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re: SEC Basketball : NET & KenPom Rankings (2-13-20)
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:06 am to MrAUTigers
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:06 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
You do realize kenpom had Auburn as a 6 seed just two weeks ago.........in the SEC tourney?
The difference in a 1-seed and a 6-seed 2 weeks ago was something like 1-2 wins or losses. You are talking about the difference in 12-6 and 11-7.
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Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:08 am to BHMKyle
quote:
KenPom is showing its flaws this year, IMO.
Efficiency model in everything but winning.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:09 am to SummerOfGeorge
Actually they underrated us last year.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:10 am to SummerOfGeorge
It is really surprising to me that Kenpom has been around this long and people still don't know what its used for
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:10 am to PearlJam
quote:
I simply don't think kenpom's system accurately accounts for AU this year. Is there a flaw with kenpom, is AU just an anomaly, or is AU really likely to get beat on a neutral court by 30+ other teams.
I mean - I think they could lose on a neutral court to 30 other teams. Some of the B10 teams, I agree, they are inflated. But get past them........
#20 Florida State (+2 pts)
#22 Colorado (+2 pts)
#23 Creighton (+2 pts)
#24 Marquette (
#25 Butler
#26 Oregon
#27 Kentucky
#28 Villanova
There just isn't that much difference between teams this year. Hell, KenPom basically says Auburn would be a 3 pt underdog on a neutral floor against Texas Tech who is ranked #13. We'd call that basically a toss up.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:11 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:10 am to auburnnyc94
quote:
Actually they underrated us last year.
I think they rated you pretty close to accurately for a full body of work - you guys were obviously playing Top 5 ball at the end of the year, though.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:11 am to SummerOfGeorge
Right, but they underrated us as a predictive measure. Which is all that KenPom is.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
How did KenPom have Auburn playing after their first round scare in the NCAAT ?
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:15 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
How did KenPom have Auburn playing after their first round scare in the NCAAT ?
Had AU favored against KU and one possession underdogs against UNC and UK
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:16 am to AUsteriskPride
quote:
Efficiency model in everything but winning.
I have said multiple times I think kenpom is a fraud. Today's rankings show that more than ever.
kenpom punishes 22-2 Auburn for winning close games........figuring out a way to win. Being clutch.
kenpom rewards 12-11 Minnesota.........they obviously have not figured out how to win close games. Not clutch.
He rewards teams for losing games closer than his analytics say they should and he punishes teams for winning by less than he thinks they should. wow.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:17 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
How did KenPom have Auburn playing after their first round scare in the NCAAT ?
Favored vs NMSU
Favored vs Kansas
Not Favored vs UNC (close underdog)
Not Favored vs UK (close underdog)
Not Favored vs UVA (4-5 pt underdog)
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:18 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:18 am to auburnnyc94
quote:
Right, but they underrated us as a predictive measure. Which is all that KenPom is.
Agreed - I do wonder if he has thought about a recency rank.
The biggest flaw, IMHO, is treating games in early December the same as games within the last 6 weeks.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:19 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
I have said multiple times I think kenpom is a fraud. Today's rankings show that more than ever.
kenpom punishes 22-2 Auburn for winning close games........figuring out a way to win. Being clutch.
kenpom rewards 12-11 Minnesota.........they obviously have not figured out how to win close games. Not clutch.
He rewards teams for losing games closer than his analytics say they should and he punishes teams for winning by less than he thinks they should. wow.
Why not bet on the games then if it is so flawed? Every game goes off within a point of the KP projection barring major injury.
AU is only going to be a 5 or so point favorite in the next 2 road games against sub 100 opponents. How much are you going to bet?
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:21 am to volfan30
quote:
Why not bet on the games then if it is so flawed? Every game goes off within a point of the KP projection barring major injury.
AU is only going to be a 5 or so point favorite in the next 2 road games against sub 100 opponents. How much are you going to bet?
It's a good point. KP is always within 1-2 point of the lines so the lines will probably be somewhere around.........
Missouri v Auburn (-5)
Georgia v Auburn (-4)
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
Saw this tweet come across my timeline this morning.
quote:
Considering a deeper investigation of all 10 wins this weekend now. FWIW, Auburn holds the highest KenPom Luck rating since 2012-13 Montana. (Don't Google how Montana did in their NCAAT game please.)
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:24 am to volfan30
quote:
Why not bet on the games then if it is so flawed?
Betting on bball games is for suckers. The ref's have more of an affect on the outcome of games than the players do.
quote:
AU is only going to be a 5 or so point favorite in the next 2 road games against sub 100 opponents.
and if they win both games by three, they will be 24-2. How far do you think they will fall in kenpom?
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:24 am to volfan30
quote:
Why not bet on the games then if it is so flawed?
The people who are criticizing kempom haven't looked deep enough or are trying to use the system for something it wasn't intended as
I'd love for anyone to go look at the projected score for a Friday slate of games the Monday before and tell me how bad of a system Kenpom is
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:26 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
The ref's have more of an affect on the outcome of games than the players do.
So you think Auburn's success so far this season is more attributable to officiating than the players on the roster?
quote:
and if they win both games by three, they will be 24-2. How far do you think they will fall in kenpom?
Wouldn't impact much. Obviously it depends how Auburn's opponents play this week, too.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:27 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:27 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
and if they win both games by three, they will be 24-2. How far do you think they will fall in kenpom?
I mean they'll probably fall 1-2 spots
Auburn has played 6 road games all season, which is kind of insane in mid-February
- 1 pt win @ #169 South Alabama
- 12 pt win @ #49 Mississippi St (they lost 4 of 5 during this stretch)
- 19 pt loss @ #48 Alabama
- 22 pt loss @ #40 Florida
- 1 pt win @ #87 Ole Miss
- 3 pt win @ #42 Arkansas (they've lost 6 of 8 during this stretch)
I love watching this Auburn team play - they play their asses off and know how to win. If I was a fan this would be one of my favorite teams.
But teams that win all the close games, even against bad teams, almost never end up doing that as competition gets tougher in tournament play - in any sport with a big sample size. It just is what it is. More likely than not it turns out that the underlying issue is that a team just isn't that good and against good teams you don't get the chance to make big plays late.
That doesn't mean they haven't had a helluva season. And look on the bright side, if they do keep doing it you just get to shite in everybody's face at the end! It's like a triple win win win.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 10:31 am
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:28 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It's a good point. KP is always within 1-2 point of the lines so the lines will probably be somewhere around.........
Missouri v Auburn (-5)
Georgia v Auburn (-4)
What is the average spread of a CBB Game? You rarely see double digit spread like you do in Football, so it will always make Vegas look smart. Same with KenPom.
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