misses SECCG... neither UGA nor Auburn would be given the benefit of the doubt over another conference winner with the same number of losses. Assuming UGA/Auburn win out up until that matchup (and afterwards), if Auburn were to win, then Auburn beat Bama, you'd have three 1 loss teams with UGA and Auburn going to the SECCG. The winner of that game goes... if Bama is somehow left out of the CG, then they become the at large candidate with the highest likelihood of jumping over any bad looking conference champions from elsewhere...

Of course, style of play in those matchups will matter... blowouts can hurt, tight games give more credit to the losing team... etc. But looking at it that way, it's the only chance I see for 2 SEC teams, and it's still a slim possibility.


SouthOfHere
Mississippi St. Fan
Pascagoula, Ms
Member since Feb 2013
1767 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:


The thing that is the most bs about it is thinking that State is #4 in the SEC.





Except no one else could beat them out.


skrayper
Alabama Fan
Member since Nov 2012
9579 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:

That gap between the #1 and #4 teams in the SEC is gigantic.


True, but part of that is just how insanely high Alabama is in that metric. The #2 team is 3.6 behind Bama, and the #3 team is 6.2 behind Bama. Put Alabama in the Big 12 in place of Oklahoma, for example, and there's a bigger gap while the SEC drops to 13.8 points.

Put Alabama in place of any of the other #1 teams from any conference, and that gap will then be the largest gap. Trade OSU for Alabama and the two conferences are close - any other trade, and it's not really close then either.



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10
JustGetItRight
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2012
9261 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:

Except no one else could beat them out.


Mississippi State has played three conference games.

They've beaten LSU, who could well finish last in the west and they've been crushed like an empty Colt 45 can by Auburn and Georgia.

They may well be the 4th best team in the conference, but one can just as easily envision them losing their next 4 SEC games.


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mckibaj
Auburn Fan
Member since Nov 2010
4076 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:

The thing that is the most bs about it is thinking that State is #4 in the SEC.


Yeah, should be Florida. They're the 4th team if you look at polls.
This post was edited on 10/6 at 3:40 pm


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11
Sid E Walker
Alabama Fan
The Republic of Gump
Member since Nov 2013
11724 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
Depending on the outcome of the FSU-Miami game tomorrow, I would argue that NC State is the second best team in the ACC.


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BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2029 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
quote:

No scenario where all 3 go. At. All.


It's very unlikely... probably impossible. But technically it *could* happen.

Here's what would have to happen:

*Alabama would have to go 11-1 with the loss being to Auburn.

*Auburn would have to go 10-2, losing to Georgia (along with the current loss to Clemson)... but then turn around and upon beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl, also beat Georgia in the rematch in Atlanta.

*Georgia would have to go 12-0 in the regular season, but lose to Auburn in Atlanta.

This would produce the following resumes in the SEC:

1. Auburn: 11-2 SEC Champions, wins over both Georgia and Alabama... but losses to Georgia and CLemson

2. Georgia: 12-1, win over Auburn in Auburn

3. Alabama: 11-1, only loss at Auburn


In addition, this would have to happen nationally:

1. Clemson would have to win out and sit at 13-0
2. No other conference could produce and undefeated Champion.... everyone else would have to have at least one loss.
3. Ohio State would need a second loss somewhere... but would also need to win the BIG TEN.
4. Someone other than Oklahoma would need to win the BIG 12... most likely TCU.
5. Notre Dame needs to run the table and finish 11-1

If all of this happens, this is how it would shake out:

PLAYOFF PECKING ORDER:
1. Clemson: 13-0. ACC Champions. Win over Auburn
2. Auburn: 11-2. SEC Champions. Losses to Clemson and Georgia, but wins over Alabama and Georgia
3. Georgia: 12-1. Two road wins over Auburn and Notre Dame, but also a loss to Auburn.
4. Alabama: 11-1. Beat up everyone they played, but lost to Auburn in Auburn

---------------

5. Notre Dame: 11-1 Loss at home to Georgia. Biggest win is USC in South Bend
6. TCU: 11-1. BIG 12 Champions. Wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State... but hypothetical loss to Texas
7. Oklahoma: 10-2. Win over Ohio State. But losses to TCU and Oklahoma State.
8. Ohio State: 11-2. BIG 10 Champions. Losses to Oklahoma and Michigan... Wins over Penn State and Wisconsin (in BIG 10 CG)
9. Penn State: 11-1. Loss to Ohio State. Win over Michigan
10. USC: 11-2. PAC 12 Champs. Losses to Notre Dame and Washington State. Win over Washington in PAC 12 Title Game
11. Oklahoma State: 10-2. Win over Oklahoma; but losses to TCU and Kansas State
11. Washington: 12-1. Loss to USC. No big wins
12. Michigan: 10-2. Losses to Penn State and one random (like Maryland or Indiana). Wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin
13. Wisconsin: 11-2. Losses to Michigan and Ohio State, but zero wins over ranked teams
14. Washington State: 10-2. Win over USC, but losses to Oregon and Washington.

At this point, the real argument would be Bama vs. Notre Dame. They'd have the same record... each with a loss to Georgia or Auburn. But Bama's would have been in Auburn while Notre Dame's would have been at home in South Bend. THe fact that they are Alabama and they have destroyed everyone would give Bama the 4th place nod.
This post was edited on 10/6 at 5:14 pm


dcbl
USA Fan
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
11592 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
In this scenario, ND or TCU is in

one of UGA or Bama makes it, probably UGA


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Gatorcountry0131
Florida Fan
Member since Sep 2016
7 posts

re: Top Heavy SEC
Lol right! Not all of them, but most UGA fans I know have that game as a guaranteed W! I get why there confident...they are looking good! But.........3 in a row! Go Gators!!!


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