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LSU defense vs Ole Miss offense
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:31 pm
Too much talk about Kiffin this week, so let’s talk about an actually interesting matchup.
Last year, Blake Baker held Ole Miss to 24 points, their lowest total of the season (tied with Wazzu). The rebs had 314 yards passing and 166 yards rushing (480 total yards). Will this year be any different?
If this is an X’s and O’s battle, Blake Baker definitely has the edge over John David Baker who is calling plays against an SEC defense for the first time. However, I think high level matchups are a lot more about Jimmies and Joes - assuming a base level of talent parity which you have in the SEC.
Notable LSU returners:
Whit weeks
PJ woodland
Tamarcus Cooley
DJ Pickett
Notable LSU departures:
AJ Haulcy
Mansoor Delane
Jack Pyburn
Harold Perkins
Patrick Payton
Ahmad Breaux
Notable LSU additions:
Princewill Umanmielen
TJ Dottery
Jordan Ross
Ty Benefield
Deuce Geralds
Dylan Carpenter
Notable Ole Miss returners
Trinidad Chambliss
Kewan Lacy
Deuce Alexander
Notable Ole Miss departures:
Cayden Lee
Dezhaun Stribling
Trey Wallace
Daquan Wright
Notable Ole Miss additions:
Caleb Odom (technically on the team but sat behind Wright)
Johntay Cook
Horatio Fields
Traylon Ray
Makhi Frazier
My take: the matchup to watch is LSU DBs vs Ole Miss receivers. Last year Delane and Haulcy held our best two receivers to 3 catches combined. They are now in the NFL and Pickett is good but still young. Benefield is an interesting matchup as well but more in terms of deep coverage not locking someone down all night.
On the flip side, we don’t have a Cayden Lee this year to be the outlet if Deuce Alexander is locked down. Overall we lost ~ 65% of our receiving production from last year. I think we will know by early second quarter how those matchups are going and if any of the new receivers are ready to step up.
LSU definitely upgraded their DLine, but there is still a question around freshmen making inevitable freshman mistakes. Linebackers are a year more experienced but I’m not sure Dottery > Pyburn.
The other thing to keep in mind is that this was Chambliss’s 3rd game as a starter last year (Ark and Tulane). He has absolutely improved as a decision maker and knows the offense better. And of course Lacy is a huge weapon. I won’t say he is any better than last year, but I don’t think Ole Miss has a shot without him.
TL;DR LSU is the same or better everywhere but the secondary. If Ole Miss doesn’t have a second receiving threat it will be a long day. But if LSU underclassmen make mistakes, Chambliss and Lacy will make them pay. I expect to score 24-31 points. Anything more than that is a big win. Anything less gives us almost no shot.
Last year, Blake Baker held Ole Miss to 24 points, their lowest total of the season (tied with Wazzu). The rebs had 314 yards passing and 166 yards rushing (480 total yards). Will this year be any different?
If this is an X’s and O’s battle, Blake Baker definitely has the edge over John David Baker who is calling plays against an SEC defense for the first time. However, I think high level matchups are a lot more about Jimmies and Joes - assuming a base level of talent parity which you have in the SEC.
Notable LSU returners:
Whit weeks
PJ woodland
Tamarcus Cooley
DJ Pickett
Notable LSU departures:
AJ Haulcy
Mansoor Delane
Jack Pyburn
Harold Perkins
Patrick Payton
Ahmad Breaux
Notable LSU additions:
Princewill Umanmielen
TJ Dottery
Jordan Ross
Ty Benefield
Deuce Geralds
Dylan Carpenter
Notable Ole Miss returners
Trinidad Chambliss
Kewan Lacy
Deuce Alexander
Notable Ole Miss departures:
Cayden Lee
Dezhaun Stribling
Trey Wallace
Daquan Wright
Notable Ole Miss additions:
Caleb Odom (technically on the team but sat behind Wright)
Johntay Cook
Horatio Fields
Traylon Ray
Makhi Frazier
My take: the matchup to watch is LSU DBs vs Ole Miss receivers. Last year Delane and Haulcy held our best two receivers to 3 catches combined. They are now in the NFL and Pickett is good but still young. Benefield is an interesting matchup as well but more in terms of deep coverage not locking someone down all night.
On the flip side, we don’t have a Cayden Lee this year to be the outlet if Deuce Alexander is locked down. Overall we lost ~ 65% of our receiving production from last year. I think we will know by early second quarter how those matchups are going and if any of the new receivers are ready to step up.
LSU definitely upgraded their DLine, but there is still a question around freshmen making inevitable freshman mistakes. Linebackers are a year more experienced but I’m not sure Dottery > Pyburn.
The other thing to keep in mind is that this was Chambliss’s 3rd game as a starter last year (Ark and Tulane). He has absolutely improved as a decision maker and knows the offense better. And of course Lacy is a huge weapon. I won’t say he is any better than last year, but I don’t think Ole Miss has a shot without him.
TL;DR LSU is the same or better everywhere but the secondary. If Ole Miss doesn’t have a second receiving threat it will be a long day. But if LSU underclassmen make mistakes, Chambliss and Lacy will make them pay. I expect to score 24-31 points. Anything more than that is a big win. Anything less gives us almost no shot.
This post was edited on 9/14/26 at 3:33 pm
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Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:36 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
LSU defense vs Ole Miss offense
I think the overall talent level on the ole Miss offense is slightly down from last year, but Chambliss is such an unbelievable college quarterback that it’s just tough to pick against him.
The LSU defense is MUCH MUCH better this year; the front 7 is the nastiest, fastest, and smartest I’ve seen at LSU since 2011. They will make life absolutely tough for ole Miss
This post was edited on 9/14/26 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:40 pm to PurpleSingularity
LSU’s D is way better and OM may be the same or slightly worse.
But everything is out the window with this game.
Chambliss has tape from pavia and marcel reed to learn from.
But everything is out the window with this game.
Chambliss has tape from pavia and marcel reed to learn from.
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:43 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
LSU is the same or better everywhere but the secondary.
I think LSU's secondary is about the same.
Losing Delane is a big downgrade, but improvement from young second-year starters Woodland and Pickett offsets some of that. Benefield is an upgrade at one safety spot. Cooley back again is a wash at the other.
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:47 pm to SEC Doctor
quote:
I think LSU's secondary is about the same.
You might be right, but I don’t think you can say that until after you see how this game goes. Delane and Haulcy had 25 tackles and literally took our 2 best receivers completely out of the game last year.
I expect Pickett and Woodland to be better but top 10 pick better is a bit of a leap.
Mentioned Benefield as an upgrade that will limit the deep threat.
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:55 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Linebackers are a year more experienced but I’m not sure Dottery > Pyburn.
Pyburn is a DE. He’d be a 3-4 OLB probably but was not in our defense because Baker runs a 4-2-5. Dottery so far has been more impactful over the first two games than Pyburn was IMO over the first two last year.
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:58 pm to PurpleSingularity
Yeah, our WR corp has not panned out thus far...BUT Stribling was dog shite the first few weeks. Sometimes it takes some reps but I'm not impressed with our additions.
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:58 pm to lsudave1
Ah, I remember all the articles listing him as an NFL LB so didn’t check his position last year. So maybe Umanmielen is more replacement than major upgrade there and Dottery is an upgrade.
Posted on 9/14/26 at 3:59 pm to Dixie.Reb
Amazing the amount of crawfishing from your fan base this week.
Posted on 9/14/26 at 4:08 pm to Dixie.Reb
Lacy won't rush for 100 yards book it. Not on this defense. I also don't think Ole Miss will have more than 350 yards total offense.
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