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re: SEC Basketball : NET & KenPom Rankings (2-13-20)
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:33 am to Irons Puppet
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:33 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
What is the average spread of a CBB Game? You rarely see double digit spread like you do in Football, so it will always make Vegas look smart. Same with KenPom.
12-12 teams generally don't generally have spreads within 4 points of 22-2 teams
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Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:33 am to SummerOfGeorge
SOG- you're using KenPom but my complaint is about the discrepancy in the NET.... which should look at wins/losses more so as where KenPom does not.
Alabama has played 9 Top 50 NET opponents and is 2-7 in those games.
Tennessee has played 10 Top 50 NET opponents and is 3-7 in those games.
Alabama has 4 losses to teams outside the NET Top 50.
Tenenssee has jsut 3 losses to teams outside the NET Top 50.
Again, I don't understand why the large gap in the NET. I know margin of victory is a component, but its not the main component like it is in KenPom. There shouldn't be as large of a gap between Bama and Tennessee in the NET. Not when their overall resumes are very, very comparable.
Alabama has played 9 Top 50 NET opponents and is 2-7 in those games.
Tennessee has played 10 Top 50 NET opponents and is 3-7 in those games.
Alabama has 4 losses to teams outside the NET Top 50.
Tenenssee has jsut 3 losses to teams outside the NET Top 50.
Again, I don't understand why the large gap in the NET. I know margin of victory is a component, but its not the main component like it is in KenPom. There shouldn't be as large of a gap between Bama and Tennessee in the NET. Not when their overall resumes are very, very comparable.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:34 am to BHMKyle
quote:
There shouldn't be as large of a gap between Bama and Tennessee in the NET. Not when their overall resumes are very, very comparable.
I don't disagree with you, I'm just attempting to explain what it might be. And KenPom does matter because one of the factors in it is efficiencies : Alabama is #48 in KenPom, Tennessee is #58. Another factor is that Tennessee has 5 home losses (which are penalized more) compared to Alabama having 3 home losses.
I would have expected Tennessee to be more in the mid-lower 50s at this point.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:36 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:35 am to rockiee
quote:
I'd love for anyone to go look at the projected score for a Friday slate of games the Monday before and tell me how bad of a system Kenpom is
Same could be said for RealtimeRPI's predictor over the years, and we all know how much Kenpom disciples loathe the RPI.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:35 am to boXerrumble
It is true. Legitimately no elite teams this year. Tourney will be absolutely crazy
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:35 am to volfan30
quote:
So you think Auburn's success so far this season is more attributable to officiating than the players on the roster?
The officials have a say-so in every game. Do you not watch? bball, at any level, is the easiest for the ref's to manipulate.
quote:
Wouldn't affect much. Obviously it depends how Auburn's opponents play this week, too.
Auburn beat LSU and dropped. Auburn beat bama and dropped.
Auburn is behind a team that is 12-11. I have yet to see any explanation for that. Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 6. 1 was by 6 and the other 3 were by 8. They didn't lose as bad as kenpom predicted they would?
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:36 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
What is the average spread of a CBB Game? You rarely see double digit spread like you do in Football, so it will always make Vegas look smart. Same with KenPom.
This is due to how closely grouped the teams are this year. Last year Tennessee played only one SEC game prior to Feb. 16 as less than a 10 point favorite.
There is less than a 10 point (per 100 possession) difference between 15 and 75 at KenPom this year.
Last year the gap between just #10 and #30 was 10.
The wide gap between the haves and have nots played out in the NCAA Tourney last year with the top 14 KenPom teams all making the Sweet 16. This year there is virtually no difference between many of the teams grouped between 10 and 40. Florida is #40 and would be favored against #13 Texas Tech at home.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:38 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
12-12 teams generally don't generally have spreads within 4 points of 22-2 teams
In the better leagues they do. There is true parity in CBB, especially this year. Unlike most of the P5 Football teams.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:39 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
Auburn is behind a team that is 12-11. I have yet to see any explanation for that. Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 6. 1 was by 6 and the other 3 were by 8. They didn't lose as bad as kenpom predicted they would?
Well, first, I think the Big Ten is pretty clearly being massively overrated in KenPom for various reasons.
However, the argument would be that Minnesota has the following Top 40 wins : #11 Penn St, @ #12 Ohio State, #12 Ohio State, #21 Michigan, #31 Wisconsin
Auburn has the following Top 40 wins : #27 Kentucky, #34 LSU
So Minnesota, per KenPom, has 4 wins better than Auburn's best win and 5 Top 40 wins compard to 2 for Auburn. On top of that, Minnesota has 11 losses : 9 of them are to teams in the Top 40.
So, the argument would be, Minnesota has faced about 4x as many difficult challenges as Auburn, and if Auburn played Minnesota's schedule they'd have very similar results.
Do I BELIEVE that? No. I think the B10 is overvalued on KenPom this year and that leads to circular inflation of their teams. But that is why.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:41 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Minnesota has 11 losses : 9 of them are to teams in the Top 40.
Only 2 losses at home, Only 3 losses are by >10 pts too.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:42 am to jsmoove
quote:
Same could be said for RealtimeRPI's predictor over the years, and we all know how much Kenpom disciples loathe the RPI.
Eh, I haven't paid as much attention to that as long but seriously doubt its as accurate on the whole.
That being said, Kempom serves its purpose. It should never be a stand alone tool used to seed teams come tournament time. It is fairly foolish to dismiss what Kenpom specializes in though.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
Our first game in the tourney will likely be against a 13 or 14 seed. We beat several teams around that level during our nonconf. portion.
Our second game will likely be against a 5 or a 6 seed. So an LSU, Oregon, Marquette type team. I like us again because they aren't good enough to get past our "know how" to win.
Of course that could change in the next game against a 2 or a 1, particularly if that ended up being Gonzaga or Baylor imo...
Basically my word salad is just showing 1. It's a weird year with very few scary good teams 2. We aren't efficient but our sheer belief we are supposed to win is helping us win games 3. Unless you are just too good for us (which not many teams are, imo) to truly compete and battle with, you will have a hard time beating us at a neutral site.
All of these factors give me a weird, abstract confidence in this team.
Our second game will likely be against a 5 or a 6 seed. So an LSU, Oregon, Marquette type team. I like us again because they aren't good enough to get past our "know how" to win.
Of course that could change in the next game against a 2 or a 1, particularly if that ended up being Gonzaga or Baylor imo...
Basically my word salad is just showing 1. It's a weird year with very few scary good teams 2. We aren't efficient but our sheer belief we are supposed to win is helping us win games 3. Unless you are just too good for us (which not many teams are, imo) to truly compete and battle with, you will have a hard time beating us at a neutral site.
All of these factors give me a weird, abstract confidence in this team.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I don't disagree with you, I'm just attempting to explain what it might be. And KenPom does matter because one of the factors in it is efficiencies : Alabama is #48 in KenPom, Tennessee is #58. Another factor is that Tennessee has 5 home losses (which are penalized more) compared to Alabama having 3 home losses.
I would have expected Tennessee to be more in the mid-lower 50s at this point.
Yeah. I don't have a problem with KenPom. KenPom is what it is and its open about being a predictive model rather than ranking resumes.
My issue is that NET is trying to rank resumes (with margin of victory being one factor), but when you look at actual resumes you have to split hairs to find much difference between Tennessee and Alabama. I just don't get how one team can be #39 and the other #63. Makes no sense to me.
I also just have a problem in general when the NCAA makes a major overhaul to a system but hides the formula from the general public. There is obviously a quantitative NET number for each team but that is hidden from the general public. They tell us the factors they use, but they don't tell us the actual formula.
I'm a big proponent of openness and full clarity and we're not getting that from the NCAA with the NET rankings.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:43 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
kenpom punishes 22-2 Auburn for winning close games........figuring out a way to win. Being clutch.
At the very least, the model needs to be adjusted to give more weight in wins vs. "luck" factor.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:45 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:44 am to volfan30
quote:Luck rating could arguably just as accurately be labeled kenpom flaw rating. It's simply a measure of teams that defy the kenpom expectations the greatest.
FWIW, Auburn holds the highest KenPom Luck rating since 2012-13 Montana.
FWIW, I like the kenpom system and have always seen the value of it. I think it is producing some strange results this season with respect to the Big10. Is that a reflection of a flaw? I don't know.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:45 am to auburnnyc94
quote:
Basically my word salad is just showing 1. It's a weird year with very few scary good teams 2. We aren't efficient but our sheer belief we are supposed to win is helping us win games 3. Unless you are just too good for us (which not many teams are, imo) to truly compete and battle with, you will have a hard time beating us at a neutral site.
All of these factors give me a weird, abstract confidence in this team.
Absolutely - I totally agree. There is a large glob of teams that are very similar and Auburn possesses a trait that is unique among those teams.
I think Auburn clearly would struggle with some of the elite teams, like you said, but there aren't really very many elite teams. And there aren't a lot of teams who are experienced and confident like Auburn is down the stretch. That is a huge plus for Auburn in a tournament setting compared to a lot of teams that are "in front of them" in KenPom by 2-3 points on a neutral. I mean you have to get to the Top 5 to find a team that is more than ~ 6 points "better" than Auburn.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:49 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Do I BELIEVE that? No. I think the B10 is overvalued on KenPom this year and that leads to circular inflation of their teams. But that is why.
Right, no one is saying Kenpom is perfect in every comparison. The idea is on a whole scale with every 353 teams in D1.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:47 am to BHMKyle
quote:
I also just have a problem in general when the NCAA makes a major overhaul to a system but hides the formula from the general public. There is obviously a quantitative NET number for each team but that is hidden from the general public. They tell us the factors they use, but they don't tell us the actual formula.
100% agree - there is zero reason not to give out the formula and what inputs are being used
I know what they wanted to do - they gave out a listing of all the inputs and components but not the weight given or the formula because they wanted to give an idea but they didn't want whining and complaining about how much each thing is weighted. And I kind of get that, but in the end the "secret formula" thing is a much bigger issue than a few nerds complaining that efficiencies aren't counted enough.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:48 am to auburnnyc94
quote:
Our first game in the tourney will likely be against a 13 or 14 seed. We beat several teams around that level during our nonconf. portion.
Our second game will likely be against a 5 or a 6 seed. So an LSU, Oregon, Marquette type team. I like us again because they aren't good enough to get past our "know how" to win.
Of course that could change in the next game against a 2 or a 1, particularly if that ended up being Gonzaga or Baylor imo...
Basically my word salad is just showing 1. It's a weird year with very few scary good teams 2. We aren't efficient but our sheer belief we are supposed to win is helping us win games 3. Unless you are just too good for us (which not many teams are, imo) to truly compete and battle with, you will have a hard time beating us at a neutral site.
All of these factors give me a weird, abstract confidence in this team.
This is fair imo. It is definitely going to be an interesting case study on how much the "know how" you talk about actually comes in to play. I think there's something to it but it's hard to say how much.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:48 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
100% agree - there is zero reason not to give out the formula and what inputs are being used
I know what they wanted to do - they gave out a listing of all the inputs and components but not the weight given or the formula because they wanted to give an idea but they didn't want whining and complaining about how much each thing is weighted. And I kind of get that, but in the end the "secret formula" thing is a much bigger issue than a few nerds complaining that efficiencies aren't counted enough.
And they didn't want coaches attempting to game it.
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