Started By
Message
Stat Model - #1 Bama vs #3 OSU (Title) (7 PM CST) (Jan 11)
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:11 am
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:11 am
Just to start, here are the historical model picks and actual results from 2020 to date
To date:
- Alabama has only underperformed the model in terms of Point Margin 2 times - with one of them being the LSU game in which we stopped trying to score roughly 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. The other, of course, being Florida.
- Alabama's offense has been basically right on track with the modeling. The best game was Auburn, the "worst" game was Arkansas, but that makes sense in hindsight given the way they defended us compared to other teams (Tennessee too, but that was early with limited data).
- Alabama's defense............pretty much outperformed the expectations all year except for the Florida game. A posi-bammer says that's because Florida made plays and got some extra chances to do so. The nega-bammer says well yea, all those other offenses sucks so who cares. I say it's somewhere in the middle.
- So, in totality, the model has underestimated Alabama slightly.
In addition, totals on the season
Against the Spread: 11-13 (46%) (AU/TN prediction = line)
Against the Total: 13-12 (52%)
Total: 24-25 (49%)
To date:
- Alabama has only underperformed the model in terms of Point Margin 2 times - with one of them being the LSU game in which we stopped trying to score roughly 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. The other, of course, being Florida.
- Alabama's offense has been basically right on track with the modeling. The best game was Auburn, the "worst" game was Arkansas, but that makes sense in hindsight given the way they defended us compared to other teams (Tennessee too, but that was early with limited data).
- Alabama's defense............pretty much outperformed the expectations all year except for the Florida game. A posi-bammer says that's because Florida made plays and got some extra chances to do so. The nega-bammer says well yea, all those other offenses sucks so who cares. I say it's somewhere in the middle.
- So, in totality, the model has underestimated Alabama slightly.
In addition, totals on the season
Against the Spread: 11-13 (46%) (AU/TN prediction = line)
Against the Total: 13-12 (52%)
Total: 24-25 (49%)
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
#1 ALABAMA (-8.0) vs #3 OHIO STATE (O/U 75.5)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Alabama - 42
Ohio State - 34
MODEL PREDICTION (CORRECTED)
ALABAMA - 45
OHIO STATE - 38
Alabama Total Yards (YPP): 485 yds (7.22 YPP on 68 plays)
Alabama Pass Yards (YPA): 339 yds (9.98 YPA on 34 plays)
Alabama Rush Yards (YPA): 146 yds (4.30 YPA on 34 plays)
Ohio State Total Yards (YPP): 480 yds (6.67 YPP on 72 plays)
Ohio State Pass Yards (YPA): 271 yds (9.35 YPA on 29 plays)
Ohio State Rush Yards (YPA): 209 yds (4.86 YPA on 43 plays)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Alabama - 42
Ohio State - 34
MODEL PREDICTION (CORRECTED)
ALABAMA - 45
OHIO STATE - 38
Alabama Total Yards (YPP): 485 yds (7.22 YPP on 68 plays)
Alabama Pass Yards (YPA): 339 yds (9.98 YPA on 34 plays)
Alabama Rush Yards (YPA): 146 yds (4.30 YPA on 34 plays)
Ohio State Total Yards (YPP): 480 yds (6.67 YPP on 72 plays)
Ohio State Pass Yards (YPA): 271 yds (9.35 YPA on 29 plays)
Ohio State Rush Yards (YPA): 209 yds (4.86 YPA on 43 plays)
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 8:56 am
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
Someone pin this one again, given that the championship game will be the last game of the season.
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:18 am to SummerOfGeorge
Will the fact OSU hasn't played that many games effect the prediction because the data is possibly "incomplete"?
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:18 am to YStar
quote:
Will the fact OSU hasn't played that many games effect the prediction because the data is possibly "incomplete"?
Probably
I'm going to run 2 versions
- Ohio State (Clemson only)
- Ohio State (entire season)
Posted on 1/3/21 at 12:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 9:18 am
Posted on 1/3/21 at 1:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
- Ohio State (Clemson only)
Will show a bloodbath victory for OSU, I bet.
Posted on 1/3/21 at 1:26 pm to biclops
Yeah I get why you would but that thing isn't gonna be very reliable. Neither will the other tbh. Who knows what osu actually is going into our game
Posted on 1/3/21 at 1:29 pm to Kcstills17
quote:
Yeah I get why you would but that thing isn't gonna be very reliable. Neither will the other tbh. Who knows what osu actually is going into our game
I think what it does is give a range of expectations. In Ohio State's case, it will be a pretty wide range because of their limited schedule and the massive difference in their average play in the first 6 games compared to their performance vs Clemson.
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
NCAA Game Sim MATCHUP SIMULATION STATS:
LINK
Alabama vs. Ohio State
# of simulations: 2291
# of overtimes: 53 (2.3%)
The average score:
Alabama: 40.6
Ohio State: 28.7
-decided by < 5 pts 422 times (18.4%)
» Alabama won 1673 times (73.0%)
» Alabama won by >20 pts 785 times (34.3%)
» Ohio State won 618 times (27.0%)
» Ohio State won by >20 pts 89 times (3.9%)
My simulation run produced a FINAL SCORE: Bama 28 - tOSU 34
I also produced a losing score vs ND on my one run simulation.
LINK
Alabama vs. Ohio State
# of simulations: 2291
# of overtimes: 53 (2.3%)
The average score:
Alabama: 40.6
Ohio State: 28.7
-decided by < 5 pts 422 times (18.4%)
» Alabama won 1673 times (73.0%)
» Alabama won by >20 pts 785 times (34.3%)
» Ohio State won 618 times (27.0%)
» Ohio State won by >20 pts 89 times (3.9%)
My simulation run produced a FINAL SCORE: Bama 28 - tOSU 34
I also produced a losing score vs ND on my one run simulation.
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:15 pm to Che Boludo
I just did mine it was
Bama 48
OSU 3
I’ll take that!
Bama 48
OSU 3
I’ll take that!
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:16 pm to Che Boludo
That website has Clemson beating Bama 52.3% of the time in its sims.
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:17 pm to CrimsonBoz
I got 58-27 with Bama being up 41-10 at one point
Also did the ND game and got 73-7 Bama
Also did the ND game and got 73-7 Bama
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 1/3/21 at 9:03 pm to Che Boludo
I got Bama 54-osu-21 on the first one. Then I got Bama 44-osu 31 on the second one. I’d take either one of those!
Posted on 1/3/21 at 9:51 pm to Sl0thstronautEsq
Bama 65-3? how accurate is that site?
Posted on 1/3/21 at 10:18 pm to Panthers4life
The simulation I just ran has it
Bama 58 Ohio State 55
How many heart attacks would this cause...lol
Bama 58 Ohio State 55
How many heart attacks would this cause...lol
Posted on 1/3/21 at 10:20 pm to PBD4BAMA
quote:
Bama 58 Ohio State 55
How many heart attacks would this cause
At least one.
Posted on 1/3/21 at 10:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Just looking at basic team stats, this seems like a pretty even matchup. Would that be correct?
Really hope that Ohio State drained too much from the emotional well in that Clemson game and I hope our guys are ready to avenge our performance in 2018.
Really hope that Ohio State drained too much from the emotional well in that Clemson game and I hope our guys are ready to avenge our performance in 2018.
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:43 pm to FairhopeTider
Model added - gird your loins
Latest Alabama News
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News