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An overlooked aspect of the 4th playoff spot if there is a big upset with LSU
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:43 pm
I said it once in the title and will say again to calm the LSU people off the bat- I do not think UGA will win. I think LSU will win. UGA is not as good as LSU and they are expected to win the game.
With that said, IF there is a major upset and we somehow do luck into a win SAturday (and assumign other chalk holds) you're going to have the following teams for the 4th playoff spot:
12-1 Baylor/OU, big 12 champs
12-1 Utah, pac 12 champs
12-1 LSU, non champs
At the outset LSU is at the back of the line due to not winning their conference, which is somethign the committee has proven time and time again it looks at VERY highly. However, every other aspect would be in LSUs favor. Better wins (by a frick ton at that), better loss, higher ranking all season, better metrics across the board. I mean pretty much any other category you can use to rank LSU would have the edge over all 3.
BUT...waht I think is getting overlooked and not even mentioned anywhere is the rematch factor. We've only seen 1 instance of 2 conference teams making the playoffs, but the teams hadn't played that season so it was a bit of an easier pill to swallow. How willing is the commitee going to be to:
1)Tell UGA "hey congrats on beating LSU to win the SEC, but you still have to play them again next month"
2)Tell both of the other conference winners "hey congrats on winning your conference with the same record as LSU, but we're giving them a do-over to beat the team they just lost to"
That's what I can't shake. I wholeheartedly believe with full confidence that LSU is a much better team than any of those 3 and would blow them doors off any of them if they played each other. I just don't know if the committee is going to want to see a rematch of 2 teams that just played in December since we already know the outcome of what would happen if they played.
With that said, IF there is a major upset and we somehow do luck into a win SAturday (and assumign other chalk holds) you're going to have the following teams for the 4th playoff spot:
12-1 Baylor/OU, big 12 champs
12-1 Utah, pac 12 champs
12-1 LSU, non champs
At the outset LSU is at the back of the line due to not winning their conference, which is somethign the committee has proven time and time again it looks at VERY highly. However, every other aspect would be in LSUs favor. Better wins (by a frick ton at that), better loss, higher ranking all season, better metrics across the board. I mean pretty much any other category you can use to rank LSU would have the edge over all 3.
BUT...waht I think is getting overlooked and not even mentioned anywhere is the rematch factor. We've only seen 1 instance of 2 conference teams making the playoffs, but the teams hadn't played that season so it was a bit of an easier pill to swallow. How willing is the commitee going to be to:
1)Tell UGA "hey congrats on beating LSU to win the SEC, but you still have to play them again next month"
2)Tell both of the other conference winners "hey congrats on winning your conference with the same record as LSU, but we're giving them a do-over to beat the team they just lost to"
That's what I can't shake. I wholeheartedly believe with full confidence that LSU is a much better team than any of those 3 and would blow them doors off any of them if they played each other. I just don't know if the committee is going to want to see a rematch of 2 teams that just played in December since we already know the outcome of what would happen if they played.
This post was edited on 12/1/19 at 2:44 pm
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Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:46 pm to WG_Dawg
I think LSU makes it in with a loss as long as UGA does not blow them out.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:46 pm to WG_Dawg
Tl:dr
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:48 pm to WG_Dawg
Unless LSU gets blown out, it would look horrible if the committee kept LSU out. Our one loss would be a LOT better than losing to USC or K State, plus we’ve look like a more “complete” team than Utah and Oklahoma, with a much more challenging schedule. The committee would be contradicting their own “complete team” BS by keeping us out.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:56 pm to WG_Dawg
A blowout loss to UGA isnt as embarrassing as a home loss to muschamp
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:58 pm to WG_Dawg
This is why I didn't want Bama in the 4th spot so I guess I'd be a hypocrite to say Lsu should be in with a loss to Georgia. But, bama didn't beat 1 ranked team whereas Lsu, not counting Texas still beat Florida Bama and Auburn pretty much all of the tough sec teams. If I was a Georgia fan I'd say you had your shot. Either way LSU is a special team this year that won't be denied.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:02 pm to WG_Dawg
According to this if Utah or Oklahoma wins out and LSU loses then LSU is out.
Committee isn’t leaving out two conference winners with 1 loss.
Committee isn’t leaving out two conference winners with 1 loss.
This post was edited on 12/1/19 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:05 pm to WG_Dawg
I think it would be:
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. LSU
No rematch unless both teams win first round. If that were to happen, I don't see how there's an argument that a 13-1 Georgia with wins over LSU and Clemson shouldn't play for the NC. Of course LSU will have beaten the number one seed, so I don't see an issue there either, even if some people don't like it.
That being said, doubtful that will happen. Odds are LSU wins SECCG.
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. LSU
No rematch unless both teams win first round. If that were to happen, I don't see how there's an argument that a 13-1 Georgia with wins over LSU and Clemson shouldn't play for the NC. Of course LSU will have beaten the number one seed, so I don't see an issue there either, even if some people don't like it.
That being said, doubtful that will happen. Odds are LSU wins SECCG.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:14 pm to WG_Dawg
Georgia wins and they're in.
But that won't happen. And if they do, they get run by Ohio St or Clemson or us if we play twice.
But that won't happen. And if they do, they get run by Ohio St or Clemson or us if we play twice.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:31 pm to WG_Dawg
LSU is 100% in regardless of Saturday’s outcome.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:33 pm to WG_Dawg
You don’t have to issue a disclaimer. IMO, the #4 team winning a conference game at home is hardly a huge upset.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:38 pm to WG_Dawg
UGA is not beating LSU, so none of this shite matters!
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:39 pm to WG_Dawg
If Ohio St would lose to Wisconsin do you think the committee would leave out Ohio St? Hell no!
So they shouldn’t leave out LSU if they lose to Georgia
So they shouldn’t leave out LSU if they lose to Georgia
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:56 pm to WG_Dawg
If Georgia beat LSU in a close game, Georgia might still be the #4 team.
Remember Penn St/Minnesota from like 2 weeks ago?
Georgia has a really bad loss. Also, they'll compare our common opponents and the A&M games aren't even close. We also played much better against Florida.
I wouldn't be surprised if these were the final rankings (with LSU losing)
1 OSU
2 Clemson
3 LSU
4 Georgia
else
It would look like this
1 OSU
2 Clemson
3 Georgia
4 LSU
Georgia has no chance to jump OSU or Clemson unless they lose.
Remember Penn St/Minnesota from like 2 weeks ago?
Georgia has a really bad loss. Also, they'll compare our common opponents and the A&M games aren't even close. We also played much better against Florida.
I wouldn't be surprised if these were the final rankings (with LSU losing)
1 OSU
2 Clemson
3 LSU
4 Georgia
else
It would look like this
1 OSU
2 Clemson
3 Georgia
4 LSU
Georgia has no chance to jump OSU or Clemson unless they lose.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 4:05 pm to WG_Dawg
1) LSU very likely wins so this is a don't care,
2) the committee doesn't care about rematches, they seed them as they believe the teams are ranked.
For instance, had Notre Dame beat UGA this year and won out and made the playoff, you are saying that either they or possible SEC champ UGA can't both be in the playoff. There's no such criteria.
Or in 2017, had Ohio State not lost a stinker to Iowa and instead were a 1 loss B1G champ, you are saying the committee would not let both Oklahoma and Ohio State be in the playoff because a possible rematch could have happened. No! All season long, people were hoping for the rematch.
Nowhere in their criteria are they to either consider or prevent rematches.
2) the committee doesn't care about rematches, they seed them as they believe the teams are ranked.
For instance, had Notre Dame beat UGA this year and won out and made the playoff, you are saying that either they or possible SEC champ UGA can't both be in the playoff. There's no such criteria.
Or in 2017, had Ohio State not lost a stinker to Iowa and instead were a 1 loss B1G champ, you are saying the committee would not let both Oklahoma and Ohio State be in the playoff because a possible rematch could have happened. No! All season long, people were hoping for the rematch.
Nowhere in their criteria are they to either consider or prevent rematches.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 4:30 pm to WG_Dawg
Motherfricker thats why we are going to kick the dog shite out of uga when we play next Saturday. Stomp a damn mudhole...
Posted on 12/1/19 at 4:38 pm to WG_Dawg
On Championship Drive today, Emmanuel Acho brought up a good point. He said in that scenario, LSU is in regardless and the debate should be between Big12, Utah, and Georgia. His point being that Georgia had the worst loss of all them.
ETA: fwiw I don't agree with him. But I do agree LSU would still get in. LSU is unequivocally better than those other 3.
ETA: fwiw I don't agree with him. But I do agree LSU would still get in. LSU is unequivocally better than those other 3.
This post was edited on 12/1/19 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 12/1/19 at 4:39 pm to WG_Dawg
The committee would be in a pickle:
On the one hand, I agree that letting LSU in would be bullshite.
On the other hand, leaving LSU our would also be bullshite considering how they handled Bama in the past.
On the one hand, I agree that letting LSU in would be bullshite.
On the other hand, leaving LSU our would also be bullshite considering how they handled Bama in the past.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 4:47 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
1)Tell UGA "hey congrats on beating LSU to win the SEC, but you still have to play them again next month"
As an lsu fan I can’t imagine how that would feel
Posted on 12/2/19 at 6:22 am to WG_Dawg
If Georgia beats LSU, Georgia will be the 2 or the 3, and LSU will be the 4. Clemson will smoke Georgia and it'll be Clemson vs OSU/LSU. No annoying rematch to consider.
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