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Hypothetical Playoff Scenario
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:36 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:36 am
So who gets the final Playoff Spot if the following scenario were to happen:
SEC: Alabama goes 13-0 and wins the SEC; Georgia goes 12-1, winning the SEC East but losing a close game to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game; LSU finishes 11-1, losing only to Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a very close game as well. Auburn finishes 9-3 with only losing to Alabama, LSU, and Georgia. Florida finishes 10-2, only losing to Auburn and Georgia.
BIG 10: Ohio State beats Wisconsin during the regular season, but Wisconsin wins the rematch in the BIG 10 Championship Game. Both teams finish 12-1 but the head-to-head matchup is split.
ACC: Clemson cakewalks to a 13-0 finish and at the end of the season, not a single one of their opponents is ranked in the Final Playoff Top 25 ratings
BIG 12: Oklahoma beats Texas in the Red River Shootout, but Texas gets revenge in the BIG 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma has an 12-1 record but played a very soft schedule, while Texas finishes 11-2 with the two losses coming to Oklahoma and LSU... Texas also claims the BIG 12 Championship
PAC 12: Oregon finishes 12-1, having won 12 straight and the only loss was in Week 1 to Auburn.
Notre Dame also finishes 11-1 with their only loss being to Georgia in Athens.
So in terms of resume, here would be the likely Final 12 teams in some order:
13-0 Clemson (ACC Champs)
13-0 Alabama (SEC Champs)
12-1 Wisconsin (loss to Ohio St.; BIG 10 Champs)
12-1 Ohio St. (loss to Wisconsin)
12-1 Georgia (loss to Alabama)
12-1 Oklahoma (loss to Texas)
11-1 Oregon (loss to Auburn; PAC 12 Champs)
11-1 LSU (loss to Alabama)
11-1 Notre Dame (loss to Georgia)
11-2 Texas (losses to Oklahoma and LSU; BIG 12 Champs)
9-3 Florida (losses to Georgia, LSU, Auburn)
9-3 Auburn (losses to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU)
That would be 12 teams with losses only to each other. How would you rank the teams 1-12 if that were the scenario?
Here are the real dilemmas?
BIG 10: Wisconsin and Ohio State would both be 12-1 each having beat and lost to each other. Wisconsin would have a BIG 10 Title which is supposedly worth something, however Ohio State is a traditional power that plays in the more difficult division of the Big 10.
SEC: Alabama obviously is the #1 seed in the playoff, but LSU and Georgia would both be 1-loss teams with their only loss being to Alabama. LSU would have won on the road at Texas while Georgia would have won at home against Notre Dame. Both teams would have played and beat Auburn, though Georgia would have won on the road vs. LSU beating Auburn at home. Both teams would have defeated Florida, with LSU beating them at home while Georgia would have done it on a neutral field.
BIG 12: Both Texas and Oklahoma would have split games against each other. Texas would have 2 losses to Oklahoma's one, but only by virtue of losing a close game to a very good team in LSU, while Oklahoma played only cupcakes out of conference. Texas would also have the BIG 12 Championship which is supposedly worth something. Is Texas penalized for playing a difficult schedule?
SEC: Alabama goes 13-0 and wins the SEC; Georgia goes 12-1, winning the SEC East but losing a close game to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game; LSU finishes 11-1, losing only to Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a very close game as well. Auburn finishes 9-3 with only losing to Alabama, LSU, and Georgia. Florida finishes 10-2, only losing to Auburn and Georgia.
BIG 10: Ohio State beats Wisconsin during the regular season, but Wisconsin wins the rematch in the BIG 10 Championship Game. Both teams finish 12-1 but the head-to-head matchup is split.
ACC: Clemson cakewalks to a 13-0 finish and at the end of the season, not a single one of their opponents is ranked in the Final Playoff Top 25 ratings
BIG 12: Oklahoma beats Texas in the Red River Shootout, but Texas gets revenge in the BIG 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma has an 12-1 record but played a very soft schedule, while Texas finishes 11-2 with the two losses coming to Oklahoma and LSU... Texas also claims the BIG 12 Championship
PAC 12: Oregon finishes 12-1, having won 12 straight and the only loss was in Week 1 to Auburn.
Notre Dame also finishes 11-1 with their only loss being to Georgia in Athens.
So in terms of resume, here would be the likely Final 12 teams in some order:
13-0 Clemson (ACC Champs)
13-0 Alabama (SEC Champs)
12-1 Wisconsin (loss to Ohio St.; BIG 10 Champs)
12-1 Ohio St. (loss to Wisconsin)
12-1 Georgia (loss to Alabama)
12-1 Oklahoma (loss to Texas)
11-1 Oregon (loss to Auburn; PAC 12 Champs)
11-1 LSU (loss to Alabama)
11-1 Notre Dame (loss to Georgia)
11-2 Texas (losses to Oklahoma and LSU; BIG 12 Champs)
9-3 Florida (losses to Georgia, LSU, Auburn)
9-3 Auburn (losses to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU)
That would be 12 teams with losses only to each other. How would you rank the teams 1-12 if that were the scenario?
Here are the real dilemmas?
BIG 10: Wisconsin and Ohio State would both be 12-1 each having beat and lost to each other. Wisconsin would have a BIG 10 Title which is supposedly worth something, however Ohio State is a traditional power that plays in the more difficult division of the Big 10.
SEC: Alabama obviously is the #1 seed in the playoff, but LSU and Georgia would both be 1-loss teams with their only loss being to Alabama. LSU would have won on the road at Texas while Georgia would have won at home against Notre Dame. Both teams would have played and beat Auburn, though Georgia would have won on the road vs. LSU beating Auburn at home. Both teams would have defeated Florida, with LSU beating them at home while Georgia would have done it on a neutral field.
BIG 12: Both Texas and Oklahoma would have split games against each other. Texas would have 2 losses to Oklahoma's one, but only by virtue of losing a close game to a very good team in LSU, while Oklahoma played only cupcakes out of conference. Texas would also have the BIG 12 Championship which is supposedly worth something. Is Texas penalized for playing a difficult schedule?
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:41 am
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Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:39 am to BHMKyle
Your hypothetical is already fricked because if LSU goes 11-1 with the loss to bama, then Florida would have a loss to LSU and be 9-3
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:41 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:44 am to BHMKyle
Not sure why you even included AU with 3 losses lol.
Bama is obvious
Clemson is obvious
Oregon at 12-1, P5 Champ, and quality loss in week 1 would go
That leaves Texas and Wisconsin as your last option, and I think the committee would defer to UW having just 1 loss.
There is precedent for a 2 loss team to go, considering 2017 AU would have been a mortal lock had they beaten us in the SECCG. But Texas isn't getting in over another P5 champ with 1 loss that just beat OSU.
Bama is obvious
Clemson is obvious
Oregon at 12-1, P5 Champ, and quality loss in week 1 would go
That leaves Texas and Wisconsin as your last option, and I think the committee would defer to UW having just 1 loss.
There is precedent for a 2 loss team to go, considering 2017 AU would have been a mortal lock had they beaten us in the SECCG. But Texas isn't getting in over another P5 champ with 1 loss that just beat OSU.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:46 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:45 am to BHMKyle
Your scenario assumes no major upsets will happen. If there's one thing college football always provides, it upsets. It's what makes the game so great.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:47 am to BHMKyle
Bama
Clemson
Wisc
ND...or Georgia (UGA would have a very recent loss in this scenario)
Best guess...because that’s all it is at this point.
Clemson
Wisc
ND...or Georgia (UGA would have a very recent loss in this scenario)
Best guess...because that’s all it is at this point.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Hypothetical Playoff Scenario
Clemson and Bama both undefeated are in .
Georgia and Oregon the other two.
Oregon would have won 12 in a row , I assume you meant they were 12-1 not 11-1.
I believe Georgia would pe picked over Ohio St or Wisconsin.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
Man, that's tough, but I'd have to say...
1. Bama
2. Wisconsin
3. Clemson
4. Georgia, (maybe Ohio State)
5. UGA/OSU
6. LSU
7. Texas
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma
10. Notre Dame
11. Auburn
12. Florida
I don't think they'd leave Clemson out in this scenario, but maybe this is the year when they finally punish a pitiful schedule. I think the discussion comes down to UGA and Ohio St. in this scenario for that 4th spot. I could see them picking UGA for playing a bit of a harder schedule, (and looking good while doing it), but they may or may not think Ohio St. was the better team. Truly a sticky situation.
1. Bama
2. Wisconsin
3. Clemson
4. Georgia, (maybe Ohio State)
5. UGA/OSU
6. LSU
7. Texas
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma
10. Notre Dame
11. Auburn
12. Florida
I don't think they'd leave Clemson out in this scenario, but maybe this is the year when they finally punish a pitiful schedule. I think the discussion comes down to UGA and Ohio St. in this scenario for that 4th spot. I could see them picking UGA for playing a bit of a harder schedule, (and looking good while doing it), but they may or may not think Ohio St. was the better team. Truly a sticky situation.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:51 am to BHMKyle
A one loss conference champion has never been snubbed in favor of a one-loss team that failed to win their conference in the CFB Playoff era. The teams that have gotten in who didn’t win their conference like 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Bama got in over two loss teams. In your scenario, Oregon will make the CFB Playoff along with Bama, Clemson, and Wisconsin. Plus it will take care of the headache of choosing between LSU and Georgia along with the other one-loss teams like OU and Ohio State.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:53 am to BHMKyle
Is this post sponsored by Tylenol? Cuz my head hearts after reading it.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:01 pm to BHMKyle
In that scenario, Clemson, Bama, and Wisconsin would definitely be in...
The fourth spot would come down to Oregon and UGA...while UGA would have the better resume, wouldn't surprise me to see the committee go with a 1-loss conference champion Oregon. The other two times that 1-loss non-conference champions made it to the play-offs, you had multiple Power 5 conferences with multi-loss champions...
The fourth spot would come down to Oregon and UGA...while UGA would have the better resume, wouldn't surprise me to see the committee go with a 1-loss conference champion Oregon. The other two times that 1-loss non-conference champions made it to the play-offs, you had multiple Power 5 conferences with multi-loss champions...
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:23 pm to BHMKyle
Alabama, Clemson, Wisc all in. Last spot will be out of LSU/Ga, but thinking LSU would get the nod.
LSU road win vs TX (B12 champ), close road loss vs Bama > close home win vs ND, close neutral (although basically home in ATL) loss to Bama. Yes Ga has an SEC East champ, but LSU would have that too if they were East and Ga West.
LSU road win vs TX (B12 champ), close road loss vs Bama > close home win vs ND, close neutral (although basically home in ATL) loss to Bama. Yes Ga has an SEC East champ, but LSU would have that too if they were East and Ga West.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:25 pm to BHMKyle
1. Bama
2. Clem's Son
3. Wisconsin
4. LSU
Here's why: Wisconsin would have avenged their lone loss. And is a major conference champ. Both things the Cmte likes.
LSU over Texas for obvious reasons.
LSU over UGA because LSU would have lost a close one at Bama, while UGA would have lost a more recent one to Bama on a neutral field.
LSU over Oregon because PAC12 not as respected as SEC.
LSU over ND because clearly better resume.
LSU over the other 1-loss non-conference-champs (OSU and OU) because better resume and better quality loss.
2. Clem's Son
3. Wisconsin
4. LSU
Here's why: Wisconsin would have avenged their lone loss. And is a major conference champ. Both things the Cmte likes.
LSU over Texas for obvious reasons.
LSU over UGA because LSU would have lost a close one at Bama, while UGA would have lost a more recent one to Bama on a neutral field.
LSU over Oregon because PAC12 not as respected as SEC.
LSU over ND because clearly better resume.
LSU over the other 1-loss non-conference-champs (OSU and OU) because better resume and better quality loss.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:35 pm to BHMKyle
This is really not as tough as you think it is. It will be Clemson, Bama, and Wisconsin for sure and then a debate between Georgia and Oregon.
The other teams is fluff that will be good for debates but won't really matter.
And the final answer will depend on how each of those two teams games end up during the season. Without knowing that, I'll give the edge to Oregon. But there's no respect for Pac 12, so if Georgia is dominant all year and loses a close one to Bama, they could easily get the nod.
The other teams is fluff that will be good for debates but won't really matter.
And the final answer will depend on how each of those two teams games end up during the season. Without knowing that, I'll give the edge to Oregon. But there's no respect for Pac 12, so if Georgia is dominant all year and loses a close one to Bama, they could easily get the nod.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:42 pm to BHMKyle
I know everyone will assume Clemson is in due to being undefeated, but if A&M winds up 7-5 (very possible), then Clemson would have gone the entire season without a game against a ranked opponent unless Virginia has a good year and they meet up in the ACC Title Game. All the other teams in your scenario would have faced multiple ranked teams. Hasn't the committee been clear that they want to see teams play tough schedules? Clemson's schedule would be on par with a 13-0 Boise State's schedule, and nobody would even seriously mention Boise for the playoff
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:19 pm to BHMKyle
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia/Oregon/LSU are only ones to have a shot at #4 imo. Depends how dominating their other wins are, but I say UGA would get the nod.
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia/Oregon/LSU are only ones to have a shot at #4 imo. Depends how dominating their other wins are, but I say UGA would get the nod.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:31 pm to BHMKyle
Clemson, Alabama, Wisconsin, Oregon.
I couldn't be mad at 4 undefeated or 1-loss conference champs getting in over other 1-loss teams no matter how strong they look.
If not Oregon, then the popular answer here would be LSU or UGA. They would have the same record against common opponents, 4-1. So I guess the eye test gets the nudge.
I couldn't be mad at 4 undefeated or 1-loss conference champs getting in over other 1-loss teams no matter how strong they look.
If not Oregon, then the popular answer here would be LSU or UGA. They would have the same record against common opponents, 4-1. So I guess the eye test gets the nudge.
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