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#17 a 3.5 point favorite over #8. What’s up with that?
Posted on 9/15/19 at 5:59 pm
Posted on 9/15/19 at 5:59 pm
Vegas thinks Auburn is a pretender?
14
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:00 pm to Hugh McElroy
At home which is generally viewed as worth 7 points. But nice thread I guess.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:01 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Vegas thinks Auburn is a pretender?
Us Auburn fans aren't quite convinced yet either
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:01 pm to WarEagleTho
quote:
At home which is generally viewed as worth 7 points.
No it's not. 3 to 4 points at the most
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:01 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:Seems that way. Go ahead and bet 1k on aTm to cover. Easy money!
Vegas thinks Auburn is a pretender?
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:01 pm to Hugh McElroy
You get 3 for being at home and Vegas thinks A&M is .5 points better?
Auburn is 3-0 ATS this season.
Auburn is 3-0 ATS this season.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:01 pm to WarEagleTho
quote:
home which is generally viewed as worth 7 point
Ha! No.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:02 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:To be fair, ive heard many on tRant say Auburns home field advantage is worth at least a TD. Amirite?
Ha! No.
This post was edited on 9/15/19 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:06 pm to WarEagleTho
quote:
At home which is generally viewed as worth 7 points. But nice thread I guess.
Homefield advantage is worth 3.5
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:06 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Vegas thinks Auburn is a pretender?
No they don’t. We aren’t a “pretender”, but every single poll released so far is a sports media conglomerate attempt to stay relevant. If little tiny numbers didnt appear next to team names in the first few weeks, then what’s the
point of watching. A&M is the better team now and Vegas knows this. Stop paying attention to the distracting little font numbers that actually don’t mean much at this point.
Sheep gon sheep
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:10 pm to ChexMix
I feel like it is. Jordan Hare is the toughest venue Bama plays at it seems.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:11 pm to Hugh McElroy
Preseason polls don’t matter and shake out by the time the first playoff rankings come out.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:42 pm to labamafan
quote:
Teams that deserve a point-spread advantage are the teams that consistently cover on their home field. Conversely, if a team never covers the number at home, then it should get fewer than 2.5 points. Some even get less than a point. While ESPN did a decent job of making PAE, it is solely based on points scored above the FPI power rankings, and not the Vegas closing number. With that in mind, my home-field advantage is weighted on an against-the-spread number from a three- and 10-year sample size. While the three-year home-field ATS record could represent changes in recruiting classes, coaching or stadium dynamics, a 10-year sample gives enough iterations to find the mean of home-field advantage.
Here is a formula that attempts to project how many points are baked in to HFA per game based on comparing home, road and neutral spreads over the past 10 seasons for each SEC team
Arkansas 3.24
Mississippi Sate 3.15
South Carolina 2.58
Ole Miss 2.57
Auburn: 2.56
Vanderbilt 2.49
LSU 2.38
Alabama 2.30
Missouri 2.14
Georgia: 1.89
Florida 1.85
Texas A&M 1.81
Tennessee 1.32
Kentucky 1.25
LINK
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:46 pm to Hugh McElroy
It depends on the home field advantage but rule of thumb is 3 pts.
Your ranking isn’t indicative of your talent. It’s what you deserve after Clemson throttled you.
3.5 is due to a freshman QB in a hostile environment.
A&M needs to go all out for this one.
They’re gonna lose to Bama, Georgia and LSU. If they drop this one to Auburn your gonna be close on bowl eligibility.
Your ranking isn’t indicative of your talent. It’s what you deserve after Clemson throttled you.
3.5 is due to a freshman QB in a hostile environment.
A&M needs to go all out for this one.
They’re gonna lose to Bama, Georgia and LSU. If they drop this one to Auburn your gonna be close on bowl eligibility.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:53 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Vegas thinks Auburn is a pretender?
This game will be determined by Auburn keeping up with aTm scoring pace or stopping aTm scoring. The latter is the more likely game plan for Auburn. Auburn is not running the ball well and has three WR's as questionable on Statfox injury report.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 6:56 pm to Choctaw
quote:Generally, yes. But weird shite always seems to happen at JH, so a full TD seems appropriate.
No it's not. 3 to 4 points at the most
Posted on 9/15/19 at 7:16 pm to Solo Cam
quote:
They’re gonna lose to Bama, Georgia and LSU
Posted on 9/15/19 at 7:27 pm to 3down10
quote:
Homefield advantage is worth 3.5
So Neutral would be pick'em.
At Auburn would be -3.5 for Auburn. 7 points difference between home and home.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 7:27 pm to WarEagleTho
quote:
At home which is generally viewed as worth 7 points.
false
Posted on 9/15/19 at 7:31 pm to Hugh McElroy
A&M has a loss, whether it is to the #1 team or not, that messed up their ranking. Auburn is undefeated. I think A&M has the better team, but they need to prove it.
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