re: Playoff Picture Summarized

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that's not true. It depends on who the other 3 playoff entrants are, but if Louisville is a 1-loss P5 champino they have a terrific chance to go over a 1 loss tema that didn't win its conference.

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Okay so who?
Big 10 champ goes over Louisville
SEC Champ goes over Louisville
PAC 12 Champ goes over Louisville

So are you saying 1-loss Louisville (with a loss to Pitt) goes ahead of 1-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan? Which one?

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Why does a one loss Oregon control it’s destiny, but a one loss Bama doesn’t?

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That’s easy. Because Oregon has an upcoming opportunity to avenge that loss AND win their league all in one game. Also their loss to Washington was closer and on the road.

If Bama had lost a very close one to Texas in Austin and was going to get a chance to avenge that loss and win a conference title in 2 weeks, they they too would control their own destiny.

If you can’t spot the difference, then you are beyond help.

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I am starting to think the PAC 12 Champ gets in regardless… barring one of them losing this weekend. The committee obviously values 1-loss Oregon ahead of all other 1 loss teams at the moment, and a win over Washington would only solidify that IMO.

Teams that control their own destiny:
Ohio State
Michigan
Georgia
Washington
Oregon
Florida State

A max of just 3 teams can make it from this group in most scenarios, but whoever wins out, goes.

Teams who need help but still have a great shot:

Texas- has to win out and hope for 1 other team to lose between Georgia and Florida State.

Alabama- has to win out and hope for 1 other team to lose between Florida State and Texas

Teams who need help and chances don’t look very good:

1-loss Georgia- needs Florida State AND Texas to lose… would also help to have OSU beat Michigan.

OSU/Michigan loser- needs Georgia to beat Bama and for Florida State AND Texas to lose

Teams that have no shot:

Louisville- even if they win out there is no way ACC champ Louisville goes ahead of 1-loss OSU or Michigan

PAC 12 Title Game loser- no way PAC gets two teams in. A 1-loss Washington does not go ahead of a 1-loss OSU.Michigan loser

Conclusion

There are dozens of scenarios, but it’s actually very cut and dry barring major upsets during rivalry weekend. Here is the order:

1. Big 10 Champ
2. Georgia (if SEC Champ)
3. PAC 12 Champ
4. Florida St (if ACC champ)
5. Texas (if Big 12 champ)
6. Alabama (if SEC champ)
7. Ohio State (if they lose to Michigan)
8. Georgia (if they lose to Bama)
9. Michigan (if they lose to Ohio St)
—— no other teams possible to make cut——
10. PAC 12 loser
11. Louisville if ACC champ

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If that's a summary, I'd hate to see a dissertation.

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So you think a 1-loss Louisville gets in over a 1-loss Georgia? Interesting.

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At the moment, yes I do. Based SOLELY on precedent, because that's what the committee has shown over 9 years what would happen.

It's worth noting that things can change year to year, so this may be the year they'd change course and do something they've never done before. But if we're just juding based no prior decisions, yes they would go over us. It's also worth saying though that they've probably never been put in an apples to apples spot like this either.

If Louisville’s resume was the same but it was FSU or Clemson, then I agree. But Committee Precedent shows Louisville has zero shot getting in over teams named Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, or Georgia.

If hairs have to be split, the more elite the program is always the deciding factor.

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Committee Precedent shows Louisville has zero shot getting in over teams named Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, or Georgia.

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what are you basing that on?

If name appeal was all that mattered then teams like washington, tcu, cincinnati would've never made it. They've shown that conference titles and wins matter most.

I think after last year’s embarrassment they might be alittle more careful about letting lesser teams in. I personally think Georgia could be in with a close loss to Bama. I mean they are the back to back defending Champs.

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They are complete on both offense and defense.

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Based on what exactly?

Was it the win over Texas Tech that sold you?

Utah?

The narrow win over dumpster fire USC?

Texas has 3 top 25 wins.
Bama has 3 top 25 wins and the #1 overall SoS in the nation.

Oregon has 1 borderline top 25 win against a team who I believe had their 3rd string QB at the time.

Why are they being rewarded for not scheduling anyone when the other two similar teams both played an elite OOC opponent?

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There is no way Bama goes over a 12-1 Texas Big 12 champ. No way.

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I wouldn’t bet against Bama if they win out.

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Only Bama actually has a pulse of those "wins". Seriously, seriously weak schedule.

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Well K State is #6 in FEI and Bama is #10 in FEI so they have two wins that are far more impressive than any anything Oregon has accomplished and have a much higher SoS ranking so if Texas is "seriously weak" what does that say about Oregon and their resume?

You "feel" Oregon is good and emotionally you don't want the horns in the playoffs, but objectively Oregon has done nothing to demonstrate they belong in the playoffs given the resumes of the schools they are competing with.