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Posted on 11/5/20 at 12:06 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
As for the dissatisfaction w/ Gus, 2015 and 2016 UGA are good starting points but there are many others. 2017 and 2018 LSU are losses many attribute almost entirely to Gus. 2016 and 2017 Clemson were very real chances to knock off a high ranked opponent. 2018 Tennessee. Most of the bowl losses.
Yes, its true there are others. That 2018 Tennessee game definitely sticks out as one of his worst losses. But I guess my point with Gus is that for every horrific loss you can usually find a game in which he pulled off a huge win over a Top 5 team. It usually balances out.
2013: 12-2 overall; 3-2 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #1 FSU and #14 LSU
Beat #5 MIZ; #7 AL; #18 A&M
2014: 8-5 overall; 2-4 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #4 AL; #9 UGA; #11 MSU; #13 WIS; NR A&M
Beat #17 OM; #18 KSU
2015: 7-6 overall; 0-3 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #1 AL; #10 OM; #16 LSU; NR UGA; NR MSU; NR ARK
Beat: No ranked teams
2016: 8-5 overall; 0-4 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #1 CLEM; #2 AL; #5 OK; #13 LSU; NR UGA
Beat: No ranked teams
2017: 10-14 overall; 3-4 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #2 UGA; #4 CLEM; #6 UCF; #18 LSU
Beat: #1 AL; #2 UGA; #19 MSU
2018: 8-5 overall; 2-3 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #2 AL; #6 LSU; #7 UGA; NR MSU; NR TEN
Beat: #13 WASH; #16 A&M
2019: 9-4 overall; 2-4 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #1 LSU; #4 UGA; #6 UF; #10 MN
Beat: #5 OR; #8 AL
2020 So Far: 4-2 overall; 0-1 vs. AP Top 25 teams
Lost to #5 UGA; NR SC
Beat: No ranked teams
SUMMARY OF RESUME
Gus is 66-33, winning 66.7% of his games overall.
Gus is 12-25 against AP Top 25 teams, winning 32.4% of his games against them.
Gus is 33-8 against unranked teams; winning 80.5% of his games against them.
So he has 12 Top 25 wins compared to 8 losses to unranked opponents... a ratio of 1.5 to 1.... that's pretty much the bare minimum rate a coach of a good program ought to have. He probably should have a better ratio. However I think in Gus' case, there are more positives if you dig into the details.
Here are those 8 "Bad Losses"
2014 8-5 Texas A&M
2015 10-3 Georgia; finished #26 in Final AP
2015 9-4 Miss St; finished #28 in Final AP
2015 8-5 Arkansas; finished #30 in Final AP
2016 8-5 Georgia
2018 8-5 Miss St; finished #28 in Final AP
2018 5-7 Tennessee
2020 2-3 South Carolina
The recent loss to S. Carolina could technically look a bit better if USC were to finish the year strong, but I don't see that happening. I would say this year's loss to SC and the 2018 loss to Tennessee stick out as the only two horrific losses on the list. The other six were all to SEC teams that finished about .500 and four of those 8 bad losses came against teams that finished just outside the Final AP Top 25, ranked #26-#30 in the receiving votes.
So in reality, Gus has just 4 truly dreadful losses over the course of 8 seasons.
Meanwhile, he has four wins against Final AP Top 5 opponents... a very difficult thing to obtain since often most teams that finish in the AP Top 5 finish with zero or just one loss on the entire season. During the same time frame, Nick Saban has just 5 wins against Final AP Top 5 teams, all of which came by virtue of playing in the College Football Playoff.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 12:31 pm to scuppernong
quote:
Thank you for your research and interest.
I have always felt that Gus doesn't quite get the credit he deserves. I can imagine being frustrated at times with him if I were an Auburn fan.... and I don't mean to sound demeaning to Auburn by saying "A program like Auburn should be content with 8-4 type seasons." That's not at all what I am saying.
However, I am a very logical person that loves to look at stats, and the fact of the matter is that Auburn has been disadvantaged more than any other SEC team when it comes to Strength of Schedule. Playing in the SEC West is typically just more difficult than the East. It just is.
But being paired up with Georgia in the East every season has by far been the toughest draw of any West team over the past 8 seasons. Throw in there the fact that Auburn routinely plays a big OOC opponent most years (Clemson 2x, Oregon, Washington, etc.) and there's no doubt that no team in the country has faced a more difficult regular season schedule in the past 8 seasons. I would argue even that no team's schedule even comes close.
So a typical 8-4 record for Auburn is not really apples-to-apples with an 8-4 type team from another Conference, and arguably different than an 8-4 type record for even an SEC East team.
Look at Kentucky. The past two seasons, Kentucky has produced a record of 18-8.... that's a 9-4 season average. Sounds great for Kentucky!... until you look at who they played...
During those two seasons, UK was 2-4 against AP Top 25 teams, which means they were 16-4 against unranked teams. In those two supposedly "great" seasons for Kentucky, they lost to the same 5-7 Tennessee team that Gus lost to in 2018... they lost to a 6-7 Mississippi State team... and a 4-8 South Carolina team. Those are some bad, bad losses.
Six of their 18 wins in '18 and '19 came against teams that were either FCS or finished with 3 total wins or fewer.
My point to all this is most people don't look at the details of a coach's or program's resume. They say, "Wow look at Kentucky and Mark Stoops averaging 9-4 for two years in a row!!" And then at the same time they say, "Look at Gus continuing to struggle and going 8-5 the last two years"
Yes, expectations should be much higher at Auburn than at Kentucky, but despite having similar records over the previous two seasons, Auburn played 11 Top 25 teams compared to Kentucky's six. That's nearly double! Kentucky played six opponents that were either FCS or finished with 3 wins or fewer while Auburn played just three. Again, double!
Those schedules are not apples-to-apples despite both teams playing in the same conference.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 12:35 pm to BHMKyle
I don't think he was getting fired this year anyway. I've lost hope on his mediocre arse getting fired ever. The mediocre BOT at Auburn don't want to put their money where their mouth is. Whoever made that idiot deal in 2017 needs to pony up.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 12:35 pm to BHMKyle
Gus was never getting fired this year.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 12:36 pm to BHMKyle
Gus probably will hold on this season. A loss to that LSU team would’ve meant implosion and they avoided that. It’s going to be extremely hard to fire a coach this year.
I think the issue with Gus is the frustrating style of team and the reason for losses. Plus you add in that outside of year 1 with all the luck, he hasn’t had a very good season. He’s had average seasons and the only positive has been beating a dominant Alabama program more than anyone else, but outside of 2013 and maybe 2017 when we still lost 4 times, he’s never had a championship contender.
I think the issue with Gus is the frustrating style of team and the reason for losses. Plus you add in that outside of year 1 with all the luck, he hasn’t had a very good season. He’s had average seasons and the only positive has been beating a dominant Alabama program more than anyone else, but outside of 2013 and maybe 2017 when we still lost 4 times, he’s never had a championship contender.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 12:43 pm to BHMKyle
He wasnt getting fired this year. With covid and limited income this year, they wouldn't do it financially and pretty much most people are getting passes this year unless the wheels just come completely off, both on field and off. Plus I dont think the school has received in full his $2 mil donation, so would have to account for that as well
Posted on 11/5/20 at 1:02 pm to BHMKyle
His job is decided on the 3rd or 4th Saturday in November, just like every Auburn coach.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 1:19 pm to jvilletiger25
Their problem is they put too much money where their mouth was when the Beat Bama in 2017.
Beat Bama...that is all that matters in Lee County
Beat Bama...that is all that matters in Lee County
Posted on 11/5/20 at 1:25 pm to KingOfTheWorld
Look at how Gus has recruited.His recruiting is consistently behind Ala ,Ga, Lsu.I would wager that if he swapped teams with Al or Ga , I think the records would be reversed.It is all about talent. If you look at Saban's career ,he doesn't win consistently without superior talent. I feel that there are 5 coaches that would win the SEC with Al 's talent. But being a successful coach is convincing great players to come and play for you.Does anyone think that Vandy would be great if Saban was their coach.
This post was edited on 11/5/20 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 11/5/20 at 1:41 pm to KingOfTheWorld
quote:
His job is decided on the 3rd or 4th Saturday in November, just like every Auburn coach.
Bill Curry says hi. And don’t tell me he quit. He was r-u-n-n o-f-t after a 10-1 season because of losing to Auburn.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 2:11 pm to Auburntiger
Normally, an Auburn blowout of LSU would be a big deal. It is difficult to realize how bad of a team LSU is right now. LSU would be hard pressed to finish in the upper tier of the Sun Belt. My apologies to all Auburn fans for giving Auburn delusions that they are somehow now ready to contend for any type of championship.
This post was edited on 11/5/20 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 11/5/20 at 2:24 pm to Auburn80
I sat beside Charlie Pell and his wife at the Bama vs UK game in 89. At the half Charlie and I went to get some cokes and we ran into a member of the A-Club and he told Charlie that Bill was done in T-town at the end of the season. Bama was unbeaten at that time.
RIP Charlie Pell and Hoot Owl.
RIP Charlie Pell and Hoot Owl.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 2:24 pm to BHMKyle
Kyle, would you be happy as a UGA fan if your HC has only won 6 games vs his biggest rivals in his tenure while pulling $7MM/yr?
Posted on 11/5/20 at 2:25 pm to LSUmudman
Gus has the built in excuse of an OC transition without an offseason. If the offense continues to show improvement over the season and Morris looks competent, most fans would be willing to give Gus 2021. If the Morris experiment doesn’t work, there will be a new coach hired.
This post was edited on 11/5/20 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 11/5/20 at 2:31 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
All part of having an in-state rival.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 3:57 pm to BHMKyle
It’s not just the losses.
Many of the losses are very lopsided.
28-7 in the championship game.
His wins are often razor thin, but many of the losses are 2 scores or more.
At times, we look unprepared. We turnover and penalty prone in many games.
He is a good coach, but we are paying GREAT money for good results.
It is what it is. He’s an 8-5 coach getting 11-2 money.
Many of the losses are very lopsided.
28-7 in the championship game.
His wins are often razor thin, but many of the losses are 2 scores or more.
At times, we look unprepared. We turnover and penalty prone in many games.
He is a good coach, but we are paying GREAT money for good results.
It is what it is. He’s an 8-5 coach getting 11-2 money.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 4:17 pm to JackieTreehorn
quote:
If Gus had lost to Alabama last year he would not have survived after the Georgia game this year.
bullshite.
Do you have $21.5M...........just for him, not including the rest of the staff..........to fire him on Dec. 1?
For the umpteenth time...........this goes for the multiple threads next week.............we are stuck with him until at least Dec 1,2021.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 4:20 pm to BHMKyle
NO but not getting fired until next year
Posted on 11/5/20 at 4:52 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
Beat Bama...that is all that matters in Lee County
The only people that say this about Auburn are bama fans. We very reasonably measure the success of each season on how we do vs our rivals, of which bama is the main one. If you look at the premium Auburn boards it is very common to see Gus complaint threads that leave out our record vs y'all because it is relatively good. He hasn't been able to do anything against GA and we're poor against LSU. Those three games determine the fan view of each season.
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