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AU Fans: Did Gus save his job last Saturday?
Posted on 11/5/20 at 9:52 am
Posted on 11/5/20 at 9:52 am
I'm not asking what Auburn fans WANT... I'm asking realistically does Gus get fired if he finishes out the season 7-3 or 6-4?
Auburn is now 4-2. You've got to think Auburn should beat MSU and UT. That means 6-4 at worst with a chance to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa (unlikely) or Texas A&M at home (certainly possible).
Gus vs. Auburn's Rivals
Gus gets a lot of grief for frequently losing to his big rivals (Alabama, Georgia, and LSU), but looking at his overall record, its not as bad as I would have thought given how difficult the competition has been:
Gus is now 8-16 against his big 3 rivals:
3-4 vs. Alabama (42.8%)
3-5 vs. LSU (37.5%)
2-7 vs. Georgia (22.2%)
Really the issue seems to be that Gus has a "Georgia" problem more so than he does a "Rival" problem. Those records vs. Alabama and LSU are not all that bad considering both have been very strong programs during this time period.
Of the 24 games Gus has played so far, here are how they stacked up in the rankings (FINAL ranking used except for 2020 in which I go by CURRENT ranking):
** THREE out of 24 games against eventual National Champs
** SEVEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 2 teams
** TEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 5 teams
** FIFTEEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 10 teams
** SEVENTEEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 15 teams
** NINETEEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 25 teams
** Just 5 games have come against teams that ultimately finished unranked (2020 LSU... 2016 UGA... 2015 UGA... 2014 LSU... and 2013 UGA)
Gus' Auburn teams were 3-2 against those five unranked teams, both losses coming to Georgia teams (2015 and 2016).
Conclusion
I would surmise that Auburn fans' lack of support for Gus can be traced back to two games: 2015 UGA and 2016 UGA.
Neither of those Georgia teams were good teams.
In 2015, Auburn (7-6) lost to Georgia (10-3) by a score of 13-20. In that game, Auburn had more total yards and more first downs. However, Auburn had 3 turnovers to UGA's zero and also gave up a special teams TD when UGA had a punt return for a TD. That turned out to be the difference in the game.
In 2016, Auburn (8-5) lost at Georgia (8-5) by a score of 7-13. Georgia did dominate in all offensive categories, however the difference in the game turned out to be a 3rd quarter INT returned for a touchdown for Georgia.
Had Auburn won those two games, Gus would be 10-14 (41.6%) against Auburn's 3 main rivals (respectable)... He'd be 4-5 (44.4%) against Georgia (again, respectable), and most importantly he'd be 5-0 against these three big rivals when the opponent was unranked, meaning no bad losses.
If Gus were 10-14 against his main rivals instead of 8-16.... and therefore able to say all 14 losses were against Top 20 teams, and 8 of the 14 would have been against Top 5 teams.... I think Gus might be endeared and accepted by Auburn fans.
I might be wrong. But it seems to me the real issue with Gus is that he's still paying for those two losses to Georgia in 2015 and 2016 that Auburn probably should have won.
Thoughts?
Auburn is now 4-2. You've got to think Auburn should beat MSU and UT. That means 6-4 at worst with a chance to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa (unlikely) or Texas A&M at home (certainly possible).
Gus vs. Auburn's Rivals
Gus gets a lot of grief for frequently losing to his big rivals (Alabama, Georgia, and LSU), but looking at his overall record, its not as bad as I would have thought given how difficult the competition has been:
Gus is now 8-16 against his big 3 rivals:
3-4 vs. Alabama (42.8%)
3-5 vs. LSU (37.5%)
2-7 vs. Georgia (22.2%)
Really the issue seems to be that Gus has a "Georgia" problem more so than he does a "Rival" problem. Those records vs. Alabama and LSU are not all that bad considering both have been very strong programs during this time period.
Of the 24 games Gus has played so far, here are how they stacked up in the rankings (FINAL ranking used except for 2020 in which I go by CURRENT ranking):
** THREE out of 24 games against eventual National Champs
** SEVEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 2 teams
** TEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 5 teams
** FIFTEEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 10 teams
** SEVENTEEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 15 teams
** NINETEEN out of 24 games against Final AP Top 25 teams
** Just 5 games have come against teams that ultimately finished unranked (2020 LSU... 2016 UGA... 2015 UGA... 2014 LSU... and 2013 UGA)
Gus' Auburn teams were 3-2 against those five unranked teams, both losses coming to Georgia teams (2015 and 2016).
Conclusion
I would surmise that Auburn fans' lack of support for Gus can be traced back to two games: 2015 UGA and 2016 UGA.
Neither of those Georgia teams were good teams.
In 2015, Auburn (7-6) lost to Georgia (10-3) by a score of 13-20. In that game, Auburn had more total yards and more first downs. However, Auburn had 3 turnovers to UGA's zero and also gave up a special teams TD when UGA had a punt return for a TD. That turned out to be the difference in the game.
In 2016, Auburn (8-5) lost at Georgia (8-5) by a score of 7-13. Georgia did dominate in all offensive categories, however the difference in the game turned out to be a 3rd quarter INT returned for a touchdown for Georgia.
Had Auburn won those two games, Gus would be 10-14 (41.6%) against Auburn's 3 main rivals (respectable)... He'd be 4-5 (44.4%) against Georgia (again, respectable), and most importantly he'd be 5-0 against these three big rivals when the opponent was unranked, meaning no bad losses.
If Gus were 10-14 against his main rivals instead of 8-16.... and therefore able to say all 14 losses were against Top 20 teams, and 8 of the 14 would have been against Top 5 teams.... I think Gus might be endeared and accepted by Auburn fans.
I might be wrong. But it seems to me the real issue with Gus is that he's still paying for those two losses to Georgia in 2015 and 2016 that Auburn probably should have won.
Thoughts?
This post was edited on 11/5/20 at 10:11 am
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Posted on 11/5/20 at 9:58 am to BHMKyle
I had an Auburn fan tell me that "every time Gus gets backed into a corner, he finds a way to get right back out."
The folks I speak with are frustrated and are (past) ready to move on, but he seems to be hanging in there for the moment.
Lot of football left.
The folks I speak with are frustrated and are (past) ready to move on, but he seems to be hanging in there for the moment.
Lot of football left.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:00 am to BHMKyle
He blew out a bad LSU team. I'm not sure that changes anything.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:09 am to Jebadeb
quote:
He blew out a bad LSU team. I'm not sure that changes anything.
Agree that the win over LSU was unimpressive when you consider how bad LSU is this year. However, when you have a "Can't beat any of your rivals" monkey on your back, a 48-11 demolition of a rival can earn you back a bit of goodwill whether AU fans want to admit it or not.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:16 am to BHMKyle
If Gus had lost to Alabama last year he would not have survived after the Georgia game this year.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:17 am to Jebadeb
quote:
He blew out a bad LSU team. I'm not sure that changes anything.
Sure it does. He didn't beat LSU he destroyed LSU.
Kevin Steele is the best DC in the SEC vs spread concepts. He isn't going to allow the barner team to drop off the precipitous no matter how badly Gus ties his offense in knots. You can almost set your watch by it.
Now the Barner's are once again getting their customary second wind down the backstretch. The big wigs of auburn have no stomach for eating Gus's contract with this team getting better on both sides of the LOS.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:31 am to BHMKyle
The hard thing with Gus is watching the team play for him. The players love him and always play hard for him. This isn’t a 2012 collapse type year. He will survive just because this is a throwaway year for most schools. Clemson has already played 7 games and the PAC 12 none. I don’t know how you determine a true champion or Heisman winner from this season. That will be in his favor.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:33 am to BHMKyle
I don't know for me against Saban/GOAT not many have fared as well or better. I live in GA so I have a harder time with the 2-7 vs Georgia. I don't know if you can really blame a coach when another team 'peaks'. Fortunately Georgia only peaks once every 40 years (1980) and LSU appears to have 'peaked' last season. 
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:36 am to BHMKyle
Nice work. Very well thought out.
I can't speak for all AU fans- he probably saved his job last weekend. Hard to fire a guy if he ends up with a winning season in this crazy year. And as bad as some of his teams have been, they've never had an off-the-rails year like 1998, 2008, or 2012.
In my opinion, it's not just the UGA issue. It's how woefully unprepared he is in bowl games. It's the head scratching losses like UCF and Tennessee and Minnesota and South Carolina. If he went 10-3 yearly with losses to the big 3, it would still be hard to stomach, but 10 win seasons soften the blow. He's an 8-4 coach. That's all he is, and all he'll ever be. Plus, he's a goofy nerd. He has poor people skills. And he will stack 8 impact guys in a recruiting class and it will be called top 10, meanwhile 5 of those guys will transfer, and out average offensive line size will be 260 lb.
I can't speak for all AU fans- he probably saved his job last weekend. Hard to fire a guy if he ends up with a winning season in this crazy year. And as bad as some of his teams have been, they've never had an off-the-rails year like 1998, 2008, or 2012.
In my opinion, it's not just the UGA issue. It's how woefully unprepared he is in bowl games. It's the head scratching losses like UCF and Tennessee and Minnesota and South Carolina. If he went 10-3 yearly with losses to the big 3, it would still be hard to stomach, but 10 win seasons soften the blow. He's an 8-4 coach. That's all he is, and all he'll ever be. Plus, he's a goofy nerd. He has poor people skills. And he will stack 8 impact guys in a recruiting class and it will be called top 10, meanwhile 5 of those guys will transfer, and out average offensive line size will be 260 lb.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:39 am to BHMKyle
My "favorite" Gus Stat:
The man can't beat good teams at their place - period!
quote:
Gus Malzahn is 0-11 (0%) in Baton Rouge, Athens and Tuscaloosa.
The man can't beat good teams at their place - period!
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:39 am to Jebadeb
quote:
blew out a bad LSU team
Lolol but lsu fans were beating thier chest before the Auburn gane
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:52 am to BHMKyle
Yes, he'll survive absent a collapse. And I've said it for years, one thing Gus does is avoid losing the team. It's a testament to him, but it's a negative for those of us who want to replace him because he ensures mediocrity without ever really nosediving enough to force his termination.
I think the chance of ditching Gus this year was always low. High buyout, COVID, etc. I said last season that beating Alabama last year while giving LSU a great game in a natty year was probably enough to buy him through 2021 unless something crazy happened. Even though it's of his own making, there is going to be a lot of chatter that he should have the chance to build year to year with Nix.
As for the dissatisfaction w/ Gus, 2015 and 2016 UGA are good starting points but there are many others. 2017 and 2018 LSU are losses many attribute almost entirely to Gus. 2016 and 2017 Clemson were very real chances to knock off a high ranked opponent. 2018 Tennessee. Most of the bowl losses.
If Gus won 50% of those games - all of which were very winnable (and I don't think I'm being a homer here) for a team with any competent offensive identity - the outlook on Gus is totally different.
Of course, I maintain the biggest knock on Gus is that Auburn football is not fun and Gus teams are unenjoyable to watch most of the time. Obviously that's not quantifiable, but I think it's a huge contributor to the Gus fatigue, especially when you consider what Gus was supposed to bring (and he has given glimpses). If nothing else, his teams should be fun to watch with explosive plays, playing quickly, some high school trickeration shite, etc. But they're not.
I think the chance of ditching Gus this year was always low. High buyout, COVID, etc. I said last season that beating Alabama last year while giving LSU a great game in a natty year was probably enough to buy him through 2021 unless something crazy happened. Even though it's of his own making, there is going to be a lot of chatter that he should have the chance to build year to year with Nix.
As for the dissatisfaction w/ Gus, 2015 and 2016 UGA are good starting points but there are many others. 2017 and 2018 LSU are losses many attribute almost entirely to Gus. 2016 and 2017 Clemson were very real chances to knock off a high ranked opponent. 2018 Tennessee. Most of the bowl losses.
If Gus won 50% of those games - all of which were very winnable (and I don't think I'm being a homer here) for a team with any competent offensive identity - the outlook on Gus is totally different.
Of course, I maintain the biggest knock on Gus is that Auburn football is not fun and Gus teams are unenjoyable to watch most of the time. Obviously that's not quantifiable, but I think it's a huge contributor to the Gus fatigue, especially when you consider what Gus was supposed to bring (and he has given glimpses). If nothing else, his teams should be fun to watch with explosive plays, playing quickly, some high school trickeration shite, etc. But they're not.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:54 am to BHMKyle
Nobody really cares how highly your rivals are ranked when they beat you. All of our rivals are pretty much always highly ranked and we need to be more successful. That said I don't believe for a second we were ever considering paying that massive buyout in a year every athletic department is hemmorhaging money.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 10:56 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Thoughts?
tl;dr
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:01 am to BHMKyle
quote:Few more:
I would surmise that Auburn fans' lack of support for Gus can be traced back to two games: 2015 UGA and 2016 UGA.
2014 Texas A&M
2018 Tennessee
2020 South Carolina
And the putrid bowl record.
But otherwise, yeah, pretty much
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:10 am to TheSandman
quote:
I would surmise that Auburn fans' lack of support for Gus can be traced back to two games: 2015 UGA and 2016 UGA.
quote:
2014 Texas A&M
2018 Tennessee
2020 South Carolina
And the putrid bowl record.
for me personally - LSU 2017 - blowing a 20 pt lead
I've been done with Gus since that day
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:16 am to Auburntiger
quote:Oh shoot, I forgot about that one
for me personally - LSU 2017 - blowing a 20 pt lead
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:28 am to TheSandman
I've been done since 2018 at Tuscaloosa. We weren't winning that game, but he went into the half with timeouts in his pocket, the ball, and momentum. Ultimate puss move. He wasn't trying to win that day.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:46 am to schatman
The only reason Gus is still at AU is he beat Bama in 2013,2017,and 2019.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:49 am to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
he only reason Gus is still at AU is he beat Bama in 2013,2017,and 2019.
I agree
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