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re: SEC Basketball : NET & KenPom Rankings (2-13-20)
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:37 am to Tigerman97
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:37 am to Tigerman97
quote:
KenPom is just a reminder why stats really don't mean a ton.
Well, it's not supposed to be used really to "rank" teams in a sense of their accomplishments. It's to look at a matchup and say ok how is this going to go?
And honestly, it's been pretty close on Auburn. It expected last nights game to be 6 points. It expects close games with most of the games down the stretch.........but it expects Auburn to win all of them except the road vs Kentucky and a 50/50 toss up at Tennessee.
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Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:39 am to Tigerman97
quote:
KenPom is just a reminder why stats really don't mean a ton.
If you don’t think KenPom is reliable you can make a lot of money gambling on the sport. Every line every night is created using KenPom.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:40 am to volfan30
quote:
Not that mind boggling when you look at Auburn’s efficiency numbers.
frick efficiency numbers.
Like SOG pointed out
Auburn has won every OT game.
Auburn has won every close game.
Auburn's two losses were blowouts on the road.
I grew up playing multiple sports. I played one into adulthood. The goal was to win the game. Being "pretty", win or lose, had no bearing on the goal at hand.
ETA A pretty loss sucks just as bad as a blowout....and neither puts a mark in the W column.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 8:42 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:46 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
Auburn has won every OT game.
Auburn has won every close game.
This is not a sustainable skill. At least it hasn’t proven to be over any length of time in any study I’ve ever seen. There can be reasons why pyth % and actual win % differ but “being good at playing close games against everybody and always winning them” is not one of them. There can be sustained periods where the expected outcomes don’t match the results but things smooth out as more data points are added.
Auburn’s resume is certainly better than their KenPom ranking but he has them right where they should be from a predictive standpoint.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:49 am to volfan30
quote:
This is not a sustainable skill. At least it hasn’t proven to be over any length of time in any study I’ve ever seen.
.... study?
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:50 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
Like SOG pointed out
Auburn has won every OT game.
Auburn has won every close game.
Auburn's two losses were blowouts on the road.
I grew up playing multiple sports. I played one into adulthood. The goal was to win the game. Being "pretty", win or lose, had no bearing on the goal at hand.
ETA A pretty loss sucks just as bad as a blowout....and neither puts a mark in the W column.
But the point is a computer sees all that and considers a team who is 10-0 in tight games to be very lucky and a team hat is maybe 4-8 in same type of games very unlucky. Now certainly there's a component to being able to close out games better, but there's obviously a luck component involved as well. Balancing how you factor in the 2 is the tough part. When 1 team gets to 1 extreme or another you start to think eventually they will have to regress or progress back towards the mean instead of remain a huge outlier.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 8:51 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:52 am to volfan30
quote:I disagree. I think the league is undervalued and will do well in the tournament compared to the league's perceived weakness.
The league sucks badly, even in a very down year for the sport. I would take an even money bet on under 1.5 teams making the second weekend.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 8:56 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:59 am to PearlJam
I like three teams to get to weekend two. Auburn being one of them.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:01 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
39. Alabama (+1)
I mean I get that Bama played a very tough game on the road against a Top 15 opponent, but isn't it odd that they literally keep moving up after each loss. Does #39 seem a bit high for a team that is 13-11?
Bama only has one Q1 win. There are 67 teams with more Q1 wins than they have.
Bama only has five Q1+Q2 wins. There are 53 other teams with more Q1+Q2 wins than they have, and around a dozen others that have the same amount.
Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping Bama's high NET will ultimately help get them and other SEC teams into the Tournament. I just wish the NET rankings would explain a bit more how their formula works.
I mean look at the Alabama-Tennessee comparison:
Q1 Wins:
2- Tennessee
1- Alabama
Q2 Wins:
4- Tennessee
4- Alabama
Q3 Losses:
1- Alabama
1- Tennessee
Overall, The Vols are 14-10 while Alabama is 13-11.... not to mention Tennessee beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
So despite having an extra win (Which was a Q1 win BTW), a head-to-head victory on Bama's home court, and the same number of bad losses, Alabama's NET is #39 and Tennessee's is #63.
Is anyone able to explain this? Again, more clarity from the NCAA is needed IMO.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:02 am to PearlJam
I think one of UK or AU win a couple games. MSU and UF would be capable if they get in.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:03 am to auburnnyc94
quote:Just depends on the match ups. Auburn excels and rebounding and getting to the free throw line. They've done both enough to overcome their offensive and defensive inefficiencies. My concern is refs swallowing the whistle in tournament play and limiting AUs FTA. A high enough seed may be enough to get match ups that get AU to weekend number 2 though.
Auburn being one of them.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:03 am to BHMKyle
You have a weird hard on for Bama Basketball. Our NET is 39 because we have played a tough schedule
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:04 am to volfan30
Yeah UF and UK are the other two I like in March. I'd be shocked if we get a team to the F4 from this league though. Don't think anyone has the combination of guard play + defense unless Maxey/Hagans/Quickley develop some level of consistency down the stretch.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:05 am to PearlJam
I think our main weakness is against teams with good, quick PG's. We don't have anyone who can stay in front of that type of player. See Saben Lee and Kira Lewis.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:08 am to BHMKyle
Alabama is a little high in NET but Tennessee is not better than Alabama. Head to head is pretty meaningless in a 30 game season. Tennessee cannot score the ball in any reliable manner and the defense is average. A team that has not played a particularly challenging schedule and has no wins of significance and several double digit losses to any team with a pulse is about right at 60.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:08 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
But the point is a computer sees all that and considers a team who is 10-0 in tight games to be very lucky and a team hat is maybe 4-8 in same type of games very unlucky. Now certainly there's a component to being able to close out games better, but there's obviously a luck component involved as well. Balancing how you factor in the 2 is the tough part. When 1 team gets to 1 extreme or another you start to think eventually they will have to regress or progress back towards the mean instead of remain a huge outlier.
To explain:
SDSU, Gonzaga, Baylor, Dayton and Auburn have all played between 23-26 games at this point and all have 2 losses or less. This is their performances in 2 possession or less games (6 points one way or other):
SDSU
3-0
12% of games decided by 2 possessions or less
22 wins in 25 games by more than 2 possessions = 88% of games were "Comfortable wins"
Gonzaga
5-0
19% of games decided by 2 possessions or less
20 wins in 26 games by more than 2 possessions = 77% of games were "comfortable wins"
Baylor
5-1
26% of games decided by 2 possessions or less
17 wins in 23 games by more than 2 possessions = 74% of games were "comfortable wins"
Dayton
5-2
29% of games decided by 2 possessions or less
17 wins in 24 games by more than 2 possessions = 71% of games were "comfortable wins"
Auburn
10-0
42% of games decided by 2 possessions or less
12 wins in 24 games by more than 2 possessions = 50% of games were "comfortable wins"
It sees Auburn and goes whoaaaaaaa, wait a second. They are getting a lot luckier than a typical team. Only half their games were comfortable wins but they are 22-2 overall.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 9:09 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:10 am to PearlJam
quote:
Something about the Big10 early season blowouts has done something to skew the projection models
KenPom does not adjust for blowouts. So beating a team by 50 pts is a huge boost to your KenPom ranking.
Big10 regularly runs up the score on scrubs in OOC
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:15 am to BHMKyle
quote:
I mean I get that Bama played a very tough game on the road against a Top 15 opponent, but isn't it odd that they literally keep moving up after each loss. Does #39 seem a bit high for a team that is 13-11?
Bama only has one Q1 win. There are 67 teams with more Q1 wins than they have.
You are missing a pretty key ingredient - the NET distinguishes between the 10 pt demarcation line in all games.
Q1 Games : 1-6
- 1 Q1 Wins >= 10 points
- 0 Q1 Wins < 10 points
- 2 Q1 Losses >= 10 points
- 4 Q1 Losses < 10 points
Q2 Games : 4-4
- 2 Q2 Wins >= 10 points
- 2 Q2 Wins < 10 points
- 1 Q1 Losses > 10 points
- 3 Q1 Losses <= 10 points
Q3-4 Games : 8-1
- 7 Q3-4 Wins >= 10 points
- 1 Q3-4 Wins < 10 points
- 0 Q3-4 Losses >= 10 points
- 1 Q3-4 Losses < 10 points
We've lost a ton of close games and won a bunch of games by 10+ points. We've lost 8 of our 11 games by less than 10 points. We've won 10 of our 13 games by more than 10 points. That shows in the NET.
We are literally the bizarro-Auburn.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 9:17 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:16 am to Sigma
quote:
I don't care how you calculate it, resume, SOR, whatever, there are not 31 better teams than Auburn.
KenPom is showing its flaws this year, IMO.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:22 am to BHMKyle
They are 34th in T Rank. Any efficiency based model is going to find issue with this Auburn team. The underlying numbers don’t look too good. I think they are have a top 10-15 resume but are more like the 25th-30th best team.
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