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anc
Member since Nov 2012
14740 posts

Looking at the first round CWS matchups
Vanderbilt vs. Arizona

Vandy is the defending champs, and with Rocker and Leiter on the mound, they seem like they are the team to beat. Arizona can flat out hit the ball, so Rocker vs. the Wildcat lineup should be a great matchup. But Zona doesn't have the arms to match Vanderbilt, so the Dores cruise to an 8-4 type win that feels like a bigger win.

Stanford vs. North Carolina State

The "Cardinal" rule of Omaha is that there is always one team there that is better than they seem, and they are usually a West Coast bunch. This year its Stanford, who is 5-0 in the postseason and looks a lot like the 2013 UCLA team that won it all. NC State is just happy to be here, and won't be able to contend with a Stanford team that beat the brakes off of Texas Tech in the Super. Stanford wins 11-1.

Tennessee vs. Virginia

After a couple of snoozefests on Day 1, Sunday in Omaha has a pair of good matchups starting with UT vs. UVA. Tennessee is the best team on this side of the bracket, but Virginia is battle tested and has Omaha experience. Will the moment be too big for the BaseVols? I think they win a tight game and settle down for their Tuesday matchup. Tennessee wins 5-4 over the Hoos.

Mississippi State vs. Texas

State already has a win over Texas this season, but it was early. Texas looks like the better team on paper, but their RPI (5 vs. 6) and record are just slightly better than State's. The number that jumps out in this matchup is Strength of Schedule. State played the #8 schedule in the country, and just won a Super Regional from the #4 RPI team in the nation. Texas was the #28 SoS and had the easiest regional and then played a 4 seed South Florida in the Super.

Is Texas overrated? Look at the Big 12 in the NCAA Tournament. National seed TCU finished third in their own regional. Oklahoma State couldnt handle UCSB. Texas Tech got straight up smoked in the Super. The Big 12 sucks and so does Texas. MSU 6, Texas 2.


MullenBoys
Mississippi St. Fan
In the minds of Ole Miss fans
Member since Apr 2014
10745 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
Texas is still better than you think and they have solid pitching.


anc
Member since Nov 2012
14740 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
Ty Madden is a solid pitcher. But we have already smoked him this season. Before the NCAA Tournament, he lost three of his last four starts, including twice to 25-27 West Virginia (regular season and opening of B12 Tournament).

He did beat Southern University-Baton Rouge and South Florida in NCAA Tournament play.

It just seems that Texas' gaudy record is beating up on a weak Big 12. Aggy beat them for goodness sake. They went 0-4 against the SEC this season.

I contend if South Alabama would have beaten USF in that second game, we'd be playing the Jaguars. Certainly if Florida would have won that regional, we'd be playing them.

Texas sucks.

This post was edited on 6/16 at 9:06 am


Adam4848
LSU Fan
LA
Member since Apr 2006
15449 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
It'll be Vanderbilt and the Texas/MSU winner in the championship


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176
Oilfieldbiology
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2016
22928 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
SEC has 38% of CWS participants (3/8) and had 3 more teams in the supers, but we are overrated as a conference.


anc
Member since Nov 2012
14740 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
Exactly. The Big 12 got four teams to the tournament. The SEC was a timely hit from getting four teams to Omaha.

Oklahoma State and TCU finished third in their respective regionals.

Texas Tech won their regional, but got a break when UNC beat UCLA in their opening game. Then Stanford slapped the shite out of them in the Super. Two game sweep, combined score 24-3.

Texas beat Southern U., Arizona State and Fairfield in their regional, then got a team that started the postseason with a losing record in the Super.

This post was edited on 6/16 at 9:28 am


AllbyMyRelf
Mississippi St. Fan
Virginia
Member since Nov 2014
2741 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
I think the worst possible scenario would be us losing to Tenner in the championship series. The Rant would be unbearable for years to come


anc
Member since Nov 2012
14740 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
State and Tennessee cant play for the title.

Hell, Tennessee is without a doubt the best team on our side of the bracket. The only thing you have to worry about with them is experience on the big stage.

If you picked the best team on each side of the bracket - its going to be a UT/Vandy final. But Stanford is tricky and the UT experience factor is a wildcard. State players have Omaha experience (third straight trip) and UVA coaches have Omaha experience (5th trip in last 11 seasons). I think UT and State play a hell of a winners bracket game on Tuesday to get the upper hand in Bracket 2.

NC State is really the only team you can completely throw out. No chance they win this thing.
This post was edited on 6/16 at 9:37 am


tigahland
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2016
2652 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
quote:

Virginia is battle tested and has Omaha experience


genuine question(s): does the program having Omaha experience matter in this situation? were any of their players on the previous roster that made it to Omaha? if i remember correctly, the last time they made it to Omaha was when they won in 15 (may be wrong on this). does Omaha experience come into play?
This post was edited on 6/16 at 9:42 am


nicholastiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
26305 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
Vandy definitely has an advantage running Leiter and Rocker, two top 5 picks out there at least 4 times in a pitcher friendly park. Have to find a way to get into their bullpen and force them to play extra games to eliminate that advantage. If they get to final series, just get it to a game 3 where their pitching depth can be exposed.

Stanford appears to be on a mission and has been playing really well this postseason. NC State is definitely someone that can stick around in a loser's bracket and cause havoc.

Tenn could be overwhelmed by moment with first appearance in a long time and they will not be able to rely on the homerun at TD Ameritrade but they do get an easier opponent to start off in UVA who I think will be 0-2.

Texas is also playing really well this postseason and I don't know what to make of MSU pitching plans for this tourney.


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anc
Member since Nov 2012
14740 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
quote:

genuine question(s): does the program having Omaha experience matter in this situation? were any of their players on the previous roster that made it to Omaha? if i remember correctly, the last time they made it to Omaha was when they won in 15 (may be wrong on this). does Omaha experience come into play?


I think it does with the coaches. I really think thats how Bertman won in '96. That LSU team was the No. 6 seed in Omaha and had no business in the championship. Bertman's experience in previous seasons won the Wichita State game and the semifinal against Florida. Bertman knew how to coach in Omaha.

Of course Tennessee has finished 2nd and 3rd in their previous trips. Maybe experience factor is nonsense.
This post was edited on 6/16 at 9:53 am


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21
Riseupfromtherubble
USA Fan
You'll Never Walk Alone
Member since Jun 2011
36643 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
NC State can rake. Power all through the lineup


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50
El Mattadorr
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Mar 2019
2220 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
quote:

NC State is really the only team you can completely throw out. No chance they win this thing.


They just beat the best team in the country in a 3-game series on their own field. I'm not sure I agree with that statement.


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151
Funky Tide 8
Alabama Fan
Tittleman's Crest
Member since Feb 2009
44663 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
I'll be pulling for MSU, all the way.


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122
Hogfan13
Arkansas Fan
Member since Jul 2019
1665 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
Vandy is kind of weird. They go from the favorite to win the whole thing to a longshot the instant they lose a game that Rocker or Leiter starts. They almost "have to" win any game one of those two start to have a shot. However, they probably will win any game one of those two start.

Tennessee is probably the most complete team right now. It's easy to say that the moment may be too big for them, but they've already had a lot of big moments over the last month, and they keep winning. I guess it's possible that they get overcome by the moment, but I doubt it. I think they have to be the favorite on their side of the bracket.

State - I know they just beat a red hot Notre Dame team in their regional, but it certainly wasn't pretty. Pitching was supposed to be their strength this season, but it hasn't been too impressive for quite a while now. Bednar and McLeoud show up from time to time, but they also have nuclear meltdowns out of nowhere. Their 3rd starter...who is it? The guy that started game 3 of the super was ok, but nothing special. State gave him a huge lead, and he still only went 4 innings, right? The bullpen is pretty good, but it feels like outside of Sims they only have a couple of guys they can really trust. Then their hitting is streaky. Of all the SEC teams left, they are actually the best built for Omaha (hitting wise). They play station to station, and don't usually rely on the longball. However, they have a couple of dead bats in their lineup, so it will be really hard to sustain any potentially big innings. I feel like they win 1 game in Omaha. They will have to click on all cylinders for every single game they play in order to make any noise. They have 0 room for error.

Stanford is probably the most complete non-SEC team. I really feel like the champ comes from the group of Vandy, TN, and Stanford.

I would put the winner of UT/State as a darkhorse, but I think they are both long shots.

If Arizona somehow beats Rocker, then they would immediately jump to the favorite from that side of the bracket IMO.
This post was edited on 6/16 at 11:09 am


BobLeeDagger
Army Fan
In Your Head
Member since May 2016
5946 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
quote:

I think the worst possible scenario would be us losing to Tenner in the championship series. The Rant would be unbearable for years to come


Well we're on the same side of the bracket soooo


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11
4Ghost
US Marine Corps Fan
Member since Sep 2016
7377 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
Vandy- ‘Zona winner takes it all.


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31
XWing atAliciousness
Texas Fan
Member since Jan 2018
2846 posts
 Online 

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
quote:

The Big 12 sucks and so does Texas.
agreed. Not even sure why they let Texas in the tournament in the first place. Everyone knows Texas has gotten to the cws all 37 times on luck and nothing else


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36
DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
quote:

This year its Stanford, who is 5-0 in the postseason


Stanford lost to UC Irvine in their regional in Game 6.

quote:

Stanford wins 11-1.


I really dont get the sudden Stanford love on this board. They might win, and if they do its probably because their Friday night starter is better than NC States, but the two teams dont seem that different to me in terms of quality.

I also don't seem them as being the sudden hot team people are making them out to be this post season as justification for taking them over NC State. Both teams have the same post season record. NC State blasted through the regional (on the road), while stanford had more of a struggle (at home). Stanford blasted through their super regional, while NC State had more of a struggle at the #1 team.

It just seems like people are really discrediting NC State because of the 21-2 loss where they put in guys at the bottom of the pitching depth chart in the third inning once it was 7-1. It was strategy my dudes. That 21 runs really didnt mean anything

quote:

NC State is really the only team you can completely throw out. No chance they win this thing.


Nvm i think you have some NC State bias or something. Probably not worth trying to rationalize
This post was edited on 6/16 at 12:50 pm


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10
Ptins944
Texas Fan
Member since Jan 2019
218 posts
 Online 

re: Looking at the first round CWS matchups
NCAA Stats

Texas & Vanderbilt have the best pitching. Texas's 2.89 ERA (1st) was almost half a run better that Vanderbilt's 3.37 (6th), and was the only ERA in baseball below 3.00.

Texas (3.71), Arizona (3.33), & Vanderbilt (3.30) outscored their opponents by more tha 3 runs/game, (MSU 2.59).

I focus more on pitching, as hitting is heavily influenced by the individual ballparks. IIRC, any ball hit at Disch-Falk within 10 feet of the warning track would be a home run at Tennessee.

Texas stumbled out of the gate; being iced over & frozen for 2 weeks without practice may have hampered their start. We did sweep #1 S.Carolina 3-0.

Texas was assured a high seed in the NCAA tournament, and set up their pitching for the NCAA, not the Big 12 tournament.

Texas was 5-0 in the regional, scoring 10+ runs in 4 of 5 games and outscoring their opponents 49-12. You can bitch about their opponents, but either you win or you don't.

We learned a long time ago you need a deep staff to win the CWS. You can get there with less, but without a 3rd starter and bullpen, your going to have to score a bunch of runs to win. Every team has 1 good starter, who can beat your ace on any given day; if its the 1st game, that's a bitch.

I'm an old, and Texas has a really good team this year. I like our chances.



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