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re: Die by the Three
Posted on 3/30/25 at 2:53 am to Hawglicious
Posted on 3/30/25 at 2:53 am to Hawglicious
Disagree that it's Alabama's ceiling with Oats, but you're right about the game. It's not just off nights, but also because defenses guard the perimeter better in the tournament and that's more effective than guarding better against points in the paint or good sets.
The 3 ball is important, but you don't want to live by it.
The 3 ball is important, but you don't want to live by it.
1
Posted on 3/30/25 at 3:13 am to Hawglicious
Duke walks the Naismith for the rest of the tournament. Flagg is just that good. Nova won by the 3 not long ago. When they started missing Jay Wright actually retired.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 3:24 am to Hawglicious
They die by no defense
Posted on 3/30/25 at 4:43 am to redeye
quote:
The 3 ball is important, but you don't want to live by it.
“Reversion to the mean” is true in all things.
25 of 51
8 of 32
That’s 33 of 83 which is a decent three percentage.
Nothing inherently wrong with sticking to the system.
Duke is the longest team in the country.
Size matters. Coach Oats will likely adjust roster to get a little taller at guard .
Posted on 3/30/25 at 7:58 am to Hawglicious
Bama has a problem with big games under Oates of being very undisciplined.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 8:09 am to 2Dueces
I cam here to start a similar thread about living/dying by the three. They were undisciplined and had some tough breaks, but it's clearly an issue when you're team launches a ton of 3s all season at 35-40% and then shoots 25% from 3 on the biggest game of the year.
Statistically, these analytics guys love shooting the 3, and in the NBA it works a little better. But, in these tournaments, 1 loss and you're out, you need 6 games in a row shooting lights out to win it all. That becomes statistically impossible, especially with the tougher defenses and matchups in a NCAA tournament. Duke made Alabama look bad last night, and all it took was disciplined athletic dudes pressuring the perimeter.
Statistically, these analytics guys love shooting the 3, and in the NBA it works a little better. But, in these tournaments, 1 loss and you're out, you need 6 games in a row shooting lights out to win it all. That becomes statistically impossible, especially with the tougher defenses and matchups in a NCAA tournament. Duke made Alabama look bad last night, and all it took was disciplined athletic dudes pressuring the perimeter.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 8:32 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
That is the biggest problem with Oats system. Pearl has loved the smaller guards. I think this year has shown him that bigger guards, who can shoot and pay D, is the way to go. I just never have liked the small guard philosophy. Size matters.
I honestly think Bruce fell into this philosophy so he could actually keep a guard at a school for multiple years. It's wasn't worth recruiting a taller guard because if he coached them right, they'd be good enough to go pro. Now that we have NIL money, hopefully it'll be slightly easier to keep talent a touch longer.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 8:49 am to theliontamer
quote:
you need 6 games in a row shooting lights out to win it all.
That’s why this is Oats’ ceiling.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 9:04 am to Hawglicious
Yea, and honestly its a fine ceiling. Especially for a football school. As an LSU fan that hasn't even made the tournament in 3 years, id love to be playing elite 8 and final 4 games. It's not crazy to think they could make a title game or win it all. But those guards on bama looked like high school kids next to the duke players. It almost looked like some of the had never played basketball before, and that's just because Duke was so much more prepared. I personally hate the 3 point shooting trend and would want a rough 1990s era basketball culture.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 9:43 am to jangalang
Alabama shot about 30 threes per game this year. That’s the most by any Sweet 16 team.
Last night night, they shot 25% from three, on 32 attempts.
Yet last night they shot 45% from two.
Last night they shot 79% from the stripe, but only attempted 14 free throws.
Did they die by the three last night … probably. At the very least, it could have been closer without 32 three point attempts.
Last night night, they shot 25% from three, on 32 attempts.
Yet last night they shot 45% from two.
Last night they shot 79% from the stripe, but only attempted 14 free throws.
Did they die by the three last night … probably. At the very least, it could have been closer without 32 three point attempts.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 9:53 am to 195bc
quote:
Did they die by the three last night … probably. At the very least, it could have been closer without 32 three point attempts.
Nah. We weren't making any shots. Not just threes. We even missed uncontested dunks.
Just a bad shooting night all around. Seems they took too much away from the BYU game.
Is what it is. I'm fine making the elite 8 and getting bounced by the team that will probably win it all.
This post was edited on 3/30/25 at 9:54 am
Posted on 3/30/25 at 10:21 am to Hawglicious
I agree that Alabama would have to catch lightning in a bottle and have average to above average shooting against very talented teams for 5 games straight to win a national championship. That is unlikely to happen.
But, I am elated with what Oats has accomplished. He has taken Alabama basketball to new heights. I never realized how much fun it was watching your own basketball the second weekend of the tournament.
Maybe one day Alabama will get to be a “basketball” school that can get the big, tough athletic top 10 recruits that seem to be a constant on most championship teams. But until then, I would much rather play the analytics rim/3 point game than try to copy the blue bloods but with less talent. I have seen a lifetime of that, and Oats ball is much more fun.
But, I am elated with what Oats has accomplished. He has taken Alabama basketball to new heights. I never realized how much fun it was watching your own basketball the second weekend of the tournament.
Maybe one day Alabama will get to be a “basketball” school that can get the big, tough athletic top 10 recruits that seem to be a constant on most championship teams. But until then, I would much rather play the analytics rim/3 point game than try to copy the blue bloods but with less talent. I have seen a lifetime of that, and Oats ball is much more fun.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 10:24 am to Hawglicious
I agree partially. Oates doesnt teach defense and the old adage is still true offense wins game defense wins championships.
Eventually you are going to have an off night shooting. You already dont get to the free throw line much because you shoot more outside shots and add in lack of defense and you get what you get. No team his going to be hot shooting every night but that is what Oates is depending on. You cant just out score everyone and theres nothing to fall back on if the shots arent falling. Maybe he will get lucky one year and his team will be hot for 6 straight games but I doubt it
Eventually you are going to have an off night shooting. You already dont get to the free throw line much because you shoot more outside shots and add in lack of defense and you get what you get. No team his going to be hot shooting every night but that is what Oates is depending on. You cant just out score everyone and theres nothing to fall back on if the shots arent falling. Maybe he will get lucky one year and his team will be hot for 6 straight games but I doubt it
This post was edited on 3/30/25 at 10:33 am
Posted on 3/30/25 at 12:20 pm to swinetime
quote:
the old adage is still true offense wins game defense wins championships.
Don't think that's true. Not going to go back and check Kenpom for every year but pretty sure most champions have had a higher ranked offense than defense. I'd rather have a top 5-10 offense and a 15-20 ranked defense than the opposite.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 1:18 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
Nah. We weren't making any shots. Not just threes. We even missed uncontested dunks. Just a bad shooting night all around. Seems they took too much away from the BYU game. Is what it is. I'm fine making the elite 8 and getting bounced by the team that will probably win it all.
You scored .75 pts per position when you shot a three.
You scored .9 pts per position when you shot a two (not including more free throw attempts that would have been created).
This does not factor in offensive rebounds.
The math says Alabama died by the three last night.
Posted on 3/30/25 at 1:37 pm to Hawglicious
A lot of Billy Donovan teams (06 and 07 being obvious exceptions) were like that. Specifically the E8 teams 2011/2012/2013.
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