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re: Plot twist: NIL / portal era is fun as hell
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:49 am to deeprig9
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:49 am to deeprig9
quote:
NIL and Portal didn't do that.
Random upsets happen every year in college football, long before NIL and Portal.
Vandy is 5-2 to start the season. The last time Vandy was 5-2 at this point in the season was 1743.
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 1:06 am
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Posted on 10/22/24 at 3:59 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Players are no longer loyal to a particular school or conference, but to who can give them the best NIL deals.
With or without NIL, prospects are still primarily concerned with their own self-interests and what's best for themselves. There is no "loyalty." People are generally only as loyal as their options. Players just have more options today.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 4:20 am to RandySavage
quote:
Couldn't disagree more. The games have been exciting but their ultimate lack of meaning kind of sucks.
Ladies and gentlemen, an Auburn football perspective.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 5:20 am to deeprig9
quote:
Can you give me an example of a team that sucked before NIL+Portal but is now good?
Illinois, Indiana, Syracuse, Miami
Eta
Freaking Vandy
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 5:21 am
Posted on 10/22/24 at 5:23 am to deeprig9
quote:
The fact they are undefeated after 7 games and still can't crack the top ten AP poll should tell you something.
That AP voters and coaches hold onto pre season rankings more tightly than a toddler with a lollipop
Posted on 10/22/24 at 5:54 pm to J2thaROC
quote:
You act like players were not being paid before this.
I do not.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:59 pm to DeathByTossDive225
If you think the NFL is bad, CFB is going to be 100x worse here soon enough. You're going to have 18-24 year old "mercenaries" worried about their "careers" transferring at will. Most will have no allegiance to their teams, just merely who can compensate them the most/set them up best at the next level. Players will begin sitting out midseason very shortly, bc it was a "business decision". NIL is the beginning of the end. You will soon be rooting a team comprised of players you hate
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:04 pm to DeathByTossDive225
The big schools were paying players before.
When they made it legal, more schools could get into the game.
When they made it legal, more schools could get into the game.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:14 pm to DeathByTossDive225
I had thought that NIL would absolutely destroy any chance for us to compete. Never been happier to admit I was wrong. This is turning everything around for us. Are we going to be winning the SEC anytime soon; probably not, but we will be in very game.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:19 pm to deeprig9
Maybe we won’t be ranked at the end of the season. But we will be getting votes. You act like Vandy’s win over Bama was just a one time fluke. We beat VaTeck. Beat Kentucky. Lost to Mizz by 1 bad field in double overtime. So the Bama game wasn’t a random event. We are a much better and stronger team. And it’s because of NIL and transfers.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:25 pm to Tiger2tiga
quote:
Indiana is undefeated and #13.
And their best win is... Nebraska?
I actually only see one team in the top 6 of the 247 talent composite who's lost to a team outside of the top 6.
LINK /
That would be #1 Bama who did it twice (Tennessee is 17th, Vandy is 50th)
#2 in talent UGA lost to #1 Bama
#3 in talent OSU lost to #6 Oregon.
#4 in talent Texas lost to #2 UGA.
#5 in talent Clemson lost to #2 UGA.
Many of the other top talent teams have lost to teams relatively close to them talent wise.
#8 LSU lost to #15 Southern Cal (only a 43 point difference in score... less than the difference between #2 UGA and #4 Texas)
OU at #7 had their worst loss against South Carolina who is only 100 points below them (#21).
A&M at #10 only lost to a more talented team (ND at #9)
Florida at #12 had their worst loss to Tennessee at #17 (36 point difference)
#17 Tennessee lost to #29 Arkansas (79 point difference)
The reality is that the teams with the most talent are largely holding serve unless their opponent is a bit close to them. There are a few exceptions (Bama as noted above, Auburn losing to Cal, ND losing to Northern Illinois and FSU's entire season), but for the most part talent is holding serve at about the same rate it always has. The teams ranked above their talent level (like Ole Miss) are losing to lower ranked teams... but not less talented teams. Ole Miss and UK are only 13 points different in the 247 talent ranking.
I think the larger conference sizes and the concentration of higher talent teams in fewer conferences has led to more of the odd poll results than the transfer portal causing talent discrepancies. Indiana is undefeated but they lucked into a schedule that has just one ranked team on it (OSU). Of the rest of their schedule (both played and to come) their opponents with winning records are 5-2 Nebraska, 4-3 Michigan, 4-3 Washington, 4-3 Michigan State and 4-3 Maryland. That's... pathetic.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:36 pm to DawginSC
Your whole post is both retarded and schizophrenic, but this part is the most incredible
What?
quote:
only a 43 point difference in score
What?
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 8:37 pm
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:45 pm to Smokey Okie
quote:
Vandy is 5-2 to start the season. The last time Vandy was 5-2 at this point in the season was 1743.
While that's true, Vandy also will likely lose 3 of their next 5 games and finish 7-5. The highlight for them was beating Bama... but keep in mind they could have beaten Georgia State and lost to Bama and they'd have the same 5-2 record.
That's still great for Vandy, but they were a 9 win team in James Franklin's last two seasons and finished both in the top 25. And that was well before NIL/Portal football.
Sometimes Vandy does do well at football. Not often, but this isn't a new thing.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:46 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Precisely. And it is solely because it's a 12 team playoff. It has nothing to do with NIL+Portal bringing parity.
No. Look at how there are no undefeated teams in the SEC right now. That’s not typical at all. That has nothing to do with their being 12 teams in the playoffs. Before, when you pretty much had one team in the SEC east and one in the west that was likely going to ho undefeated, if you lost one game, you were pretty much out of the running. In fact, I doubt there will be an undefeated in conference play team this year. As of right now there are only 2 and they play each other this weekend so as of this weekend there will only be one undefeated in conference team.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:51 pm to DeathByTossDive225
quote:
Your whole post is both retarded and schizophrenic, but this part is the most incredible
quote:
only a 43 point difference in score
What?
LINK
Click the link. The 247 talent composite has a ranking and a score.
UGA is 2nd and their score is 1008 points. Texas is 4th and their score is 953 points. The difference is UGA with a 55 point advantage.
LSU is ranked 8th with 906 points. Southern Cal is ranked 15th with 863 points. The difference is LSU with a 43 point advantage.
Even though Texas is only 2 spots behind UGA and Southern Cal is 7 spots behind LSU, UGA has a bigger talent edge over Texas than LSU has over USC because the "point difference" is greater.
It's just math. Teams at the edges of a bell curve in statistics (either the top or the bottom) often have a larger difference than those closer to the middle.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:53 pm to Lolathon234
quote:
You're going to have 18-24 year old "mercenaries" worried about their "careers" transferring at will.
These guys have a chance to accumulate generational wealth through the value of their athletic ability to a university and (potentially) the NFL. I would be pretty damn concerned about it too.
quote:
Most will have no allegiance to their teams, just merely who can compensate them the most/set them up best at the next level.
And what the frick allegiance do the fans have to players?
If the fans had a choice between a 3 star QB from Austin who would crawl over broken glass to play for the Longhorns and some 5 star freak from Los Angeles who can barely spell his name, the fans are going to want the 5 star. And if Texas has a rising senior QB from Dallas who's paid his dues and is slated to start the next season but just isn't quite the caliber of player that is needed for championship football, they will shop the portal, find someone better, and put that QB's arse on the bench. And if Johnny Heisman fricks up his knee scoring the winning touchdown for the Longhorns and ends up living in the projects in ten years, NO ONE IS GOING TO GIVE A frick!
The players want money and opportunity, and the fans want to win. Period. No one seriously cares about anything else. Both parties will replace the other in a heartbeat. The fans just have this delusion that the players should sacrifice their own self interests for the program. Why? What's so special about a fricking school?
Posted on 10/23/24 at 2:17 am to DawginSC
I like numbers & appreciate the explanation, but devil’s advocate 247 talent composite means about as much to me as a midseason AP poll.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 3:18 am to DeathByTossDive225
Could it be that the college game really will replicate the NFL?? Where an 8-8 team could actually win the Super Bowl/National Championship (Steelers)?
Posted on 10/23/24 at 6:00 am to Globetrotter747
quote:
And what the frick allegiance do the fans have to players?
Fans were paying them before it was legal. They wear their jerseys. They idolize them as heroes. They stand in line for their autographs. They put posters up of them. People tell their kids and grandkids about them.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 6:23 am to DeathByTossDive225
quote:
I like numbers & appreciate the explanation, but devil’s advocate 247 talent composite means about as much to me as a midseason AP poll.
I will go further. The 24/7 talent composite means as much as the preseason AP poll.
The 24/7 talent composite is based solely on recruiting rankings. For it to be a completely accurate measure of actual college teams you have to assume all players develop at the same rate OR none of them develop at all.
This is clearly not the case. Some coaches are better at developing and coaching players than others. Some players are late bloomers, while others develop early. There are lots of examples of 3 star high school recruits in the NFL who didn’t really mature and develop until college.
It would be similar to choosing All-star baseball players based solely on their minor league stats while ignoring their major league stats.
It is interesting to look at. You can see who should be relatively good. But it isn’t a measure of how good a team actually is. It also completely ignores need and fit of players. You can have top ten recruiting classes year in and year out. But if you completely ignore offensive linemen it won’t matter how many skill players you have. It also ignores character/off field issues. Most 5 star busts occur not from a lack of skill, but a lack of judgement. What ever happened to that 5 star tight end with mental health issues? Signing a bunch of sketchy 4 and 5 star players is a great way to have a highly ranked recruiting class but a horrible way to build a great team.
Also, quarterback play in college is following the same trend as the NFL. It is the most important position on the field. Having great quarterback play can lead a team to wins they shouldn’t have otherwise won. And on the flip side, poor quarterback play can cause the “better” team to lose games. And in some cases, like with Cam Newton, a quarterback can carry a whole team on his shoulders an entire season. But analyzing and ranking high school quarterbacks is what they probably do the worst job of. Because it is so hard to predict how a player will respond and develop at the next level.
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