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re: NBC SEC Basketball Off-season Update and Predictions

Posted on 7/17/19 at 12:45 pm to
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/17/19 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

I'd be absolutely shocked if UGA made the tournament

I wouldn't be shocked, but I'm also not predicting it...

It definitely was a huge hit to the team's ceiling to have Claxton leave early.

Curious to see if grad transfer Donnell Gresham ends up being a solid addition operating at one of the guard spots. We were so deficient at the point guard spot last year that we basically needed to run Nic there for big chunks.

The roster has been massively upgraded from a talent perspective, but it's going to take a lot of things going right for it to come together still.

I did think that adding Linehan as a coach was *huge* for Crean, who clearly has a great mind for offense, but defensively needs help.

ETA: FWIW, Florida was a 9 win SEC team last year and made the tournament. Ole Miss and Miss St won 10 and both were in... given your "6-9 win SEC team" comment, if they're on the high side or just slightly above it, they could still be in. As I said, wouldn't predict it in July... but if they come together early, it shouldn't be shocking given the talent influx.
This post was edited on 7/17/19 at 12:51 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 7/17/19 at 12:48 pm to
There are a lot of variables and volatility in the SEC standings this year. Whole bunch of teams who I could easily see finishing 4th, 12th or somewhere in between.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/17/19 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

There are a lot of variables and volatility in the SEC standings this year. Whole bunch of teams who I could easily see finishing 4th, 12th or somewhere in between.


Yeah... we hear (incorrectly imo) about "parity" a lot in football, but I would say that SEC Basketball and Baseball might be 2 of the most parity-prone sports we have as a conference...

Both sports, but seems particularly accurate in basketball that it has 2-3 teams in any given season that really separate and then there is a big pool in the middle of "high variability" where matchups, health, etc can play a big role in determining the order... and usually a couple of teams at the bottom (see: UGA last year along with Vandy).

We saw kind of the same thing in Baseball. 11/14 teams were essentially tournament caliber (I'm including Mizzou despite the snub).
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/17/19 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

Florida was a 9 win SEC team last year and made the tournament. Ole Miss and Miss St won 10 and both were in... given your "6-9 win SEC team" comment, if they're on the high side or just slightly above it, they could still be in.


While true, Florida was a strange class last year. Could happen for Georgia with a strong OOC showing. Have they released their schedule yet?
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62741 posts
Posted on 7/17/19 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

NBC SEC Basketball


Odd combination

Like CNN and the GOP or FoxNews and the DNC
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/17/19 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

While true, Florida was a strange class last year. Could happen for Georgia with a strong OOC showing. Have they released their schedule yet?


Yeah... by no means am I saying it will happen... just that the parameters given by the poster along with the "I'll be absolutely shocked" don't exactly line up. Within his parameters, it's possible to get selected (though I think UF would be one of few teams to get the benefit of the doubt there... UGA much less likely even with a great OOC record just due to program perception right now). And at +1 win to his high end projection, 2 other teams made it.

As far as schedule for next year, this is all I've seen so far: LINK /

Highlights:
Maui Invitational teams include: Dayton (1st round), Mich St/Va Tech (second round), opposite half - BYU, Kansas, UCLA, Chaminade
Additional games OOC:
Top 50ish Ken Pom last year: Arizona State, Memphis,
Top 100ish Ken Pom las year: Ga Tech, Ga Southern, SMU
Won't pick up a BigXII opponent as part of the challenge due to bottom 4 finish in 2018-19

I haven't really looked to see the likelihood of those teams being "quality opponents" thus far, but certainly not a lot of big names there short of a deep run in Maui and taking out a Kansas along with Mich St or something (which would be unlikely early if I'm being honest).
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/17/19 at 2:25 pm to
quote:


Top 50ish Ken Pom last year: Arizona State, Memphis,


Oh yeah, forgot about the AAC/SEC match ups. That is a great game to prove something. Could be 1st and 2nd pick in that game.

Would love for Arkansas to start playing Penny down the road.
Posted by mizzoubeast
St. Louis
Member since Jun 2019
43 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 10:19 am to
quote:

Nikko
Your name should be Nikko2theZOU
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37605 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

I like this SCar team a lot and the author didn't seem to know too much about them (didn't even mention Justin Minaya) but I'd contest this. This roster absolutely is not more talented than the FF one with Thornwell, Dozier, Notice, and Silva

I can see your point but I dunno .... I’ve been to a couple of informal practices and, it would appear to me, that they’re going to be more talented top to bottom this year especially in terms of sheer athleticism.

First of all Lawson is the best player Martin has probably ever had. He’s likely to go in the first round after his sophomore season if he lives up to his potential and doesn’t let the hype get in his head. He’s better than PJ already.

Bryant.... I’m just amazed by the progression of this kid. If he does what he’s been doing in practice, taking it to the hole from the wing, he’ll be better than Thornwell. Now, can he be the leader that Thornwell was, I dunno. I don’t know if we’ve ever had a more athletic guy than Bryant. Maybe Kevin Joyce back in the 70s, maybe Herbert Lee Davis Under Fogler .... but I dunno. Bryant is a slashing fool and he can pull up and hit the three as well.

Kotsar had issues between his ears last season. That pretty little (tall) girlfriend of his scrambled his nugget. He appears to be over that now and on a mission. I think he’s the last remaining member of that Final Four team. He’s worked really hard and it shows, especially with his newfound move to the left

We do not have a Silva this year but Silva was not all that dominate during that Final Four run. We do have Frink who has lost thirty pounds and is down to 245 and is a beast who can run the floor.

This team is going to play very fast. It’s smaller but it is really athletic and really fast.

Loaded with big guards and small forwards who can run and pull up and feed.

I dunno, I really like this team and so does Martin. We may surprise everyone with our athleticism and with the shooters we have on this team.

It appears to me that the league is leaning more towards fast paced athletic teams that can run the floor.

Martin’s teams are always going to play good D.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

Oh yeah, forgot about the AAC/SEC match ups. That is a great game to prove something. Could be 1st and 2nd pick in that game.


Yeah. I had forgotten about their pickup on Wiseman. I did recall that we were competing heavily with them for Precious Achiuwa and Lester Quinones where they won out though... Could definitely be an interesting team as well. Would have loved seeing a Wiseman and Claxton matchup. :( Nic leaving really did take a lot of wind out of the sails, but the team has time to figure their shite out... Hopefully something comes together.
Posted by Terrific Tales
Member since Jan 2019
19425 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 1:06 pm to
If we get Dante we are gonna be way better this year than last year. Problem is Dante is being all secretive.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

If we get Dante we are gonna be way better this year than last year. Problem is Dante is being all secretive.




He is going to reclassify? Last I heard it is still pretty much 50/50.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

He is going to reclassify? Last I heard it is still pretty much 50/50.



He's trying to get it done, he is playing things very close to the vest
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 1:42 pm to
quote:




He's trying to get it done, he is playing things very close to the vest


Would be a very nice addition but I think its Kentucky in 19 or 20. Will know fairly soon either way.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 2:08 pm to
If he makes it into 19 I dont see why he would pick Kentucky at all, they have loads of big guys.
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
25495 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 2:14 pm to
I could see Bama finishing as high as 3rd if everything comes together perfectly or as low as 10 if we struggle to shoot and get abused inside on defense
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

If he makes it into 19 I dont see why he would pick Kentucky at all, they have loads of big guys.




Eh, kids make strange decisions regarding positional need/fit all the time. Kentucky has been able to add players like that before when it really shouldn't make sense.

Just appears to be the most smoke around Kentucky lately.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 2:29 pm to
DP
This post was edited on 7/18/19 at 2:31 pm
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 2:31 pm to
Seems like most recent picks have been to LSU
LINK /

We've been recruiting him for a long time and before the suspension thing he was almost a lock per some folks.

He's an immediate starter here with literally no competition at center.
This post was edited on 7/18/19 at 2:32 pm
Posted by BluegrassBelle
RIP Hefty Lefty - 1981-2019
Member since Nov 2010
98922 posts
Posted on 7/18/19 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

If he makes it into 19 I dont see why he would pick Kentucky at all, they have loads of big guys.


This team is probably the most position-less team Cal will have at UK. No real "true" big man. And as evidenced by last season, depth isn't going to hurt anyone in the post. He'd get plenty of PT at Kentucky.
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