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Auburn on the Bubble
Posted on 2/15/26 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 2/15/26 at 4:16 pm
The loss last night was a missed opportunity but it didn’t hurt us. Coming into the day, we were #31… an 8 seed… in a consensus Bracketology.
Yes, we lost but look what the teams just behind us did this weekend:
#32 Iowa lost by 21 to Purdue.
#33 UCF lost to West Virginia
#34 SMU lost to Syracuse
#35 Indiana lost by 20 to Illinois
#36 Texas A&M lost by 13 to Vandy
#37 St Mary’s won an easy one against Pacific
#38 USC did not play
#39 Georgia lost by 16 to Oklahoma
#40 Miami had a big win over #27 NC State
#41 UCLA lost by 30 to Michigan
#42 Missouri lost by 17 to Texas
#43 Santa Clara lost by 8 to Gonzaga
There is a good chance we actually stay an 8-seed in most bracketologies.
If we beat MSU on Wednesday, we’re right back on track. Just need to win.
Yes, we lost but look what the teams just behind us did this weekend:
#32 Iowa lost by 21 to Purdue.
#33 UCF lost to West Virginia
#34 SMU lost to Syracuse
#35 Indiana lost by 20 to Illinois
#36 Texas A&M lost by 13 to Vandy
#37 St Mary’s won an easy one against Pacific
#38 USC did not play
#39 Georgia lost by 16 to Oklahoma
#40 Miami had a big win over #27 NC State
#41 UCLA lost by 30 to Michigan
#42 Missouri lost by 17 to Texas
#43 Santa Clara lost by 8 to Gonzaga
There is a good chance we actually stay an 8-seed in most bracketologies.
If we beat MSU on Wednesday, we’re right back on track. Just need to win.
2
Posted on 2/15/26 at 4:21 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
but it didn’t hurt us.
Posted on 2/15/26 at 4:23 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
The loss last night was a missed opportunity
Given the circumstances and the fact Arkansas was mad I'd argue that was one of our most predictable losses
Posted on 2/15/26 at 5:33 pm to jangalang
Exactly. I think we could all see it coming. At this point, this Auburn team only has 3 losses that Id say should have been avoided:
@ Georgia
@ Missouri
Texas A&M
One of those was in OT. Another had a game winning shot reversed. None of those are horrific losses in terms of our resume, but they were winnable games than had they gone the other direction, we’d already be a Tournament lock.
Losing at Arkansas is probably to be expected… especially without Hall. We’re 1-1 against the Hogs and +8 in points on the season. I’ll take that.
Now let’s just beat State.
@ Georgia
@ Missouri
Texas A&M
One of those was in OT. Another had a game winning shot reversed. None of those are horrific losses in terms of our resume, but they were winnable games than had they gone the other direction, we’d already be a Tournament lock.
Losing at Arkansas is probably to be expected… especially without Hall. We’re 1-1 against the Hogs and +8 in points on the season. I’ll take that.
Now let’s just beat State.
Posted on 2/15/26 at 5:41 pm to AUTiger789
Yeah those these three losses stink.
Our season would have appeared better with those three wins and 17-8, not 14-11
Our season would have appeared better with those three wins and 17-8, not 14-11
Posted on 2/15/26 at 6:45 pm to jangalang
quote:
Our season would have appeared better with those three wins and 17-8, not 14-11
Yep. And we’d be a 5-seed at the moment.
On the other end of the spectrum, where would we be had we lost that first game to Bethune Cookman??? I don’t think a 13-11 record with a Q4 loss would get us over the hump. Thank God we avoided disaster that night.
Posted on 2/15/26 at 10:54 pm to AUTiger789
This is not a tournament level team. We suck. Give it up guys
Posted on 2/16/26 at 5:03 am to kung fu kenny
LOL. Not like they can beat anyone.
Posted on 2/16/26 at 5:33 am to kung fu kenny
quote:
This is not a tournament level team.
If we improve at shooting the ball, passing, defending the three, protecting the rim, and ………,
It’s going to take a miracle to make NCAA tournament.
Posted on 2/16/26 at 6:12 am to makersmark1
and in bounding
- it's so painful
- it hurts when it counts
- and every team knows it
and making an all alone fast break
- without help
- or stumbling
- can't count the number
and?
- it's so painful
- it hurts when it counts
- and every team knows it
and making an all alone fast break
- without help
- or stumbling
- can't count the number
and?
quote:
This is not a tournament level team.
Posted on 2/16/26 at 6:58 am to makersmark1
quote:
If we improve at shooting the ball, passing, defending the three, protecting the rim, and
You mean if we can replace the whole team before the tournament??
This team is a waste of money.
This post was edited on 2/16/26 at 7:00 am
Posted on 2/16/26 at 10:01 am to SingleMalt1973
Auburn basketball being down gives me more hope that the football team is gonna start improving
Posted on 2/18/26 at 12:02 pm to kung fu kenny
quote:.
This is not a tournament level team. We suck. Give it up guys
Meh I think we're a top 40 team. Defintely not top 32.
Just a weird group of guys. Reminds me of BPs early years at AU. The team is like a pickup squad at the rec center.
Posted on 2/18/26 at 4:21 pm to FahQGump
quote:That's exactly where my mind went! I', really excited about football season this year. Basketball? I fully expect us to make the tournament, then being shown the door after the first game. This team has zero chemistry.
Auburn basketball being down gives me more hope that the football team is gonna start improving
Posted on 2/19/26 at 3:38 pm to AUtigR24
quote:
Meh I think we're a top 40 team. Defintely not top 32
Yes. We’re probably in the 35-40 range.
It just so happens that the 46 best teams/resumes typically get selected to go to the Big Dance barring upsets in conference tourney’s that steal bids. Auburn is one of the Top 46 teams, hands down.
We have a #34 NET. We have a #34 KenPom rating. We have a #40 resume average (KPI/SOR/WAB). Everything points to Auburn STILL being included.
However. We have to finish above .500 and unfortunately in modern times, the worst W/L record that ever received a bid was 17-14…. That was Michigan in 2022.
Auburn 2026 and Michigan 2022 have a lot of similarities:
Overall Record:
Auburn 2026: 14-12 (currently)
Michigan ‘22: 17-14
Quad 1:
Auburn 2026: 4-10
Michigan ‘22: 5-10
Quad 2:
Auburn 2026: 2-2
Michigan ‘22: 3-3
Quad 3:
Auburn 2026: 2-0
Michigan ‘22: 6-1
Quad 4:
Auburn 2026: 6-0
Michigan ‘22: 3-0
Against Top 10 NET opponents:
Auburn 2026: 1-4
Michigan ‘22: 0-1
Against Top 25 NET opponents:
Auburn 2026: 3-8
Michigan ‘22: 3-6
Against Top 50 NET opponents:
Auburn 2026: 5-10
Michigan ‘22: 6-11
Against Top 100 NET opponents:
Auburn 2026: 6-12
Michigan ‘22: 11-12
Against Opponents outside the NET Top 100:
Auburn 2026: 8-0
Michigan ‘22: 6-2
NET Ranking:
Auburn 2026: 34
Michigan ‘22: 34
Torvik:
Auburn 2026: 37
Michigan ‘22: 27
Torvik WAB:
Auburn 2026: 48
Michigan ‘22: 56
KPI:
Auburn 2026: 39
Michigan ‘22: 37
SOR:
Auburn 2026: 43
Michigan ‘22: 47
BPI:
Auburn 2026: 26
Michigan ‘22: 27
KenPom:
Auburn 2026: 34
Michigan ‘22: 33
I mean… that’s about as similar as two resumes can get. That Michigan team received an 11-seed and managed to avoid even having to play in Dayton. They were rated #42 by the committee… teams 43-46 played in Dayton.
If Auburn can win 3 more games plus win one game in Nashville, we finish 18-15 and I think we make the Tournament.
LSU and Ole Miss at home are very winnable games. To get that third we’ll either need to beat Kentucky Saturday or beat Oklahoma in Norman next week in all likelihood. I think we can do that.
This post was edited on 2/19/26 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 2/19/26 at 3:56 pm to AUTiger789
One other comparison for Auburn 2026 and Michigan 2022:
Auburn is currently 5-11 against the projected field. Michigan was 6-12 that year against the field.
Auburn is currently 9-1 against opponents outside the projected field. Michigan was 10-2 against such teams that year.
Again, very similar.
Auburn is currently 5-11 against the projected field. Michigan was 6-12 that year against the field.
Auburn is currently 9-1 against opponents outside the projected field. Michigan was 10-2 against such teams that year.
Again, very similar.
Posted on 2/20/26 at 12:55 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
One other comparison for Auburn 2026 and Michigan 2022:
Updated Net ranking and projected seed won’t come out until Monday?
Posted on 2/20/26 at 7:35 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
If Auburn can win 3 more games plus win one game in Nashville, we finish 18-15 and I think we make the Tournament.
Games in Nashville never count. Unless you win it all.
Posted on 2/20/26 at 9:35 pm to SECdragonmaster
quote:
Games in Nashville never count. Unless you win it all.
Not true really. They just don't count after the first couple days. They tend to ignore the final rounds.
Texas basically made the tournament last year by winning games during the SEC tourney.
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