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SP+ has Indiana at -13.5
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:12 am
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:12 am
Huge difference between that and the Vegas line of -7.5. This seems like a lot of value. Translates to Indiana has over an 80% chance to win
This is one of the bigger differences I have seen in one of these CFP matchups
This is one of the bigger differences I have seen in one of these CFP matchups
13
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:13 am to UltimaParadox
tDecline
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:14 am to UltimaParadox
Indiana at -13.5 just doesn't jive with me. If I gambled I'd be all over it. Vegas line I wouldn't touch.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:16 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
SP+ has Indiana at -13.5
Indiana -fiddy.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:16 am to TheOtherWhiteMeat
quote:
If I gambled I'd be all over it
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:17 am to UltimaParadox
Play a ton on it...very clearly a mistake.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:18 am to TheOtherWhiteMeat
Yeah I’ve never bet before and I really want to. I think Alabama wins big.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:20 am to StringedInstruments
I don’t think they win big but I think indianas gonna hit a brick wall against their D and I think Bama can win. Still think it’s gonna take a big turnover and/or ST play for Bama to pull it out.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:21 am to prouddawg
Bookies getting RICH on the OhioSt and IU lines.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:25 am to prouddawg
quote:
I don’t think they win big but I think indianas gonna hit a brick wall against their D and I think Bama can win. Still think it’s gonna take a big turnover and/or ST play for Bama to pull it out.
This is my thought. I have Indiana by 4.
ETA: A 21-17ish type game.
This post was edited on 1/1/26 at 11:27 am
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:28 am to UltimaParadox
I think we all saw how soft ohio state was up front. Indiana loses to bama today
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:33 am to UltimaParadox
Oregon is killing TTU.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:34 am to TheOtherWhiteMeat
Think the rain is keeping the Vegas line down to only -7.5.
Think Indiana would be -10+ if no rain
Think Indiana would be -10+ if no rain
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:35 am to GeauxBurrow312
Aaand then they immediately do that full retard 4th and 1 play call. Take the points or go up the gut, not some wildcat outside run
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:37 am to UltimaParadox
Vegas doesn’t think Indiana’s computer metrics scale vs. good teams. We kinda saw that a few times this year.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:38 am to UltimaParadox
A lot of dumb money on Bama +7.5
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:38 am to Tuscaloosa
They are also missing the national TFL leader now. Which won’t reflect in metrics
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:57 am to UltimaParadox
I suspect the SP+ number is reflective of the data from November into the SECCG when Bama flat out wasn’t very good due to injuries and the Vegas line is reflective of them thinking we’re going to see October Bama which was a top 5 team.
So we’ll find out this afternoon if the computers are under valuing Bama because of non reflective data points or if Vegas/fans are underrating IU because of the jerseys/reputations.
So we’ll find out this afternoon if the computers are under valuing Bama because of non reflective data points or if Vegas/fans are underrating IU because of the jerseys/reputations.
Posted on 1/1/26 at 11:59 am to UltimaParadox
I believe Ohio State had a 80% of beating Miami.
We saw how that worked out
We saw how that worked out
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:00 pm to UltimaParadox
Bama doesn't have a chance .....
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