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Bubble Watch
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:47 am
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:47 am
It appears Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Missouri have wrapped up bids... joining Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky as NCAA Tournament locks.
Meanwhile Georgia, South Carolina, and LSU have continued our inability to get into the discussion, joining Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in needing a St. Louis miracle to somehow make it to the Big Dance.
That means heading into the final weekend of SEC Basketball before the post-season, Alabama and Mississippi State are really the only two bubble teams in the league.
What would it take for these two to make the field?
ALABAMA
*I am one of the few here on tRant that actually thinks Bama is in the Tournament field at the moment. Lunardi currently projects them in the field and not even having to play in Dayton.... CBS Bracketology has them as the last team in the field, playing in Dayton.
*Aside from losing Wednesday to Florida, Bama has also been hurt this week by many of their opponents also falling in the NCAA's Quadrant Rankings:
- Memphis inexplicably lost to South Florida by 24 points and dropped in the RPI from #96 to #117. This moves Bama's win over Memphis from a Quadrant 2 win to a Quadrant 3 win.
-Georgia collapsed in the final 2 minutes at home against Texas A&M, moving us backwards in the RPI down to #78. This means Bama's loss in Athens is now a Quadrant 2 loss instead of a Quadrant 1 loss.
-UCF is also dangerously close to falling below the #75 RPI threashold. They lost to Wichita State last night and have fallen to #71. If UCF falls 5 more spots, it would give Bama a second Quadrant 3 loss which could be detrimental to their overall resume. Bama fans really need to be rooting for UCF to stay above that #75 RPI threshold.
*Ultimately I think Bama needs one more win to secure a bid. That could come this weekend in College Station, or it could come next week in St. Louis. But I believe one more win probably gets them to Dayton.... two more wins would lock them into the field and probably help them avoid the play-in game.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
*State has been one of the "First 8 Out" seemingly for weeks. Their weakness is their abominable scheduling which includes EIGHT wins against Quadrant 4 opponents (compare that to Alabama only playing 2 such opponents).
*State's main argument for a bid will be their conference record in one of, if not the very best conference this year. A win Saturday would move them to 10-8 in SEC play, and its rare for a team with that good of an SEC record to be left out.
*I believe State not only has to win Saturday against LSU, but they also need to win at least 2 games in St. Louis. Hypothetically speaking, it would likely mean them beating LSU in Baton Rouge Saturday... then beating a team like LSU again in St. Louis on Thursday.... then beating a team like Kentucky in St. Louis on Friday.... and then losing to a team like Tennessee in St. Louis on Saturday. If that scenario played our, RPI Wizard shows Mississippi State's RPI moving up from its current position of #66 to #56. Their SOS would move from #94 all the way up to #79. Most importantly it would give the Bulldogs a 10-8 SEC regular season record and a 12-9 overall record against SEC teams, including the Tournament.
One additional thing that would help State is for Alabama to eliminate themselves. I don't believe the committee will allow 9 SEC teams, so for State's sake, they need Bama to be out of the discussion.
Meanwhile Georgia, South Carolina, and LSU have continued our inability to get into the discussion, joining Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in needing a St. Louis miracle to somehow make it to the Big Dance.
That means heading into the final weekend of SEC Basketball before the post-season, Alabama and Mississippi State are really the only two bubble teams in the league.
What would it take for these two to make the field?
ALABAMA
*I am one of the few here on tRant that actually thinks Bama is in the Tournament field at the moment. Lunardi currently projects them in the field and not even having to play in Dayton.... CBS Bracketology has them as the last team in the field, playing in Dayton.
*Aside from losing Wednesday to Florida, Bama has also been hurt this week by many of their opponents also falling in the NCAA's Quadrant Rankings:
- Memphis inexplicably lost to South Florida by 24 points and dropped in the RPI from #96 to #117. This moves Bama's win over Memphis from a Quadrant 2 win to a Quadrant 3 win.
-Georgia collapsed in the final 2 minutes at home against Texas A&M, moving us backwards in the RPI down to #78. This means Bama's loss in Athens is now a Quadrant 2 loss instead of a Quadrant 1 loss.
-UCF is also dangerously close to falling below the #75 RPI threashold. They lost to Wichita State last night and have fallen to #71. If UCF falls 5 more spots, it would give Bama a second Quadrant 3 loss which could be detrimental to their overall resume. Bama fans really need to be rooting for UCF to stay above that #75 RPI threshold.
*Ultimately I think Bama needs one more win to secure a bid. That could come this weekend in College Station, or it could come next week in St. Louis. But I believe one more win probably gets them to Dayton.... two more wins would lock them into the field and probably help them avoid the play-in game.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
*State has been one of the "First 8 Out" seemingly for weeks. Their weakness is their abominable scheduling which includes EIGHT wins against Quadrant 4 opponents (compare that to Alabama only playing 2 such opponents).
*State's main argument for a bid will be their conference record in one of, if not the very best conference this year. A win Saturday would move them to 10-8 in SEC play, and its rare for a team with that good of an SEC record to be left out.
*I believe State not only has to win Saturday against LSU, but they also need to win at least 2 games in St. Louis. Hypothetically speaking, it would likely mean them beating LSU in Baton Rouge Saturday... then beating a team like LSU again in St. Louis on Thursday.... then beating a team like Kentucky in St. Louis on Friday.... and then losing to a team like Tennessee in St. Louis on Saturday. If that scenario played our, RPI Wizard shows Mississippi State's RPI moving up from its current position of #66 to #56. Their SOS would move from #94 all the way up to #79. Most importantly it would give the Bulldogs a 10-8 SEC regular season record and a 12-9 overall record against SEC teams, including the Tournament.
One additional thing that would help State is for Alabama to eliminate themselves. I don't believe the committee will allow 9 SEC teams, so for State's sake, they need Bama to be out of the discussion.
8
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
I just want to see how serious the committee is on this Quad system
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
alabama cant lose out. it looks like they have a good chance at two shots at a&m within the next week. win one of those and they are in barring some weird shite happens in other conference tourneys
dont know about MSU
dont know about MSU
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:54 am to BHMKyle
quote:
for State's sake, they need Bama to be out of the discussion
Sorry Bama
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:54 am to WestCoastAg
yea i think bama is about to go 1-1 against A&M this week and that gets them in. State needs a deep run in the SECT though, committee usually frowns on teams that dont challenge themselves in OOC
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:58 am to BHMKyle
quote:
One additional thing that would help State is for Alabama to eliminate themselves.
We're all over it
Posted on 3/2/18 at 11:59 am to Uncle Gunnysack
Honestly though, what has A&M done to lock up an NCAAT spot? One of the strangest things I've seen. Despite how mediocre they've played during SEC play, they've still managed to be considered a lock. Honestly Mississippi State deserves that spot more.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:04 pm to lsudave1
OOC play, not that hard
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:04 pm to lsudave1
quote:
Honestly though, what has A&M done to lock up an NCAAT spot?
I guess your bball season starts when SEC play starts.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:06 pm to lsudave1
quote:LSU posters everyone
Honestly though, what has A&M done to lock up an NCAAT spot? One of the strangest things I've seen. Despite how mediocre they've played during SEC play, they've still managed to be considered a lock. Honestly Mississippi State deserves that spot more.
This post was edited on 3/2/18 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:17 pm to lsudave1
quote:
Honestly though, what has A&M done to lock up an NCAAT spot?
Gone 6-3 since the Big 12 Challenge.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:20 pm to BHMKyle
It feels like forever since we weren't a bubble team. Good luck to those who are on the bubble this year because it's a pain in the arse.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:21 pm to lsudave1
quote:
Honestly Mississippi State deserves that spot more.
You've got to be kidding me. I agree that if you take a step back from A&M and Alabama's resumes, there isn't much of a difference.... but Mississippi State's is far worse.
QUADRANT 1 Wins:
5- Alabama
5- Texas A&M
3- Mississippi St.
QUADRANT 1 & 2 Wins:
12- Texas A&M
10- Alabama
6- Mississippi St.
Texas A&M literally has double the number of Quadrant 1 & 2 wins compared to State.... there's your main difference.
Also, State's schedule was horrific...
Quadrant 4 Teams Played:
2- Alabama
4- Texas A&M
8- Mississippi State
The reason Texas A&M is nearly a lock is because not only do they have an adequate resume, but their Quadrant 1 games played were against some very highly rated teams, almost exclusively away from home.
Texas A&M played 12 Quadrant 1 games and only two were in College Station.... they won both of those (vs. #16 Kentucky and #27 Arkansas).
They won on the road at #7 Auburn.... Auburn's only home loss of the season. And in OOC play they played at #4 Kansas, vs. #17 Arizona, vs. #29 West Virginia, and at #32 USC..... going 2-2 in those matchups.
Mississippi State played only one OOC Quadrant 1 or 2 opponent, and they were destroyed at #10 Cincinnati.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:39 pm to BHMKyle
Mizzou is still on bubble watch...
Work to do
Missouri (19-11, 9-8 SEC)
(BPI: 50 | SOS: 45 | SOR: 45 | RPI: 37)
Trailing at halftime against Vanderbilt on Tuesday, Missouri's tournament prospects were as bleak as they had been in weeks. A 44-point second half ensured a Tigers win, and though they aren't in the clear entirely, a win at home Saturday would remove all doubt.
Conversely, a loss to the Hogs wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic as long as Missouri makes a decent showing in the SEC tournament.
Alabama (17-13, 8-9 SEC)
(BPI: 54 | SOS: 38 | SOR: 62 | RPI: 57)
Alabama is living dangerously. The Crimson Tide lost home games to Arkansas and Florida, the latter by 21 points. Now, at 8-9 in SEC play and clinging to the No. 10-seed line in projected brackets, they will go to Texas A&M for their regular-season finale.
A win in College Station would fix a good deal of what ails the Tide. A .500 record in the SEC with a season sweep of the Aggies, to go along with a win at Florida and wins at home against Auburn and Tennessee, is certainly bid-worthy on paper.
Mississippi State (21-9, 9-8 SEC)
(BPI: 64 | SOS: 69 | SOR: 49 | RPI: 65)
The Bulldogs are tenaciously holding on to their spot on Lunardi's "next four out" list, but as March dawns, the obstacles between this team and the field of 68 appear formidable. Can Mississippi State earn one of the last at-large bids with anything short of a run to the SEC tournament title game? Good question.
MSU's regular-season finale at LSU falls just outside the Quadrant 1 window, though a win there would at least give it an impressive 10-8 finish in conference play. There's still work to do
Work to do
Missouri (19-11, 9-8 SEC)
(BPI: 50 | SOS: 45 | SOR: 45 | RPI: 37)
Trailing at halftime against Vanderbilt on Tuesday, Missouri's tournament prospects were as bleak as they had been in weeks. A 44-point second half ensured a Tigers win, and though they aren't in the clear entirely, a win at home Saturday would remove all doubt.
Conversely, a loss to the Hogs wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic as long as Missouri makes a decent showing in the SEC tournament.
Alabama (17-13, 8-9 SEC)
(BPI: 54 | SOS: 38 | SOR: 62 | RPI: 57)
Alabama is living dangerously. The Crimson Tide lost home games to Arkansas and Florida, the latter by 21 points. Now, at 8-9 in SEC play and clinging to the No. 10-seed line in projected brackets, they will go to Texas A&M for their regular-season finale.
A win in College Station would fix a good deal of what ails the Tide. A .500 record in the SEC with a season sweep of the Aggies, to go along with a win at Florida and wins at home against Auburn and Tennessee, is certainly bid-worthy on paper.
Mississippi State (21-9, 9-8 SEC)
(BPI: 64 | SOS: 69 | SOR: 49 | RPI: 65)
The Bulldogs are tenaciously holding on to their spot on Lunardi's "next four out" list, but as March dawns, the obstacles between this team and the field of 68 appear formidable. Can Mississippi State earn one of the last at-large bids with anything short of a run to the SEC tournament title game? Good question.
MSU's regular-season finale at LSU falls just outside the Quadrant 1 window, though a win there would at least give it an impressive 10-8 finish in conference play. There's still work to do
Posted on 3/2/18 at 12:49 pm to allin2010
quote:
Mizzou is still on bubble watch...
I mean if they were to lose to #27 RPI Arkansas, I don't think it would really hurt their standing at all. They'd still be firmly in the field, IMO.
If they were to lose Saturday and then lose to a team like Ole Miss, Vandy, Georgia, South Carolina, or LSU on Thursday in St. Louis, then yeah that might make them sweat it out on Selection Sunday, but I still think they'd probably make the Last 4 in and play in Dayton.
Honestly the same could be said for Texas A&M..... lose to Bama at home and then lose to Bama again in St. Louis on Thursday, and it would be very difficult to keep Bama below a team they would have beat 3 times during the season. I think something like that could cause A&M to fall back right on the bubble.
But I do believe A&M and Mizzou are probably at worst playing in Dayton. It would take both of them losing their next 2 games and them seeing a lot of upsets in conference tournament championship games, taking away the number of at-large bids for either to miss the Tournament.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 1:06 pm to BHMKyle
Kind of surprised that Mississippi State is still so low on the bubble. If they end up with a winning record in conference play, I think they've done enough there to earn a bid.
I would think Alabama has to win at TAMU to make the tournament, barring a miracle in SECT play. Alabama has the talent to make such a run though.
I would think Alabama has to win at TAMU to make the tournament, barring a miracle in SECT play. Alabama has the talent to make such a run though.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 1:06 pm to DiafGtfo
quote:
Alabama has the talent to make such a run though.
No we don't
Posted on 3/2/18 at 1:09 pm to WestCoastAg
All LSU knows is that they beat A&M so, therefore, they much be better and can't understand anything else.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 1:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Alabama does have several players that are talented but Avery has done a terrible job getting them to play as a team. It was my concern preseason was could Johnson blend a young and talented team together and in that area he has failed miserably. I said it then and I still believe it today that next year's team will be much better even without Sexton due to everyone being a year older. It's overlooked by a lot but losing Norris hurt more than a stat sheet could ever show.
Posted on 3/2/18 at 1:42 pm to DiafGtfo
quote:
If they end up with a winning record in conference play, I think they've done enough there to earn a bid.
Nah... they have just 3 Quadrant 1 wins, and two of those are to teams that are dangerously close to falling back to Quadrant 2:
#27 Arkansas in Starkville. If Arky loses this weekend and falls below RPI #30, that would drop this one to a Q2 win.
#70 S. Carolina in Columbia. If Carolina loses at Auburn this weekend, they may stay just barely above the #75 threshold, but it could be close. If the Gamecocks fall to #76 or lower between now and Selection Sunday, this too falls to just a Quadrant 2 win.
There is a chance that State could enter Selection Sunday with just one Quadrant 1 win..... that's not even remotely close to deserving a bid.
quote:
I would think Alabama has to win at TAMU to make the tournament, barring a miracle in SECT play. Alabama has the talent to make such a run though.
Agreed. One win is all it takes. Either Saturday or Thursday in St. Louis. Do that and Alabama is likely at the very least playing in Dayton. And you are right about them having the talent to do it.... they have 5 Quadrant 1 wins already, and that doesn't count beating a team like Oklahoma. The talent is there. I think Alabama is actually the team most likely to make an unexpected run the NCAA Tournament. No one will be surprised if Tennessee or Auburn makes a run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, but I think Bama as a 10 seed would be a cinderella. I think they are more likely to make that type of run than Mizzou, Arkansas, etc. Of course it all depends on the bracket.
This post was edited on 3/2/18 at 2:01 pm
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