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S&P+ Week 2 picks
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:41 pm
quote:
Week 0/1 results : 23-20-2 vs Spread (53.3%) (26-18-1 Over/Under)
2018 results : 377-344-15 vs Spread (52.2%)
2017 results : 354-343-12 vs Spread (50.8%)
S&P+ Picks - Week 2
#1 Alabama 52 - Arkansas State 17
#2 Clemson 32 - Texas A&M 20
#3 Georgia 36 - #24 South Carolina 23
#7 Auburn 80 - Alabama State 0 (yes, really)
#11 LSU 55 - SE Louisiana 0
#18 Mississippi State 35 - Kansas State 10
#25 Florida 34 - Kentucky 16
Missouri 42 - Wyoming 24
Arkansas 47 - Colorado State 26
Vanderbilt 37 - Nevada 28
Ole Miss 40 - Southern Illinois 0
Tennessee 36 - ETSU 6
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 1:15 pm
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Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:FGus will be up by 3 field goals at half.
#7 Auburn 80 - Alabama State 0 (yes, really)
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Looks good for my betting picks 
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Hot takes ... all of'em.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Clemson - A&M matches the line. I think we cover and keep it to single digits.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:49 pm to SummerOfGeorge
That’s a very reasonable uga sc score.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#1 Alabama 52 - Arkansas State 17
Probably won't be this close.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Not SEC, but I dont' see Stanford winning when Bryce Love only had 29 yards in 18 attempts against San Diego State. (14 of those yards are from 1 play.)
quote:
No. 10 Stanford (-5.5) 32, No. 17 USC 24
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
2018 results : 377-344-15 vs Spread (51%) 2017 results : 354-343-12 vs Spread (51%)
Might be time for Bill to tweak the ole formula.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:11 pm to lowspark12
quote:
Might be time for Bill to tweak the ole formula.
Beating the spread over 1,000 games is pretty solid. His %'s line up with the overall results too.
No system is perfect, but his is pretty solid for getting an idea of a game. Much better than FPI IMHO.
This early in the season though it's a crapshoot.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:11 pm to mckibaj
quote:
dont' see Stanford winning when Bryce Love only had 29 yards in 18 attempts against San Diego State. (14 of those yards are from 1 play.)
You’re way overestimating the competence of the SC coaching staff.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:13 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I know we aren't in the SEC, but we do have a lot of guys post here.
Humor us!
Mizzou 42 Wyoming 24
Humor us!
Mizzou 42 Wyoming 24
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Beating the spread over 1,000 games is pretty solid. His %'s line up with the overall results too.
yep we do a pool vs the spread, 12-15 games/week over the season and I keep up with everyone's %.
Nobody goes over 55% for the year. Rock bottom is usually around 40%. Rarely does anyone fall outside that if you are picking that many games.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
This early in the season though it's a crapshoot.
quote:
Much better than FPI IMHO.
No doubt.
I like the work Connelly puts out.. probably ththe most compressive statistical analysis of CFB out there.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:17 pm to lowspark12
quote:
I like the work Connelly puts out.. probably ththe most compressive statistical analysis of CFB out there.
Yea, and he is willing to make changes and tweaks. And he's about as anti-hot take as they come. His previews are the best in the business IMHO.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Beating the spread over 1,000 games is pretty solid. His %'s line up with the overall results too.
No system is perfect, but his is pretty solid for getting an idea of a game. Much better than FPI IMHO.
I would like to see what the difference is between the 1st half of the season and the 2nd half. IMO that would be really telling on how good the system is.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:20 pm to rockiee
quote:
I would like to see what the difference is between the 1st half of the season and the 2nd half. IMO that would be really telling on how good the system is.
I think he breaks them out in his weekly pick article towards the end of the year that way.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We are going to dominate KSU. I’ve already taken the line 3 different times at -6.5, -8.5, -10. We played a very dull and shallow game on both sides of the ball in week 1, and still found a way to put up 63 points. Fitz will be back, and KSU honestly will have no idea what to expect.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:22 pm to BobLeeDagger
quote:
We are going to dominate KSU. I’ve already taken the line 3 different times at -6.5, -8.5, -10.
I think so - I feel like this is one of those games where you really want to come out and open up a multi-score lead as quickly as possible. Otherwise, you get stuck in their game and look up and it is 17-14 late in the 4th or something.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I see us opening with a FG, they answer with a TD. Dawgs score two before half (17-7). Then us putting up two more (31-7) then KSU putting up a garbage time TD for a final of (31-14).
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