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What's the average amount of teams that could potentially win a CFB NC?
Posted on 12/5/25 at 12:31 am
Posted on 12/5/25 at 12:31 am
Let's not just look at this year, let's factor in every year.
I'd say that typically only 5 or 6 teams could win it all on any given year.. Even that might be a stretch.
They need to leave the playoffs alone and stop trying to expand it. 12 is more than enough at this level.
If FAT SEXY were in charge we'd be dialing this bad boy down to 8 and letting it stay there. Only thing missing is a more refined selection of teams.
I'd say that typically only 5 or 6 teams could win it all on any given year.. Even that might be a stretch.
They need to leave the playoffs alone and stop trying to expand it. 12 is more than enough at this level.
If FAT SEXY were in charge we'd be dialing this bad boy down to 8 and letting it stay there. Only thing missing is a more refined selection of teams.
9
Posted on 12/5/25 at 12:33 am to FAT SEXY
less than
Posted on 12/5/25 at 12:36 am to FAT SEXY
Consolidate conferences, down to a total of 8
Conference champions only in the playoffs
Conference champions only in the playoffs
This post was edited on 12/5/25 at 12:39 am
Posted on 12/5/25 at 6:51 am to FAT SEXY
Theoretically anyone can win it that make it in but only 2-3 have an argument.
Posted on 12/5/25 at 7:03 am to FAT SEXY
I’d start by saying there are roughly 20 or less programs that can win a title.
3 in the acc, 8-9 in sec, 6 in big and nd. The three acc schools could all be good at once, along with nd. Sec- don’t think 9 could ever be good in one season, schedule won’t allow that. But I’d think 6 could be good at same time without beating each other out contention. So I’ll give the big six as well. Add in nd and I say 16 teams is probably the most teams that could actually win a title in a single season. But it’d be super rare for all the teams capable of winning one to actually be good at same time.
3 in the acc, 8-9 in sec, 6 in big and nd. The three acc schools could all be good at once, along with nd. Sec- don’t think 9 could ever be good in one season, schedule won’t allow that. But I’d think 6 could be good at same time without beating each other out contention. So I’ll give the big six as well. Add in nd and I say 16 teams is probably the most teams that could actually win a title in a single season. But it’d be super rare for all the teams capable of winning one to actually be good at same time.
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:13 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:
Consolidate conferences, down to a total of 8
Conference champions only in the playoffs
I think this is a terrible idea. So it wont be the 8 best teams vying for the championship, but the 8 conference champs, even if the three best teams play in the same conference? No, no, no!!!
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:16 am to theballguy
quote:
Theoretically anyone can win it
Key injuries in the conference championship game greatly impacts a teams potential to have success in the playoffs. That's why I am for more than conference champions
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:16 am to FAT SEXY
I believe the data shows that since the recruit tracking industry started, no team has won the NC that didn't have an elite ratio greater than 1.0 Meaning their roster count of 4 and 5 stars is greater than 3 stars and below. Teams that achieve this consistently to build the overall roster is probably around ten.
Rodo
Rodo
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:20 am to Toroballistic
An 8 team playoff of only conference champions is actually a 16 team playoff when you factor in conference championship games though. At that point its up to the conferences to make sure their tiebreakers allow the best two teams play for the conference title.
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:22 am to FAT SEXY
This year, as of today only Ohio state, Indiana, or Georgia have a shot. Georgia has got to get healthy though.
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:26 am to FAT SEXY
quote:
I'd say that typically only 5 or 6 teams could win it all on any given year.. Even that might be a stretch.
Id say most years its in the 3 to 6 range. Some years its just one or two, some years maybe as many as 8. I cant think of a season where more than 8 teams had a real shot.
For this season, it looks like there are only 5 teams who have a reasonable shot.
ESPN has it as:
OSU - 26.9%
IU - 26.7%
OR - 12.2%
TTU - 9%
UGA - 8.4%
Everyone else is sub 5% chance
This post was edited on 12/5/25 at 9:26 am
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:30 am to FAT SEXY
3
Ohio St
Ga
Bama
Ohio St
Ga
Bama
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:32 am to Hussss
Bama got pimp slapped by a flawed OU team at home.
Rodo
Rodo
Posted on 12/5/25 at 9:51 am to Rodo
quote:
Bama got pimp slapped by a flawed OU team at home.
No they didn’t.
Oklahoma’s longest drive of the day was 41 yards. Alabama had twice as many first downs, was better on third and fourth down, had 200 yards more offense, held Oklahoma to just over 200 yards of offense, and led time of possession by 10 minutes. All stats but one say Alabama should have won by two touchdowns. They didn’t win because they lost the turnover battle 0-3 and gave up a big special teams play.
Alabama simply could not keep from giving Oklahoma the ball. Oklahoma deserved to win. But this revisionist history that they came in and dominated Alabama is just false. Alabama was the better team and wins 9 times out of 10. But regardless, it counts as a loss the same as a 42-13 blowout does.
Posted on 12/5/25 at 10:36 am to FAT SEXY
2 or 3 prob..others have weaknesses like depth and such
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