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re: Bracketology Update
Posted on 12/10/18 at 12:45 pm to TailbackU
Posted on 12/10/18 at 12:45 pm to TailbackU
quote:
How can they possibly know? Bracketology is silly at this point in the season.
Because the number of teams a conference gets in, is mainly determined before Conference play starts.
This post was edited on 12/10/18 at 12:49 pm
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Posted on 12/10/18 at 1:58 pm to sand mountainDvalues
quote:
It’ll take a great showing in the BIG 12/SEC for us to get 5+ imo, just an awful year for the conference as a whole in OOC play.
It's only going to get worse with the Big 12 Challenge. Whoever in the SEC office agreed to the terms of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge should be fired.
Somehow three of the SEC's five best teams are not participating in the Challenge.... that puts the league at a huge disadvantage. If our 10 best teams played their 10 best teams with it evenly paired, #1 vs. #1, #2 vs. #2, etc.... I think we could probably split and go 5-5. But when you take 3 of our 5 best teams out of the challenge, it creates a huge disadvantage.
I believe we'll go 1-9 as a league with Tennessee being the lone winner.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:04 pm to BHMKyle
Thread title is a little misleading, Bracketology is lunardi's thing. Should have put in teamrankings projected field in title.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:05 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Thread title is a little misleading, Bracketology is lunardi's thing. Should have put in teamrankings projected field in title.
This is exactly what I thought, was surprised he had released another one
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:06 pm to rockiee
Yeah I know he just did one last Tuesday, figured we wouldnt see another one till tomorrow.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:07 pm to thunderbird1100
No point in my weekly one now I guess
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:11 pm to BHMKyle
Here is my projection at this point in the season, first with how I think conference play will look:
1. Auburn- 16-2; 28-3
2. Tennessee- 16-2; 28-3
3. Kentucky- 14-4; 22-9
4. Miss St- 13-5; 25-6
5. Arkansas- 13-5; 23-8
6. LSU- 11-7; 21-10
7. Florida- 10-8; 18-13
8. Alabama- 7-11; 16-15
9. Ole Miss- 6-12; 16-15
10. Missouri- 5-13; 13-17
11. Texas A&M- 5-13; 12-18
12. S. Carolina- 4-14; 9-22
13. Vanderbilt- 3-15; 11-20
14. Georgia- 3-15; 11-20
And therefore this is how I see the Post Season looking... let' s just assume Tennessee gets revenge on Auburn and wins the SEC Tournament final over the Tigers):
1-seed: Tennessee
2-seed: Auburn
6-seed: Mississippi St.
7-seed: Kentucky
9-seed: Arkansas
11-seed: LSU (perhaps the play-in game)
NIT: Florida
That's probably best-case scenario for the SEC. This assumes Kentucky gets it together in January and is able to go 14-4 in conference play.
FYI, Arkansas is fortunate in that they play a very easy SEC slate.... only getting Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida each just once.
The teams they face twice are all at the bottom except for LSU (Texas A&M, Vandy, Missouri, and LSU). That gives them a pretty decent shot of winning 12 to 13 SEC games. That conference record coupled with the win over Indiana should get them in, IMO.
1. Auburn- 16-2; 28-3
2. Tennessee- 16-2; 28-3
3. Kentucky- 14-4; 22-9
4. Miss St- 13-5; 25-6
5. Arkansas- 13-5; 23-8
6. LSU- 11-7; 21-10
7. Florida- 10-8; 18-13
8. Alabama- 7-11; 16-15
9. Ole Miss- 6-12; 16-15
10. Missouri- 5-13; 13-17
11. Texas A&M- 5-13; 12-18
12. S. Carolina- 4-14; 9-22
13. Vanderbilt- 3-15; 11-20
14. Georgia- 3-15; 11-20
And therefore this is how I see the Post Season looking... let' s just assume Tennessee gets revenge on Auburn and wins the SEC Tournament final over the Tigers):
1-seed: Tennessee
2-seed: Auburn
6-seed: Mississippi St.
7-seed: Kentucky
9-seed: Arkansas
11-seed: LSU (perhaps the play-in game)
NIT: Florida
That's probably best-case scenario for the SEC. This assumes Kentucky gets it together in January and is able to go 14-4 in conference play.
FYI, Arkansas is fortunate in that they play a very easy SEC slate.... only getting Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida each just once.
The teams they face twice are all at the bottom except for LSU (Texas A&M, Vandy, Missouri, and LSU). That gives them a pretty decent shot of winning 12 to 13 SEC games. That conference record coupled with the win over Indiana should get them in, IMO.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:12 pm to BHMKyle
2/3 of the league being pissed and negative about their basketball program seems a lot more familiar than the last few years. All that positivity was awkward.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:16 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
5. Arkansas- 13-5; 23-8
Yes, Please
I think we peak at 11 wins in the league.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:18 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
That conference record coupled with the win over Indiana should get them in, IMO.
It isn't a great OOC but if we only lose to Texas, Western Kentucky and Texas Tech. Only one of those should be a bad loss come tournament time. Have four more games before conference starts and is really crucial with take care of business in all four.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:20 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Thread title is a little misleading, Bracketology is lunardi's thing. Should have put in teamrankings projected field in title.
Not really Lunardi may have first coined the term, "Bracketology" but it is widely regarded now as a projection of the NCAA Tournament and is used my multiple sites in addition to ESPN.... CBS Sports for example also calls their projections "Bracketology"
This post was edited on 12/10/18 at 2:26 pm
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:25 pm to rockiee
quote:
Yes, Please
I think we peak at 11 wins in the league.
In my projections, I assumed Arkansas would win these games:
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Mississippi St.
Missouri
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
at Missouri
at South Carolina
at Texas A&M
at Vanderbilt
None of those are all that far-fetched to me. These would be the projected losses:
at Auburn
at Kentucky
at LSU
at Ole Miss
at Tennessee
Like I said, its a very formidable conference schedule.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:30 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
None of those are all that far-fetched to me.
No, I wouldn't say far-fetched, I just don't expect to win all those road games even though they are very winnable games and probably favored in them. Although we are very good at home, we will still most likely slip up at least once.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:30 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Alabama- 17.2% chance
Doesn't look like the Arizona win did squat for our chances.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 2:44 pm to BHMKyle
You've got Vandy way way too low. They should win close to 50% of league games, give or take.
Also I think while Arkansas has certainly looked good, I just dont see 13-5 in the conference as feasible. I think the youth and lack of depth will hurt them as the season goes on.
Also I think while Arkansas has certainly looked good, I just dont see 13-5 in the conference as feasible. I think the youth and lack of depth will hurt them as the season goes on.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 3:02 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
You've got Vandy way way too low. They should win close to 50% of league games, give or take.
Vandy is the opposite of Arkansas in that they likely play the toughest league schedule. They draw Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee each twice.
I have them winning the following games:
Alabama
Ole Miss
South Carolina
And I have them losing the following:
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida
Kentucky
Mississippi St.
Tennessee
at Alabama
at Arkansas
at Florida
at Georgia
at Kentucky
at LSU
at Missouri
at Tennessee
at Texas A&M
It's hard to win on the road in the SEC. I have Vandy losing each road game which automatically means they have 9 SEC losses. But when you have home games against Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, and Mississippi State... not to mention Florida and Arkansas, it leaves very few "winnable" games.
I agree Vandy is not a bad team, but it will take a miracle for them to get to 9-9 in league play with that schedule.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 3:03 pm to skrayper
quote:
Doesn't look like the Arizona win did squat for our chances.
A home win means nothing compared to 3 losses to the little sisters of the poor
Posted on 12/10/18 at 3:07 pm to BHMKyle
On the bubble feels really good based on where we were a couple years ago. Maybe this won’t be the year, but I feel strongly that our coach will have tournament level teams for years to come.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 3:07 pm to skrayper
quote:
Doesn't look like the Arizona win did squat for our chances.
Arizona was a solid win for Bama, but Arizona isn't good enough for it to be a huge resume booster either. In all likelihood, Bama and Arizona will both be "Bubble" type teams for the majority of the season. The good news is that if both teams are on the bubble on Selection Sunday, Bama has the edge.
Posted on 12/10/18 at 3:08 pm to The Winner
I honestly believe mullenboys cracks his knuckles after hitting reply and says out loud, "Lemme see how NEGATIVELY I can comment on this subject as I want to seem smart without knowing or understanding a damn thing about the topic."
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