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Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:40 am
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:40 am
I am starting to think the PAC 12 Champ gets in regardless… barring one of them losing this weekend. The committee obviously values 1-loss Oregon ahead of all other 1 loss teams at the moment, and a win over Washington would only solidify that IMO.
Teams that control their own destiny:
Ohio State
Michigan
Georgia
Washington
Oregon
Florida State
A max of just 3 teams can make it from this group in most scenarios, but whoever wins out, goes.
Teams who need help but still have a great shot:
Texas- has to win out and hope for 1 other team to lose between Georgia and Florida State.
Alabama- has to win out and hope for 1 other team to lose between Florida State and Texas
Teams who need help and chances don’t look very good:
1-loss Georgia- needs Florida State AND Texas to lose… would also help to have OSU beat Michigan.
OSU/Michigan loser- needs Georgia to beat Bama and for Florida State AND Texas to lose
Teams that have no shot:
Louisville- even if they win out there is no way ACC champ Louisville goes ahead of 1-loss OSU or Michigan
PAC 12 Title Game loser- no way PAC gets two teams in. A 1-loss Washington does not go ahead of a 1-loss OSU.Michigan loser
Conclusion
There are dozens of scenarios, but it’s actually very cut and dry barring major upsets during rivalry weekend. Here is the order:
1. Big 10 Champ
2. Georgia (if SEC Champ)
3. PAC 12 Champ
4. Florida St (if ACC champ)
5. Texas (if Big 12 champ)
6. Alabama (if SEC champ)
7. Ohio State (if they lose to Michigan)
8. Georgia (if they lose to Bama)
9. Michigan (if they lose to Ohio St)
—— no other teams possible to make cut——
10. PAC 12 loser
11. Louisville if ACC champ
Teams that control their own destiny:
Ohio State
Michigan
Georgia
Washington
Oregon
Florida State
A max of just 3 teams can make it from this group in most scenarios, but whoever wins out, goes.
Teams who need help but still have a great shot:
Texas- has to win out and hope for 1 other team to lose between Georgia and Florida State.
Alabama- has to win out and hope for 1 other team to lose between Florida State and Texas
Teams who need help and chances don’t look very good:
1-loss Georgia- needs Florida State AND Texas to lose… would also help to have OSU beat Michigan.
OSU/Michigan loser- needs Georgia to beat Bama and for Florida State AND Texas to lose
Teams that have no shot:
Louisville- even if they win out there is no way ACC champ Louisville goes ahead of 1-loss OSU or Michigan
PAC 12 Title Game loser- no way PAC gets two teams in. A 1-loss Washington does not go ahead of a 1-loss OSU.Michigan loser
Conclusion
There are dozens of scenarios, but it’s actually very cut and dry barring major upsets during rivalry weekend. Here is the order:
1. Big 10 Champ
2. Georgia (if SEC Champ)
3. PAC 12 Champ
4. Florida St (if ACC champ)
5. Texas (if Big 12 champ)
6. Alabama (if SEC champ)
7. Ohio State (if they lose to Michigan)
8. Georgia (if they lose to Bama)
9. Michigan (if they lose to Ohio St)
—— no other teams possible to make cut——
10. PAC 12 loser
11. Louisville if ACC champ
This post was edited on 11/20/23 at 10:41 am
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Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:42 am to AUTiger789
Bama controls its own destiny. If they win out they're in. Uga is a place holder for whoever makes it out the sec as playoff rep.
This post was edited on 11/20/23 at 10:44 am
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:45 am to AUTiger789
The Oregon love from the committee is inexplicable.
Their only ranked win is over a gutted Utah team.
Even Michigan has a better schedule so far than Oregon.
Set aside Alabama, why is Oregon ahead of Texas? It makes zero sense.
Their only ranked win is over a gutted Utah team.
Even Michigan has a better schedule so far than Oregon.
Set aside Alabama, why is Oregon ahead of Texas? It makes zero sense.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:45 am to bamabaseballsec
A one loss Bama is a lock with a head to head win over undefeated UGA
that win would vault them over Texas even with that head to head in play
that win would vault them over Texas even with that head to head in play
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:46 am to bamabaseballsec
There is no way Bama goes over a 12-1 Texas Big 12 champ. No way.
Bama has a good chance to go if they win out, but they MUST hope either FSU or Texas trips up.
Bama has a good chance to go if they win out, but they MUST hope either FSU or Texas trips up.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:46 am to bamabaseballsec
quote:
Bama controls its own destiny. If they win out they're in.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:46 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Louisville- even if they win out there is no way ACC champ Louisville goes ahead of 1-loss OSU or Michigan
I wouldn’t be so sure. Michigans best win is Penn St. Mich doesn’t have as bad a loss as Louisville but they’ve played arguably just as weak a schedule. I still think they get in over Louisville, but I wouldn’t put it that cut and dry
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:49 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Louisville- even if they win out there is no way ACC champ Louisville goes ahead of 1-loss OSU or Michigan
that's not true. It depends on who the other 3 playoff entrants are, but if Louisville is a 1-loss P5 champino they have a terrific chance to go over a 1 loss tema that didn't win its conference.
If the PAC/SEC/Big10/Big12 all have 0/1 loss champs then yes I'd agree they're getting the short end of the stick.
quote:
There are dozens of scenarios, but it’s actually very cut and dry
yep, it usually is.
Tomorrow night people are going to be doing advanced calculus to figure out every possible scenario when in reality we'll pretty much know with 99% certainty what's going to happen at the conclusion of 12/2's games
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:49 am to nicholastiger
If Bama beats UGA, Bama would be ranked ahead of UGA. So not only would Texas have the head-to-head against Bama, it would have a better "best win" than Bama (on the road against a higher ranked Bama team vs neutral site against a lower ranked UGA team).
No chance Bama gets in over Texas if both win out. And I say this as someone who would love to see that happen.
No chance Bama gets in over Texas if both win out. And I say this as someone who would love to see that happen.
This post was edited on 11/20/23 at 10:50 am
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:50 am to tide06
quote:
The Oregon love from the committee is inexplicable.
They'll get their shite pushed in by Georgia again, proving they'd be an 8-5 team in the SEC.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:52 am to tide06
quote:Oregon would destroy many of the SEC teams. They are complete on both offense and defense. Certainly better than anything the B12 is going to put forth
The Oregon love from the committee is inexplicable
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:55 am to ColoradoAg
Absolutely would be most teams in the sec. They're still 14 points worse than bama or uga and would struggle to put mizzou lsu or ole miss away
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:55 am to Not Cooper
quote:
I wouldn’t be so sure. Michigans best win is Penn St. Mich doesn’t have as bad a loss as Louisville but they’ve played arguably just as weak a schedule. I still think they get in over Louisville, but I wouldn’t put it that cut and dry
Louisville also has a win over ND like Ohio St. More convincing win at that. And will also have a win over presumably undefeated FSU albeit without Travis. Personally I think it would be BS to put the Michigan/OSU loser over them if they go 12-1 with a conference title.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:55 am to AUTiger789
Why does a one loss Oregon control it’s destiny, but a one loss Bama doesn’t? Couldn’t be bias
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:58 am to GreatPumpkin
Because Alabama lost to another 1 loss team at home.
And if Texas destroys a shite Texas Tech team, there's the committee's argument for moving them past Oregon, who only beat them by 8.
And if Texas destroys a shite Texas Tech team, there's the committee's argument for moving them past Oregon, who only beat them by 8.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 10:59 am to GreatPumpkin
quote:
Bama controls its own destiny. If they win out they're in.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 11:00 am to nicholastiger
quote:
A one loss Bama is a lock with a head to head win over undefeated UGA
that win would vault them over Texas even with that head to head in play
I don't think it would work out that way with Texas, but I guess we'll see if it happens. I don't think they'll ignore the head to head.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 11:00 am to tide06
quote:
The Oregon love from the committee is inexplicable.
Their only ranked win is over a gutted Utah team.
Even Michigan has a better schedule so far than Oregon.
Set aside Alabama, why is Oregon ahead of Texas? It makes zero sense.
I agree with you. Although, Oregon would have to beat Oregon State and then Washington to make it. I think that will be enough. It's only loss would be a 3-point one on the road against a top 10 team.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 11:03 am to MetryMauler
quote:If Oregon wins out they are in. The only decent win on the Texas schedule is Bama, and they finish out with Tech and probably OkSU. That isn't going to move the needle at all. A new year's six is a good leap for seven-win Steve in hippie town.
I agree with you. Although, Oregon would have to beat Oregon State and then Washington to make it. I think that will be enough. It's only loss would be a 3-point one on the road against a top 10 team.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 11:06 am to GreatPumpkin
quote:
Why does a one loss Oregon control it’s destiny, but a one loss Bama doesn’t? Couldn’t be bias
Idk if that's true or not, I'm just joining the convo posed by the OP....
but a 1-loss bama would presumably be duking it out for a spot with another 1-loss P5 champ that beat bama head to head. A 1-loss oregon would be a P5 champ that has beaten eveyr team it's played (after winning a rematch against UW).
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