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re: Closer look at UF's offense vs. UGA's defense
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:12 am to boXerrumble
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:12 am to boXerrumble
quote:
Pitts has 35 catches, 391 yards and 4 TDs.
Kmet has 23 catches, 290 yards, and 4 TDs.
Pitts is also taller and faster. So I disagree with you there. Pitts can line up out wide as a WR and is a complete mismatch for a LB or safety.
Kmet also didn’t play in the first 2 games for Notre Dame
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Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:15 am to boXerrumble
quote:
The flee flicker was wide open and Franks missed it on the first play. Franks first INT last year - Franks threw it right to him and completely ignored a wide open checkdown which could've gone for at least 10 yards.
The thing we will never know, though, is was this just Franks making poor throws or was he reacting poorly to what the defense was showing him? Everyone insists on discounting the fact that defensive scheme can bait a QB into doing dumb shite just as much as the QB being dumb himself. I think Trask is an upgrade over Franks with regards to the latter but let’s see how he reacts to Georgia trying to bait him into doing something stupid
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:22 am to boXerrumble
- Florida Run Offense is averaging 99% of opponent YPA allowed
- Florida Pass Offense is averaging 112% of opponent YPA allowed
- Georgia Run Defense is giving up 88% of opponent YPA averaged
- Georgia Pass Defense is giving up 82% of opponent YPA averaged
So if you just did a simplistic netting
- Georgia Run Defense +11% differential vs Florida Run Offense
- Georgia Pass Defense +6% differential vs Florida Pass Offense
On the other end
- Georgia Run Offense is averaging 124% of opponent YPA allowed
- Georgia Pass Offense is averaging 87% of opponent YPA allowed
- Florida Run Defense is giving up 98% of opponent YPA averaged
- Florida Pass Defense is giving up 95% of opponent YPA averaged
simplistic netting
- Georgia Run Offense +22% differential vs Florida Run Defense
- Florida Pass Defense +18% differential vs Georgia Pass Offense
So, interestingly enough, Georgia's plan is probably going to be good ole runs up the center butt again. Obviously it'd be better if they ran creatively, but hard to expect that.
And, obviously, Florida's will be to throw the ball to set up the run like they have all year.
- Florida Pass Offense is averaging 112% of opponent YPA allowed
- Georgia Run Defense is giving up 88% of opponent YPA averaged
- Georgia Pass Defense is giving up 82% of opponent YPA averaged
So if you just did a simplistic netting
- Georgia Run Defense +11% differential vs Florida Run Offense
- Georgia Pass Defense +6% differential vs Florida Pass Offense
On the other end
- Georgia Run Offense is averaging 124% of opponent YPA allowed
- Georgia Pass Offense is averaging 87% of opponent YPA allowed
- Florida Run Defense is giving up 98% of opponent YPA averaged
- Florida Pass Defense is giving up 95% of opponent YPA averaged
simplistic netting
- Georgia Run Offense +22% differential vs Florida Run Defense
- Florida Pass Defense +18% differential vs Georgia Pass Offense
So, interestingly enough, Georgia's plan is probably going to be good ole runs up the center butt again. Obviously it'd be better if they ran creatively, but hard to expect that.
And, obviously, Florida's will be to throw the ball to set up the run like they have all year.
This post was edited on 10/30/19 at 10:24 am
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:24 am to boXerrumble
quote:
Point being, Notre Dame did have some success
You admit that Notre Dame abandoned their run game (168 ypg average) to accept 46 yards rushing against the dawgs.
They trade those rush attempts for an extra 32 yards passing over their season average.
And that is explicit success to you?
You make a great point about the offensive strength of the opponents. Midseason, there are a lot of teams in the same boat.
But you arent helping your case that Notre dame is some sort of blueprint.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:29 am to boXerrumble
quote:
Notre Dame also abandoned the run all together against UGA, only attempting 14 rushes for 46 yards.
IMO, Florida cannot do this. I realize running isn't their strong suit, but its really hard to move the ball consistently if you never even try.
Notre Dame threw for 275 yards, but that isn't nearly enough with that many attempts and when you only run for 46.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:30 am to meansonny
quote:
But you arent helping your case that Notre dame is some sort of blueprint.
Ugh... When did I say it was a blueprint
I brought it up statistically to show how UGA faired against an offense (the only offense really) on their schedule statistically comparable to UF.
I flat out said Notre Dame only scored 17
quote:
You admit that Notre Dame abandoned their run game (168 ypg average) to accept 46 yards rushing against the dawgs.
They had to because their defense couldn't get off the field. UGA held the ball for 35 minutes compared to Notre Dame's 25. I also think Brian Kelly called some really dumb plays at crucial moments.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:31 am to Crowknowsbest
quote:
IMO, Florida cannot do this. I realize running isn't their strong suit, but its really hard to move the ball consistently if you never even try.
Notre Dame threw for 275 yards, but that isn't nearly enough with that many attempts and when you only run for 46.
Agreed. Mullen has never abandoned the running game in any game UF has played this year, despite its lack of success a lot of the time.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:31 am to meansonny
quote:
You admit that Notre Dame abandoned their run game (168 ypg average) to accept 46 yards rushing against the dawgs.
They trade those rush attempts for an extra 32 yards passing over their season average.
And that is explicit success to you?
This. They realistically needed 350+ to win that way without massively winning the turnover battle.
Not impossible, but not likely either.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:32 am to tylerdurden24
quote:
The thing we will never know, though, is was this just Franks making poor throws or was he reacting poorly to what the defense was showing him? Everyone insists on discounting the fact that defensive scheme can bait a QB into doing dumb shite just as much as the QB being dumb himself. I think Trask is an upgrade over Franks with regards to the latter but let’s see how he reacts to Georgia trying to bait him into doing something stupid
I'm gonna go ahead and say after watching Franks for 2+ years, thats just who he is. He flinches at the first sign of pressure. Did that all game against Miami.
EDIT: So yes, part of it is UGAs scheme, but a lot of it is also Franks not grasping the mental part of being QB.
This post was edited on 10/30/19 at 10:33 am
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:34 am to boXerrumble
Georgia shut down Tua in SECcg. UGAs lbers are a lot better this year as well
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
So, interestingly enough, Georgia's plan is probably going to be good ole runs up the center butt again.
Which kinda worries me. UF set the edge very well against Auburn, but struggled when Auburn ran between the tackles (albeit that was really only 1 drive in the 3rd Q).
LSU and South Carolina obviously destroyed UF running inside.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:39 am to boXerrumble
We can analyze this until we are blue in the face and find advantages for both of our teams. Whichever team’s players make big plays will win, have to come up big when it counts
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:40 am to boXerrumble
The name of the game is going to be explosive plays. If Florida can land a few, they’ll win. If they can’t, Georgia will be able to do enough offensively to win a close game.
Which is why I’m not looking forward to writhing in agony for 3.5 hours on Saturday. If Georgia wins it won’t be by a comfortable margin
Which is why I’m not looking forward to writhing in agony for 3.5 hours on Saturday. If Georgia wins it won’t be by a comfortable margin
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:40 am to Dawgfanman
It doesnt adjust for USC losing their QB and UK playing a WR in their QBs place. Its adjust for their yearly data. Which doesn't account for the substantially different offense you faced vs others. I'd say that skewed the stats a decent amount.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:41 am to tylerdurden24
UF is tied for the SEC lead in offensive explosive plays and UGA gives up the fewest explosive plays.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:42 am to Gatorbait2008
Then Florida should win no problem
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:42 am to boXerrumble
We gave up two to vols and peckers
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:44 am to boXerrumble
Which is my point. Whichever side gives on that metric loses. No need to worry about the other stuff.
Mullen has designed his team to hit big plays offensively and create big plays defensively.
Georgia is designed to stop big plays defensively and control the tempo of the game offensively.
Whoever gets their way wins.
Mullen has designed his team to hit big plays offensively and create big plays defensively.
Georgia is designed to stop big plays defensively and control the tempo of the game offensively.
Whoever gets their way wins.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:45 am to boXerrumble
Interesting analysis. Florida is playing well offensively and they should have some success in this game.
The other side is what worries me for Florida. Their D is good but has given some yards rushing lately. Their DL seems to be better suited to pressure the QB than to stop the run. UGA may wear them out late.
The other side is what worries me for Florida. Their D is good but has given some yards rushing lately. Their DL seems to be better suited to pressure the QB than to stop the run. UGA may wear them out late.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:47 am to Mad Dawg 2020
‘ UF has not scored under 24 points on the year ‘
UF has also not scored more than 30 against any FBS team with a winning record this year... and while possible, I’d be surprised if they did it against UGA.
Can UGA score more than 30? Something has to give this Saturday but predicting how these two teams will react is a bit of a fool’s folly.
UF has also not scored more than 30 against any FBS team with a winning record this year... and while possible, I’d be surprised if they did it against UGA.
Can UGA score more than 30? Something has to give this Saturday but predicting how these two teams will react is a bit of a fool’s folly.
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