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re: S&P+ Offensive and Defensive Ranks through 3 weeks

Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:55 am to
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
73493 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:55 am to
quote:

You think that makes a little difference?


They just avoid discussing that on a regular basis.
Posted by Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
33939 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 9:07 am to
I feel FEI ratings are a more accurate indicator of a team's quality and predictor of national champions. For example, there has been only one national champion with an offensive FEI ranking lower than 11th to win a NC. That was 2015 Alabama which was ranked 19th. When Bama played Clemson last year, Bama's offensive FEI was 11th while Clemson's offensive FEI was ranked 21st. There had never been a team with a worse offense than Clemson to win a NC. What ended up happening? Clemson's offense ends up playing significantly worse than Bama's offense and Bama wins that game going away. Same thing with the Oklahoma-Georgia game. There has been only two teams with a defensive FEI ranked lower than 10th to win a NC. That was 2007 LSU (14th) and 2010 Auburn (35th). Oklahoma's defensive FEI was ranked 53rd. It would have been a tremendous outlier for a defense as bad as Oklahoma's to win a NC. And not surprisingly, Oklahoma's defense ended up costing them that game in the end.
Posted by Old Money
Member since Sep 2012
36363 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 9:11 am to
God damn I hope the offense improves quickly
Posted by lowhound
Effie
Member since Aug 2014
7532 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:01 am to
quote:

Poor cocks, they are never going to beat a&m.


Aggie would know something about beating cocks
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:03 am to
quote:

76. LSU
Yet another example of why Burrow is trash.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Yet another example of why Burrow is trash.


Thank you for your interest in LSU's program. We appreciate your thoughts.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:11 am to
I'm sorry.

It's just incredible to me that the kid has the worst completion % AND the worst yards per attempt yet people think he's good at the position.


There isn't a single metric that says he's a good QB. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68321 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:12 am to
quote:

There isn't a single metric that says he's a good QB. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.



He was near the top of the conference in adjusted completion coming into the Auburn game, oh and he had a wail of a 4th quarter performance when it mattered, too.

I'm not worried about Burrow at all, he's always been an accurate passer through high school and that was one of his strengths at tOSU too. IT's a new offense, with new personnel and an ever changing OL. It will go way up from 46% over the course of the season as things really gel.
This post was edited on 9/18/18 at 10:13 am
Posted by Abe1961
Member since Oct 2014
2413 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:13 am to
Same way a qb that has played high school defenses is thought to be the greatest.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:24 am to
quote:

Same way a qb that has played high school defenses is thought to be the greatest.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:26 am to
Dude he threw 39 passes in 3 years at OSU. How do we know he was accurate?

And you think his % and horrible yards per attempt will just magically increase during conference play?
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
95170 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:27 am to
quote:

He was near the top of the conference in adjusted completion coming into the Auburn game,
No he wasnt

He was 7th, which is exactly average
Posted by Woodreaux
OC California
Member since Jan 2008
2790 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:42 am to
quote:

There isn't a single metric that says he's a good QB.


3 wins, 0 interceptions stick out at me.

I appreciate statistics and quantitative analysis, but I also understand there are limits of what sort of data is being cataloged. Therefore, I recognize that trying to qualify a player strictly by looking at spreadsheets and tableaux (without watching the games) will leave one with a limited perspective.

I'd love gaudier numbers, but I'm happy with overall product he's delivering so far.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68321 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:48 am to
quote:

Dude he threw 39 passes in 3 years at OSU. How do we know he was accurate?



Because he didn't only throw passes in a few actual games, but in practice, in spring games, etc...One of Burrow's biggest strengths, and tOSU fans would all tell you the same, was his accuracy. He had always been an accurate passer out of high school and at his time at tOSU.

quote:

And you think his % and horrible yards per attempt will just magically increase during conference play?



Yeah absolutely, LOL @ thinking it's just going to stay well below 50%. Newsflash - we didn't play 3 crap teams to start the year either. We played 2 of the top defenses in the country.

You're simply overreacting to a 3 game sample size, 2 against top flight defenses and a lot of working around with a new offense.

We play LA Tech, Ole Miss and Florida the next 3 weeks, I would suspect things look a bit better after that than these first 3 weeks.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68321 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:50 am to
quote:

No he wasnt

He was 7th, which is exactly average


Sorry, meant this one:

Passes on target
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
95170 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Newsflash - we didn't play 3 crap teams to start the year either. We played 2 of the top defenses in the country.
Newslflash

He threw for 50% against SELU
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68321 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Newslflash

He threw for 50% against SELU


And after that game he was still >90% on passes on target, so again, not worried about accuracy.

Raw completion % isn't exactly telling the whole story
This post was edited on 9/18/18 at 10:52 am
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:54 am to
quote:

Because he didn't only throw passes in a few actual games, but in practice, in spring games, etc...One of Burrow's biggest strengths, and tOSU fans would all tell you the same, was his accuracy. He had always been an accurate passer out of high school and at his time at tOSU.
Ok ok ok, I believe you my man

quote:

We play LA Tech, Ole Miss and Florida the next 3 weeks, I would suspect things look a bit better after that than these first 3 weeks.
We'll see. It'll be impossibly difficult to NOT improve on 46% and 6.9 ypa.

But something tells me he can do it.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:55 am to
I'd guess that Burrow's "difficulty of completion" % would be among the highest in CFB. It feels like a lot of his throws are boom are bust fades/long throws/etc. And I think that is probably by design at this point, big play chance with little risk and athletic receivers. That would lead to a lower completion %.

He's been a solid game manager who has made some clutch throws so far. Nothing wrong with that. He will probably have to get better and make more plays going forward, but you have to feel good about where you are at this point I'd think. With the run game being pretty average he will have to take it to another level to be able to beat Georgia or Alabama.
This post was edited on 9/18/18 at 10:57 am
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/18/18 at 10:56 am to
quote:

I'd guess that Burrow's "difficulty of completion" % would be among the highest in CFB
Even though his 6.9 ypa is almost dead last in CFB?

ETA: For reference, Jalen's was 8.2 last season. And we know the type of passes HE was throwing.
This post was edited on 9/18/18 at 10:58 am
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