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Closer look at UF's offense vs. UGA's defense
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:27 am
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:27 am
The intent of this thread is to try to have legitimate football discussion amungst the parade of LSU-Bama threads. UGA fans all offseason loved to talk about statistics too, so I thought I would dive into a few here.
UGA's defense is mighty impressive, both in the front 7 and in the secondary, and it just might be the best defense in the SEC overall, although I would certainly sy Auburn has a legit argument here as well. UGA's defense is currently 4th in SP+ which is first in the SEC. But taking a closer look at the opposition seems to show a few things:
SP+ Offenses of UGA's opponents (Arkansas State and Murray ST excluded):
Vanderbilt - 89
Notre Dame - 22
Tennessee - 79
South Carolina - 69
Kentucky - 80
Looking more closely at SEC opponents...
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee currently rank as the 12th, 13th, and 14th best offenses in the SEC in terms of yards per game. South Carolina is 9th.
In terms of yards per play...
Vanderbilt - 96th (5.0 YPP)
Tennessee - 81st (5.3 YPP)
South Carolina - 109th (4.7 YPP)
Kentucky - 79th (5.3 YPP)
Passing Offense:
Vanderbilt - 90th (208 YPG)
Tennessee - 74th (221 YPG)
South Carolina - 82nd (215 YPG)
Kentucky - 116th (154 YPG)
The best passing offense UGA has played thus far is Notre Dame. Notre Dame is currently 44th (244 YPG).
Notre Dame passed for 275 YPG against UGA, roughly 30 yards above their average. Notre Dame also abandoned the run all together against UGA, only attempting 14 rushes for 46 yards. Their TE, considered one of the best in the country, Cole Kmet, had 9 catches for 108 yards and TD.
Also worthy of note, UGA faced backup QBs against Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina for good portions of the game (in UK's case, the entire game against a WR playing QB).
Looking at UF's offense now (rated 19th in SP+), lets look at the SP+ defenses that UF has played (Towson and UT-Martin excluded):
Miami - 15th
Kentucky - 43rd
Tennessee - 34th
Auburn - 10th
LSU - 20th
South Carolina - 28th
Looking more closely at SEC opponents...
Yards Per Play (Defense):
Auburn - 20th (4.7 YPP)
LSU - 15th (4.5 YPP)
Kentucky - 62nd (5.5 YPP)
Tennessee - 58th (5.4 YPP)
South Carolina - 73rd (5.6 YPP)
Passing Defense (YPG)
Auburn - 72nd (237 YPG)
LSU - 49th (215 YPG)
Kentucky - 17th (181 YPG)
Tennessee - 74th (239 YPG)
South Carolina - 106th (273 YPG)
UF is currently 6th in total offense in the SEC (420 YPG), 3rd in passing offense (277 YPG), and 11th in rushing offense (142 YPG). In terms of YPP, UF is 48th at 5.8 YPP.
UF seems to have gone against much tougher competition to put up its statistics on offense than UGA has to put up its statistics on defense.
UF has not scored under 24 points on the year, and UGA has not given up more than 17 points all year. Will be interesting to see which trend breaks on Saturday.
UGA's defense is mighty impressive, both in the front 7 and in the secondary, and it just might be the best defense in the SEC overall, although I would certainly sy Auburn has a legit argument here as well. UGA's defense is currently 4th in SP+ which is first in the SEC. But taking a closer look at the opposition seems to show a few things:
SP+ Offenses of UGA's opponents (Arkansas State and Murray ST excluded):
Vanderbilt - 89
Notre Dame - 22
Tennessee - 79
South Carolina - 69
Kentucky - 80
Looking more closely at SEC opponents...
Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee currently rank as the 12th, 13th, and 14th best offenses in the SEC in terms of yards per game. South Carolina is 9th.
In terms of yards per play...
Vanderbilt - 96th (5.0 YPP)
Tennessee - 81st (5.3 YPP)
South Carolina - 109th (4.7 YPP)
Kentucky - 79th (5.3 YPP)
Passing Offense:
Vanderbilt - 90th (208 YPG)
Tennessee - 74th (221 YPG)
South Carolina - 82nd (215 YPG)
Kentucky - 116th (154 YPG)
The best passing offense UGA has played thus far is Notre Dame. Notre Dame is currently 44th (244 YPG).
Notre Dame passed for 275 YPG against UGA, roughly 30 yards above their average. Notre Dame also abandoned the run all together against UGA, only attempting 14 rushes for 46 yards. Their TE, considered one of the best in the country, Cole Kmet, had 9 catches for 108 yards and TD.
Also worthy of note, UGA faced backup QBs against Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina for good portions of the game (in UK's case, the entire game against a WR playing QB).
Looking at UF's offense now (rated 19th in SP+), lets look at the SP+ defenses that UF has played (Towson and UT-Martin excluded):
Miami - 15th
Kentucky - 43rd
Tennessee - 34th
Auburn - 10th
LSU - 20th
South Carolina - 28th
Looking more closely at SEC opponents...
Yards Per Play (Defense):
Auburn - 20th (4.7 YPP)
LSU - 15th (4.5 YPP)
Kentucky - 62nd (5.5 YPP)
Tennessee - 58th (5.4 YPP)
South Carolina - 73rd (5.6 YPP)
Passing Defense (YPG)
Auburn - 72nd (237 YPG)
LSU - 49th (215 YPG)
Kentucky - 17th (181 YPG)
Tennessee - 74th (239 YPG)
South Carolina - 106th (273 YPG)
UF is currently 6th in total offense in the SEC (420 YPG), 3rd in passing offense (277 YPG), and 11th in rushing offense (142 YPG). In terms of YPP, UF is 48th at 5.8 YPP.
UF seems to have gone against much tougher competition to put up its statistics on offense than UGA has to put up its statistics on defense.
UF has not scored under 24 points on the year, and UGA has not given up more than 17 points all year. Will be interesting to see which trend breaks on Saturday.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:31 am to boXerrumble
quote:
UF has not scored under 24 points on the year, and UGA has not given up more than 17 points all year. Will be interesting to see which trend breaks on Saturday.
Won't be shocked if both are broken.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:37 am to boXerrumble
quote:
Also worthy of note, UGA faced backup QBs against Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina for good portions of the game (in UK's case, the entire game against a WR playing QB).
Is Franks playing Saturday?
How come I anticipate Auburn fans claiming that UGA only beats backup QBs.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:38 am to boXerrumble
Just curious. Can you expand on your point about Notre Dame?
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:39 am to meansonny
Trask shouldn't be mentioned as a backup at all. Hes been starting since the 2nd week in September, and has outperformed Franks with his QB play.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:39 am to boXerrumble
quote:
UF seems to have gone against much tougher competition to put up its statistics on offense than UGA has to put up its statistics on defense.
This fact is already adjusted for in the SP+ rankings
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:43 am to boXerrumble
quote:
Trask shouldn't be mentioned as a backup at all. Hes been starting since the 2nd week in September, and has outperformed Franks with his QB play.
That's not what Auburn will be saying.
As a matter of fact, tennessee preferred their backup as well.
Kentucky's backup put up 278 yards of offense in their sec win before playing the Dawgs. There are times when teams prefer their backups (uga 2017)
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:43 am to Dawgfanman
Agreed, and I already stated that I believe that UGA's defense is best (or 2nd best with Auburn, could go either way because Auburn's front 7 is that good).
But statistically, UGA has faced the 3 worst teams in the SEC offensively, which does help their stats, especially considering the time spent against backup QBs.
EDIT: Looking up the SOS and SOR...
SOS:
UF - 6th
UGA - 30th
SOR:
UF - 5th
UGA - 16th
But statistically, UGA has faced the 3 worst teams in the SEC offensively, which does help their stats, especially considering the time spent against backup QBs.
EDIT: Looking up the SOS and SOR...
SOS:
UF - 6th
UGA - 30th
SOR:
UF - 5th
UGA - 16th
This post was edited on 10/30/19 at 9:48 am
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:49 am to boXerrumble
A couple of other stats to add on to yours.
UGA is first in the conference in not allowing big plays. Only 38 plays of 10+ yards and 12 plays of 20+ yards. I'm sure our competition level has played into that but it's still pretty damn telling that we're playing solid defense.
You can see below who our best players are in coverage. Thankfully we get Tyson Campbell back this week which will be big for our pass defense.
UGA is first in the conference in not allowing big plays. Only 38 plays of 10+ yards and 12 plays of 20+ yards. I'm sure our competition level has played into that but it's still pretty damn telling that we're playing solid defense.
You can see below who our best players are in coverage. Thankfully we get Tyson Campbell back this week which will be big for our pass defense.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:49 am to boXerrumble
It might depend on which version of Trask shows up. If the version that played in Baton Rouge appears, Florida probably wins.
If the version that played at SC shows up, I think UGA wins.
Basically, if it doesn’t rain I’d go with UF. If it does, UGA.
If the version that played at SC shows up, I think UGA wins.
Basically, if it doesn’t rain I’d go with UF. If it does, UGA.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:49 am to boXerrumble
quote:
But statistically, UGA has faced the 3 worst teams in the SEC offensively, which does help their stats, especially considering the time spent against backup QBs.
It doesn’t help or hurt the SP+ stats.
They are adjusted for opponents.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:50 am to meansonny
quote:
Kentucky's backup put up 278 yards of offense in their sec win before playing the Dawgs. There are times when teams prefer their backups (uga 2017)
And its important to note that was against Arkansas - statistically the 2nd to last defense in the SEC, and Arkansas might have worse talent on defense than Kentucky, Tenenssee, and Vanderbilt at this point.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:51 am to 00 Tech Grad
quote:
It might depend on which version of Trask shows up. If the version that played in Baton Rouge appears, Florida probably wins.
If the version that played at SC shows up, I think UGA wins.
Basically, if it doesn’t rain I’d go with UF. If it does, UGA.
I think rain certainly affected Trask in the first half against South Carolina. But he adjusted in the 2nd half, and made his biggest throws late.
But I think to your point if Trask is inaccurate or off early, it would be much more difficult to come back from a deficit against UGA than opposed to South Carolina.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:52 am to boXerrumble
that's a lot of words and numbers just to say UGA is soft.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:56 am to boXerrumble
quote:
And its important to note that was against Arkansas - statistically the 2nd to last defense in the SEC, and Arkansas might have worse talent on defense than Kentucky, Tenenssee, and Vanderbilt at this point.
The point is that they weren't crying for their starter going into the game. Just like you. Just like tennessee after their game. Just like UGA in 2017.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:56 am to meansonny
quote:
Just curious. Can you expand on your point about Notre Dame
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:59 am to meansonny
Point being, Notre Dame did have some success (and also they are the best passing offense UGA has faced thus far) against UGA's secondary.
Notre Dame's offense statistically is probably the only offense comparable to UF's that UGA has faced thus far.
Having said that UGA still held Notre Dame to only 17 points, which I noted in the OP.
I think UF could have some success if not more than Notre Dame did due to the athletes UF has at TE and WR.
I also think Mullen is a much better playcaller and can scheme matchup advantages better than Brian Kelly.
Notre Dame's offense statistically is probably the only offense comparable to UF's that UGA has faced thus far.
Having said that UGA still held Notre Dame to only 17 points, which I noted in the OP.
I think UF could have some success if not more than Notre Dame did due to the athletes UF has at TE and WR.
I also think Mullen is a much better playcaller and can scheme matchup advantages better than Brian Kelly.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:03 am to boXerrumble
quote:
Point being, Notre Dame did have some success
They mainly hit us on the underneath crossing routes that we rallied up to for short gains.
quote:
I think UF could have some success if not more than Notre Dame did due to the athletes UF has at TE and WR
The ND TE might be the best in the nation this year. UF has the better set of WRs though.
quote:
I also think Mullen is a much better playcaller and can scheme matchup advantages better than Brian Kelly.
I'm not sold on that after watching both multiple times against UGA but that's just my opinion.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:09 am to boXerrumble
I guess it looks like a rather easy win for the Gators.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 10:09 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
They mainly hit us on the underneath crossing routes that we rallied up to for short gains.
The crossing routes are something that Trask hits regularly (as well as the dig routes in the middle) that Franks did not.
quote:
The ND TE might be the best in the nation this year. UF has the better set of WRs though.
Pitts has 35 catches, 391 yards and 4 TDs.
Kmet has 23 catches, 290 yards, and 4 TDs.
Pitts is also taller and faster. So I disagree with you there. Pitts can line up out wide as a WR and is a complete mismatch for a LB or safety.
quote:
I'm not sold on that after watching both multiple times against UGA but that's just my opinion.
Franks missed throw after throw last year, with guys wide open. Its not a scheme problem for Mullen.
The flee flicker was wide open and Franks missed it on the first play. Franks first INT last year - Franks threw it right to him and completely ignored a wide open checkdown which could've gone for at least 10 yards.
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