re: Mississippi State Schedule Prediction

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at least they are finally playing a respectable schedule.

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Arkansas 2018 OOC
E Illinois
Colorado State
North Texas
Tulsa

Arkansas 2019 OOC
Portland State
Colorado State
San Jose State
Western Kentucky

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Another strong start then the wheels fall off?

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Last season the wheels came off after week one. How do you define a strong start?

“If Leach wins no more than 5 games he won't want to return for year 3.”



Man, what planet are you living on?
Leach will be our coach until 2030 or longer (He will retire at State).

He is a proven winner who has been successful for almost twenty years. I know in today’s society, people want results now but in his case, we need a little patience to allow his program to develop. We saw measurable development at the end of last season.

I have no idea of how many games we win this year but we will be better.

La Tech, NC State, Memphis are all good OOC games (no gimmies there) unlike some of our conference friends who are playing one or maybe two decent OOC’s. We have three on the books.

Back to the HC. At State, stability helps the program. Moorhead only being here two years hurt overall though he did recruit well. The longer Leach is at State the better we will be. He will want to be here for year three and beyond.

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And they didn't even win all of these

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They didn't even win most of them, went 4-4

Wait, you’re not sold on the OM hype? Shocking.

I like breaking schedules down into segments

Segment 1: Non-Conference
La Tech W
NC State W
Memphis W

All three of these teams qualify as good OOC teams. NC State was 8-4 last season in a P5 conference, Memphis was a respectable 8-3 and Louisiana Tech was 5-5.

State could go anywhere between 1-2 and 3-0 here. I feel like they will beat LT handily and then win a tight game with NC State to give them momentum heading into the Memphis game.

3-0: 60% chance
2-1: 30% chance
1-2: 10% chance
0-3: <1% chance


Segment 2: Opening Conference Slate
LSU Toss up
Texas A&M L
Vandy - W
Kentucky - W

Again, 2-2 seems the most likely, followed by 3-1. I feel like Vanderbilt and Kentucky are wins, with LSU a possible win. I do not think State wins at College Station, but 4-0 in this segment is probably the third most likely outcome.

2-2: 50% chance
3-1: 25% chance
4-0: 10% chance
1-3: 10% chance
0-4: 5% chance

Segment 3: The A Train
Alabama L
Arkansas W
Auburn Toss up

Alabama is a sure L, but how good is Arkansas and Auburn going to be. 1-2 looks like the most likely outcome.

1-2: 65% chance
2-1: 25% chance
0-3: 10% chance
3-0: <1% chance


Segment 4: Cupcake and Rivalry
TN State W
Ole Miss Toss up

Tennessee State is a sure win, and the Egg Bowl is at home.

2-0: 65% chance
1-1: 35% chance
0-2 <1% chance

8-4 is the best case realistic scenario. With 6-6/7-5 the most likely scenario, followed by 5-7, followed by 9-3. 10+ wins and <4 wins are the long shots.

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7-5 is reasonable and what most State fans expect. 8-4 is the ceiling.

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Without looking at the schedule, 7-5 is jumping out at me as the correct pick. In those 7 wins will be an upset, in the 5 losses will also be an upset.

Bo Nix has thrown for 515 yds 4 TDs and no INTs vs Miss State in his only 2 years, 2021 wont be any different.

La Tech W
NC State L
Memphis W
LSU L
Texas A&M L
Vandy - W
Kentucky - W
Alabama L
Arkansas W
Auburn L
TN State W
Ole Miss L

6-6. Not sure how familiar people here are with NC State but they return most of their production off a team that went 8-4 last year.

I think Memphis will take just enough of a step back this year to allow a comfy win, but weird things happen at the Liberty Bowl.