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re: Alabama vs Miss St thoughts?
Posted on 10/1/26 at 9:46 pm to BobLeeDagger
Posted on 10/1/26 at 9:46 pm to BobLeeDagger
But Bama gets the nod historically. They’re usually gonna be mentioned first. State may win, though
Posted on 10/1/26 at 9:51 pm to BobLeeDagger
But if you beat Bama you probably won’t hear it anymore
Posted on 10/1/26 at 11:08 pm to TigerScorpion
I agree with this take. Could be wrong but I feel this is it
Posted on 10/1/26 at 11:11 pm to The Silverback
State is a Juggernut. We've got our work cut out for us.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 12:33 am to MFTPC
Our QB might be better but our coach isn't better.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 2:16 am to 3down10
This game reminds me of the Vandy game from a couple of years ago. I think this will be the true test of whether or not KDB has figured things out.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:23 am to tide06
quote:
You seem quite angry about data being presented.
I’d be upset about data too if I were an Arkansas fan.
Is Bama favored? Yes.
Do the stats support that? Yes.
Will it be the best team Bama has played YTD? Yes.
Could MSU win? Also yes.
Would anyone trade MSUs roster for Bamas? No.
That data isn't one to one is the issue.
1. It's still early in the season. If this game was week 8 or 9, you'd have a better picture of what both teams are capable of. Both Russell and Taylor are ascending with very similar stat lines.
2. The South Carolina comparison goes beyond the stats. It was State's 3rd Game. Alabama's 4th game. State played in Columbia. Bama got them in Tuscaloosa. There's no telling what the outcome would be if the situation was reversed, but getting South Carolina in Tuscaloosa with an extra game under their belt makes a difference.
3. You could argue Miss St didn't mop the floor with Missouri last week. Well, Simmons isn't Sellers. Sellers clearly can't read the field where Simmons can or at least he's better at it.
It's not a slam dunk that Alabama is that much better, but Saturday will sort it out.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:39 am to 3down10
quote:
#5 Alabama - #6 Offense, #10 Defense
#22 Miss St - #11 Offense, #39 Defense
Where are these rankings coming from?
Through 4 games:
Total Yards Gained:
State: #5 Bama: #24
Points Scored:
State: #15 Bama: #5 (that's counting 3 defensive TDS for Bama)
Total Yards Allowed:
State: #74 Bama: #51
Total Points Allowed:
State: #57 Bama: #51 (84 vs 81)
So the yards gained and yards allowed of course will be affected by turnovers/def tds.
The defensive stat that matters the most is points allowed, and the teams are neck and neck as far as that is concerned.
As in my other response, it's still hard to rely on this so early in the season. Opponents are different, teams should be getting better each week, etc..
If both teams continue their trend, it should be a tough match up and it's anybody's game.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:44 am to The Silverback
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:54 am to TigerScorpion
I can't wait until State travels to that crap hole BR and hammers da tigahs
Posted on 10/2/26 at 9:59 am to SparkyWilson
quote:
Where are these rankings coming from?
FEI, opponent adjusted stats.
2026 FEI Ratings (through Week 4)
I generally don't even pay attention to the stats you are quoting because they treat rushing for 100 yards against Mizzou as being equal to rushing for 100 yards against ULM.
Missouri has the 15th ranked defense. ULM has the 136th ranked defense out of 138 teams - almost the worse in college football.
Obviously rushing for 100 yards against Missouri is more difficult than doing it against ULM. Your stats count them as equal, advanced stats like FEI do not.
SP+ on ESPN is also pretty good, but it's behind a paywall.
There is F+, which is a combination of FEI and SP+ though.
2026 F+ Ratings (through Week 4)
It has:
#6 Alabama - #6 Offense, #11 Defense
#21 Miss St - #12 Offense, #42 Defense
These stats also filter out garbage time.
This post was edited on 10/2/26 at 10:01 am
Posted on 10/2/26 at 10:23 am to 3down10
That makes sense, and I like those better.
Believe me, I know the raw stats don't tell the whole story.
It will be interesting to see what the FEI rankings look like further down the road.
Believe me, I know the raw stats don't tell the whole story.
It will be interesting to see what the FEI rankings look like further down the road.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 10:34 am to The Silverback
quote:
What does the rest of the board think?
I think Bama will win this one decisively, we’re starting to click.
As for the original question, I think it will take a couple bad turnovers from either team for it to be a decisive win.
The defensive strategies will be interesting to see for each team. State has 4 receivers that all get a good share of the receptions. There's not really just one guy. Bothwell is having a great start to the season. That's going to be hard to defend.
I wonder if state will stick Kelley Jones on Coleman-Williams all game, and, if they do, will it work? Can Arnett get pressure without sending more than 4-5? Bama's running game doesn't quite as many yards that State does, but I'm thinking it's going to be a factor. Arnett is going to have his hands full too.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 10:36 am to The Silverback
Yeh I have no real read...havent watched enough of State outside of hilights.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 10:38 am to tallamander34
quote:
Bama wins. Miss St greatest win was a squeeze out against a very mediocre Missouri team
Correct. They barely beat us by one score at home.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 10:39 am to SparkyWilson
quote:
That makes sense, and I like those better.
Believe me, I know the raw stats don't tell the whole story.
It will be interesting to see what the FEI rankings look like further down the road.
Yeah the problem with these stats(and any stats) is that with only 4 games of data it's really hard for them to be accurate.
They say what they say and they are the best stats I know of, but with such limited data, all stats are a bit iffy. Especially when neither has even played a top20 team yet. Alabama's SoS is 56, and Miss St is about equal at 62.
These are the kinds of games that help a lot and add clarity.
Posted on 10/2/26 at 10:43 am to 3down10
quote:
Yeah the problem with these stats(and any stats) is that with only 4 games of data it's really hard for them to be accurate.
They say what they say and they are the best stats I know of, but with such limited data, all stats are a bit iffy. Especially when neither has even played a top20 team yet. Alabama's SoS is 56, and Miss St is about equal at 62.
These are the kinds of games that help a lot and add clarity.
completely agree
Posted on 10/2/26 at 11:29 am to The Silverback
This will be over at half and in the barn by the first MSU drive of the 2nd half. Bama by three scores.
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