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Bama vs. Top 50 Opponents- UPDATE
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:34 am
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:34 am
There is no longer an issue of having a small sample... Alabama has now faced 60% of the Top 50 opponent's they'll play during the 2017 regular season. Here are Bama's Top 50 opponents this year in the ESPN FPI rankings:
#8 Auburn- TBD
#17 Miss St.- TBD
#20 LSU- W 24-10
#24 FSU- W 24-3
#43 Texas A&M- W 26-19
Bama's offense continues to be unimpressive against semi-decent opponents. Take a look at how Bama's offense has stacked up relative to other opponents of these Top 50 teams Bama has faced thus far:
FLORIDA STATE OPPONENTS' OFF YARDS/PLAY
6.91- Louisville
5.32- Wake Forest
5.21- NC State
5.08- Duke
4.87- Syracuse
4.62- Miami
4.48- Alabama
4.33- Boston College
TEXAS A&M OPPONENTS' OFF YARDS/PLAY:
6.60- UCLA
6.35- Arkansas
6.28- Auburn
5.46- Florida
5.38- Alabama
5.05- Miss St.
4.98- S. Carolina
LSU OPPONENTS' OFF YARDS/PLAY:
6.55- Miss St.
5.60- Ole Miss
5.59- Florida
5.36- Alabama
5.06- Auburn
4.68- Syracuse
Alabama's offense has performed below average relative to all three of their three toughest opponents' other opponents this season:
*Alabama's offense averaged -1.8% fewer yards per play compared to all of LSU's other P5 opponents.
*Alabama's offense averaged -8.0% fewer yards per play compared to all of Texas A&M's other P5 opponents.
*Alabama's offense averaged -12.9% fewer yards per play compared to all of Florida State's other P5 opponents.
In terms of points scored, Bama is averaging -1.2% (against FSU), -15.5% (against LSU), and -18.6% (against A&M) relative to those teams' other P5 Opponents.
In Total Yards, Bama's performance is most astonishing. Bama's offense produced -15.7% (against A&M), -20.4% (against LSU), and -28.3%* (against Florida State) relative to those teams' other P5 Opponents.
The amazing thing is that against two common opponents (A&M & LSU), FLORIDA'S offense has out-performed Alabama's. FLORIDA'S!
Alabama is still a Top 5 team because of the strength of their defense, and especially their ability to create a huge advantage in terms of Turnover Margin. Bama is +6 in Turnover Margin in just these three games.
I said it last week and I still believe that Bama is capable of beating any team in the country. They certainly have the talent and coaching to beat anyone. But unless this offense improves, I don't see Bama winning a championship this season. They are going to have to get it together if they want a even a shot at one.
#8 Auburn- TBD
#17 Miss St.- TBD
#20 LSU- W 24-10
#24 FSU- W 24-3
#43 Texas A&M- W 26-19
Bama's offense continues to be unimpressive against semi-decent opponents. Take a look at how Bama's offense has stacked up relative to other opponents of these Top 50 teams Bama has faced thus far:
FLORIDA STATE OPPONENTS' OFF YARDS/PLAY
6.91- Louisville
5.32- Wake Forest
5.21- NC State
5.08- Duke
4.87- Syracuse
4.62- Miami
4.48- Alabama
4.33- Boston College
TEXAS A&M OPPONENTS' OFF YARDS/PLAY:
6.60- UCLA
6.35- Arkansas
6.28- Auburn
5.46- Florida
5.38- Alabama
5.05- Miss St.
4.98- S. Carolina
LSU OPPONENTS' OFF YARDS/PLAY:
6.55- Miss St.
5.60- Ole Miss
5.59- Florida
5.36- Alabama
5.06- Auburn
4.68- Syracuse
Alabama's offense has performed below average relative to all three of their three toughest opponents' other opponents this season:
*Alabama's offense averaged -1.8% fewer yards per play compared to all of LSU's other P5 opponents.
*Alabama's offense averaged -8.0% fewer yards per play compared to all of Texas A&M's other P5 opponents.
*Alabama's offense averaged -12.9% fewer yards per play compared to all of Florida State's other P5 opponents.
In terms of points scored, Bama is averaging -1.2% (against FSU), -15.5% (against LSU), and -18.6% (against A&M) relative to those teams' other P5 Opponents.
In Total Yards, Bama's performance is most astonishing. Bama's offense produced -15.7% (against A&M), -20.4% (against LSU), and -28.3%* (against Florida State) relative to those teams' other P5 Opponents.
The amazing thing is that against two common opponents (A&M & LSU), FLORIDA'S offense has out-performed Alabama's. FLORIDA'S!
Alabama is still a Top 5 team because of the strength of their defense, and especially their ability to create a huge advantage in terms of Turnover Margin. Bama is +6 in Turnover Margin in just these three games.
I said it last week and I still believe that Bama is capable of beating any team in the country. They certainly have the talent and coaching to beat anyone. But unless this offense improves, I don't see Bama winning a championship this season. They are going to have to get it together if they want a even a shot at one.
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Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:36 am to BHMKyle
Pre Melt, i like it.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:37 am to BHMKyle
You post this like it's some new thing about Alabama under Saban.
Outside of the Kiffin years, Alabama has never really had a great offense. Even with Ingram, Richardson, and Lacy, their offense was pretty one dimensional. Run the ball and eat clock. Let the Bama Bangs QB hit a few play action passes. Maybe a few roll outs.
And Bama's defense suffocates their opponent. 24-10 against a Top 50 opponent is pretty damn normal under Saban. I'd be interested in their games against Top 50 opponents over the past decade.
Outside of the Kiffin years, Alabama has never really had a great offense. Even with Ingram, Richardson, and Lacy, their offense was pretty one dimensional. Run the ball and eat clock. Let the Bama Bangs QB hit a few play action passes. Maybe a few roll outs.
And Bama's defense suffocates their opponent. 24-10 against a Top 50 opponent is pretty damn normal under Saban. I'd be interested in their games against Top 50 opponents over the past decade.
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 11:39 am
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:38 am to BHMKyle
TLDR
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:40 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Alabama is still a Top 5 team because of the strength of their defense, and especially their ability to create a huge advantage in terms of Turnover Margin. Bama is +6 in Turnover Margin in just these three games.
Because this stat is only dictated by the defense.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:41 am to StringedInstruments
Yeah pretty much this. We’ve won all but one game by at least 14, and aTm rallied to make it an eight point game.
I guess I’ll melt though. If LSU fans can be happy about losing by 14, I can be pissed by not winning every game by 40.
I guess I’ll melt though. If LSU fans can be happy about losing by 14, I can be pissed by not winning every game by 40.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:41 am to StringedInstruments
Best mix of talent and experience on offense was 2010. All it did was lead to 3 losses.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:42 am to StringedInstruments
Agree. And there is nothing wrong with that. Saban should embrace that strategy. He hasn’t won a title since converting to the spread.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:43 am to BHMKyle
Well, Auburn and possibly Georgia should have no problem with Alabama then
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:45 am to BHMKyle
Alabama was beatable before the injuries. I'm now in wait and see mode before I make any predictions as far as making the playoffs goes.
I'm not sure what to expect from this defense moving forward.
I'm not sure what to expect from this defense moving forward.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:46 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Bama's offense continues to be unimpressive against semi-decent opponents.
Yet, they continue to be undefeated.
If UA should win out the regular season and SEC CG with the same poor offensive performance, should they be left out of the CFPs? It seems, as you've described, to be a wasted slot to allow them in with that type of performance on O.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:47 am to BHMKyle
I decided to do the research...and you actually may be on to something, OP. I think I was wrong with my previous post.
Just quick glances here, so I might miss some or put in a bad entry. These are their results against teams ranked at the time of the game in the regular season.
2009
VA Tech 34-24
Ole Miss 22-3
South Carolina 20-6
LSU 24-15
Auburn 26-21
2010
Penn State 24-3
Arkansas 24-20
Florida 31-6
South Carolina 21-35 (loss)
LSU 21-24 (loss)
Auburn 27-28 (loss)
2011
Penn State 27-11
Arkansas 38-14
Florida 38-10
LSU 6-9 (loss)
Auburn 42-14
2012
Michigan 41-14
Miss State 38-7
LSU 21-17
Texas A&M 24-29 (loss)
2013
Texas A&M 49-42
Ole Miss 25-0
LSU 38-17
Auburn 28-34 (loss)
2014
Ole Miss 17-23 (loss)
Texas A&M 59-0
LSU 20-13
Miss State 25-20
Auburn 55-44
2015
Ole Miss 37-43 (loss)
Georgia 38-10
Texas A&M 41-23
LSU 30-16
2016
USC 52-6
Ole Miss 48-43
Arkansas 49-30
Tennessee 49-10
Texas A&M 33-14
LSU 10-0
Auburn 30-12
I actually left out the postseason because they were scoring even more points, which hurt my argument. If I included the postseason games (SECCG, bowl games, playoff games), then their average on offense would be even higher.
Just quick glances here, so I might miss some or put in a bad entry. These are their results against teams ranked at the time of the game in the regular season.
2009
VA Tech 34-24
Ole Miss 22-3
South Carolina 20-6
LSU 24-15
Auburn 26-21
2010
Penn State 24-3
Arkansas 24-20
Florida 31-6
South Carolina 21-35 (loss)
LSU 21-24 (loss)
Auburn 27-28 (loss)
2011
Penn State 27-11
Arkansas 38-14
Florida 38-10
LSU 6-9 (loss)
Auburn 42-14
2012
Michigan 41-14
Miss State 38-7
LSU 21-17
Texas A&M 24-29 (loss)
2013
Texas A&M 49-42
Ole Miss 25-0
LSU 38-17
Auburn 28-34 (loss)
2014
Ole Miss 17-23 (loss)
Texas A&M 59-0
LSU 20-13
Miss State 25-20
Auburn 55-44
2015
Ole Miss 37-43 (loss)
Georgia 38-10
Texas A&M 41-23
LSU 30-16
2016
USC 52-6
Ole Miss 48-43
Arkansas 49-30
Tennessee 49-10
Texas A&M 33-14
LSU 10-0
Auburn 30-12
I actually left out the postseason because they were scoring even more points, which hurt my argument. If I included the postseason games (SECCG, bowl games, playoff games), then their average on offense would be even higher.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:49 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Alabama was beatable before the injuries.
This, getting to the SEC CG at this point is primary goal. Getting there with no more injuries would be even better.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:50 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Alabama is still a Top 5 team because of the strength of their defense, and especially their ability to create a huge advantage in terms of Turnover Margin. Bama is +6 in Turnover Margin in just these three games.
So the formula of getting a comfortable lead, taking care of the football on offense, putting your great defense in good field position, shortening the end of the game, and winning half of the National Championships is still working? Cool.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:50 am to BHMKyle
basically what you are saying is We have a chance.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:58 am to BHMKyle
quote:
BHMKyle
Dude, you really can't be this stupid.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:58 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Alabama was beatable before the injuries. I'm now in wait and see mode before I make any predictions as far as making the playoffs goes.
I'm not sure what to expect from this defense moving forward.
The defensive injuries are definitely a concern. To the OP's point I think the offense has just been doing what is needed and basically not had to take any risks or extend the playbook all year. If the defense starts to slip can the offense pull more of the weight? I still think we basically don't know whether this offense is better, worse or the same as last year. I actually thought Hurts looked a lot better v LSU this year than he did last year so I was encouraged by that. He had a lot of incompletions but going back and looking at each play he actually threw the ball well Saturday and made the right decision on nearly every play.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 11:58 am to BHMKyle
Ask any coach what the key to the game is and he will tell you turnovers. You don't need a flashy offense if you have a good defense. You just need an offense that doesn't turn the ball over and a good punter. Bama is currently 9th in the country in turnover margin. Number one is the SEC. Say what you want about Hurts but he has only thrown one pick all year(the pick 6 vs UT was Tua). And Bama is number 9 in scoring offense, and once again tops in the SEC.(number 1 in scoring defense also). I mean if you want to play the stats game vs Bama you are going to lose, unless of course you pick and choose what to count. Which is what your stats do.
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 12:00 pm to BHMKyle
Hang on to that hope rope.
Hey, on a good note, you clinched the east last Saturday and could clinch the west this Saturday. Good luck.
Hey, on a good note, you clinched the east last Saturday and could clinch the west this Saturday. Good luck.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 12:01 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
#Bama leads the SEC in Scoring Offense per game (40.9) and Scoring Defense per game (9.8).
Underachieving
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