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re: S&P+ Week 2 picks
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:25 pm to BobLeeDagger
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:25 pm to BobLeeDagger
quote:
I see us opening with a FG, they answer with a TD. Dawgs score two before half (17-7). Then us putting up two more (31-7) then KSU putting up a garbage time TD for a final of (31-14).
If it played out that way it would be an impressive statement from State.
1
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I had a dream last night of this exact scenario. It’s why it’s so detailed lol.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I think so - I feel like this is one of those games where you really want to come out and open up a multi-score lead as quickly as possible. Otherwise, you get stuck in their game and look up and it is 17-14 late in the 4th or something.
Snyder has a great record ATS at home when big underdogs. That being said, I don't think its happening this year.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Week 0/1 results : 23-20-2 vs Spread (53.3%) (26-18-1 Over/Under)
2018 results : 377-344-15 vs Spread (52.2%)
2017 results : 354-343-12 vs Spread (50.8%)
Slightly better predictor than a coin flip.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:31 pm to TidalSurge1
quote:
Slightly > predictor than a coin flip.
There's a reason it's a spread. Anything between 50-55% when you pick every single game is pretty good.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
quote:You can flip a coin and beat the spread 50% of the time. The truth is that you have to win over 55% of the time to come out ahead because of the 10% "juice".
Beating the spread over 1,000 games is pretty solid. His %'s line up with the overall results too.
His system is barely better than flipping a coin.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:42 pm to tattoo
quote:
You can flip a coin and beat the spread 50% of the time. The truth is that you have to win over 55% of the time to come out ahead because of the 10% "juice".
His system is barely better than flipping a coin.
For 1, his system isn't for gambling. It's for ranking teams and getting an idea of how games might play out. His teams with 50-60% winning odds win 55-60% of the time on average, 60-65% 65% on average, etc. It's been pretty consistent that way for a long time.
So, it's much more from a what might this game look like if both teams play to norm point of view than a "found a hot one to bet on this spread is way wrong" point of view. It also doesn't take into effect injuries, which hurts it spread wise later in years.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 2:43 pm
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